It has been a long two months.
I have had two of the busiest months of my last five years and needless to say, I am knackered. I don’t know if I can remember everything that happened in the last 60 days but I’ll do my best to get everyone up to speed including what is going on in this rock-n-roll market.
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JULY & AUGUST RECAP
During the weekend of 16 to 18 July, I was busy running back and forth between WAI MY Batch 02 and the Investor Expo in K.L. If you want to catch the clip of the presentation, just click the picture below and let it load.
<– Click to watch video
The Expo was a memorable experience and many thanks to the graduates who came back to support the program. Their presence help convince a record number of people that WAT was what they needed to get themselves educated. To those graduates Melissa, Robert and Loon Kee, you have my heartfelt thanks.
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28 August saw WAT(SG)40 graduate. This was really another fun batch and the energy in this bunch made it great to teach every lesson.
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WAI JKT Batch 07 graduated on 01 August. This would be the last WAI that I would be doing in Jakarta. I had to quit the program because I wanted to teach less and trade more but found myself getting involved in other programs and public seminars. It became so bad that I hardly had time for my family anymore. I am sad to leave this program but I am happy and gratified about how far this program has come and for the many lives it has touched and changed.
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The following week saw me complete my last WAI in Malaysia. WAI MY Batch 03 graduated on 8 August at the glorious Sunway Lagoon Resort. This was truly a great batch of students and I couldn’t have asked for a better location to end my WAI career. My family came up with me for the weekend and that made it all the more memorable.
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Between 19 to 22 August, Singapore got its 22nd batch of investors as WA(SG)22 graduated after 4 brain-busting days.
On the same weekend, Adam and I had a forgettable Investfair 2010 at the Marina Bay Sands.
The entire event over the weekend was dogged by traffic problems getting to the venue as a result of the road closures leading in and out of the place because of the Youth Olympic Games. This had a terrible effect on the people traffic at the event. The turnout was poor. The poorest of any event I have ever done. To make matters worse, the venue was not the best place to do such an event. It was an acoustical nightmare. No matter how loud you shouted through the mike, you couldn’t even hear yourself.
But kudos to my Coaches, Roy, Dianah, Leon, Gabriel, Ann, Emily, Agnes, Jason, Soon Ghee and the staff of AKLTG for pulling off a record number of signings at such an event. While the others struggle to get anything off the ground, I was fortunate to have this team to make this event something to remember. You people ROCK!
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WAT(MY)11 graduated on 30 August as my largest ever batch in any country with 47 newly minted traders. This batch was energetic, eager and definitely aggressive about learning everything I had to offer. And they are not done yet! Thank to Yap and Gary and all the others who came back to help out. It would have been a shit-fight had I done this alone.
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And on September 01, Singapore’s largest batch of traders graduated with 41 people. WAT(SG)41 was a benchmark class in that they will be the first class to officially get the optional 8 Week Hand-holding Support Program in Singapore. This program, designed and run by Roy, will be supported by the other coaches such as Dianah, Leon and Alicia and brings Henry in as its senior trainer. This program is now a standard addition in all countries after much feedback and tweaking to get the system perfect in JKT and MY over the last year. This was the brainchild of Lawrence Chua. I hope to have him back in my fold one day soon.
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FAREWELL WEALTH ACADEMY INVESTOR (WAI) JAKARTA AND MALAYSIA
My retirement from Wealth Academy Investor brings to an end an era that saw me grow from a nobody into a savvy investment teacher. I take with me many, many fond memories from all the batches we ran in Jakarta and Malaysia and keep with me the many friends I’ve made from this program.
It is with a heavy heart that I leave this program behind after almost 4 years. Adam and I worked to make it the best it could be and revived what was once an almost dead idea to bring it up to become Asia Most Powerful Wealth Creation Program. I am proud to have been a big part of this life-changing workshop and would like to thank each and every participant that came and learned and experienced what we had to offer. I pray for your success and continued growth.
Singapore, however, will still have to put up with me at Wealth Academy! I am not leaving this one as this is where it all started and I am still terribly passionate about it. I am still the incumbent partner-trainer alongside Adam as this version of the program does not take me away from my family for a whole weekend. So I will still be around to give each and everyone of you a really hard time! MWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Now I will be able to focus my attention and energies to my own Pattern Trader Tutorial (WAT) and really get going on my long overdue 4th book. I will also be getting out up to three new products to add to the Candlestick and Breakout Patterns Quick Reference Cards. I also want to get my Trader’s Club up and running full steam now that the Trader’s Room is 100% functional. There is so much more I want to do and with this ease up in my schedule, I will deliver.
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A WORD FROM A WAT GRADUATE
I received this beautiful word of thanks from a Pattern Trader Graduate and this really lit up my day. It is for this reason that I teach and continue to change people’s lives.
Hello Conrad,
It was the last lesson of Wat41 and yet I have the strange feeling that it is just the beginning of my journey to the financial world. I have had my fair bit of exposure in trading but never have I dreamed that there were so much more to learn. I have learnt in every minute of the class and with the acquired knowledge, I managed to continue to learn outside the class. I was able to make better sense out of the daily news. I was able to speak more intelligently with my bankers and I believe, given time to practice, I shall be able to manage more of my trading personally.
I have paid lesser dollars in attending classes before but yours is one in which every cent is worth paying for. None of the classes I had attended were as lengthy as yours which was at least more than 4 hrs in a row. However, I have surprised myself that I could remain alert and enjoyed the learning throughout the lesson. I love your teaching style and I appreciate your efforts to deliver the lessons in the most relaxing manner and cleverly passing your knowledge over with not only spoken words and visuals but also your actions. I laughed so much not at your actions but that your ‘acting’ had reminded me of my past ignorance in handling my trading.
Coincidentally, yesterday was also teacher’s day. I didn’t get the chance to thank you personally. May I say, “Thank you, Conrad. You are a great teacher. You are sincere in your teaching and you have wanted your students to learn more and more. I am proud to be one of your students. I can see you really enjoy your work. However, don’t over-work and remember to take good care of yourself”.
Thank you,
Fr Shirley Seah
WAT41
And to the many students and graduates who sent me their thoughts and wishes on Teacher’s Day, I would like to thank each and every one of you. It is you who have made me the teacher I am. For that, I am eternally grateful to you all for giving me that chance. And for that, I will continue to strive to always get better and humbler.
Thank you from the deepest part of me.
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THE MARKET GOING FORWARD
All I can say at this point is that the market is behaving exactly the way I expected it would at the start of the year. It hasn’t been easy to make money. Of course there is money being made but it hasn’t been easy. I have never worked so hard in my 5 years of on-line trading as I’ve done in the past 8 months to make money. This is really a tough market and I suspect we haven’t seen the worst of it yet.
Volumes continue to weaken in the equity market while the smart money runs into fixed income securities. In spite of a 2.5% rally on Wednesday 2 September, there is little to convince us that there is any silver lining going forward into what seems like an inevitable double dip. Japan’s slide into oblivion is also not encouraging as the global economy struggles to find leadership amongst the leading economies of America, China, Japan and the Euro Zone.
For now, the months of May, June, July and August have not disappointed in delivering their usual dreaded and unpredictable trends and for this year, the unexpected surprise of volatility. I reckon September is also going to be more of the same. And let’s not even discuss October yet.
I will be doing a complete analysis on the markets and the American economic health later in the month. I am sure we will be in for a shock.
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In summary, my calendar for September going forward is looking more sane and I should be able to get my life back. My goal of teaching less and trading more looks more realistic now.
Bottom line is that I will have more time with the family and get some rest … finally.
Assess Youself
I thought I’d take a different spin on posting today and provide you statistical junkies with all sorts of on-line assessments so that you can “find” yourself and maybe help some of you with your … um … issues!
No mumbo-jumo this week so let’s just cut to the chase and let’s have ourselves some fun!! Remember, it’s all about having fun and being able to laugh at ourselves.
Let’s start with your BMTI by using the Jung Typology Test™. This test will help you find:
- Your type formula according to Carl Jung and Isabel Myers-Briggs typology along with the strengths of the preferences
- The description of your personality type
- The list of occupations and educational institutions where you can get relevant degree or training, most suitable for your personality type
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Now let’s move on to your Big Five Personality Test. This test measures what many psychologists consider to be the five fundamental dimensions of personality.
You can even make a comparison Personality test by comparing yourself with say, your mom, brother, sister, etc by taking the Twins Interactive Personality Test.
Or maybe you’d like something more lighthearted and amazingly spot on – The Personality DNA Test
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Now for everybody’s most quizzed test – The IQ Test.
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If the test above was not your cup of tea, then the Am I Dumb? Common Sense Test should suit you better!
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How about a Fear/Phobia Test? Or are too scared to take this one?
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Love anyone? Check out Gary Chapman’s test for the 5 Languages of Love with his;
Personal Profiling and 30 Second Quizzes
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Test the strength of your Marriage with the Marriage Assessment: How Strong Is Your Marriage?
Or take the Marriage Compatibility Test And Evaluation
And if you’re not married and wondering if it will work out, do the Marriage Readiness Test to see if you and your partner are up for it yet.
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Are you an Alpha Male/Female? I think this one speaks for itself.
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If you’re into Trivia, this site will keep you occupied for hours! Fun Trivia Quizzes
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This is my favorite – What kind of Trader are you? Find out your Trading Personality with this wonderfully (and eerily) accurate test.
Well I hope you had fun! Feel free to feedback your results by sharing your comments here.
Why I Keep Long Hair
This is one question many want to ask and few actually dare to ask. So for what ever it’s worth, here it is once and for all – the “long story” I usually use as an excuse to not explain it.
I was born into the hippie era in the 60s and grew up on songs by Peter, Paul and Mary, The Beatles, The Monkees, Seekers, etc. Since then, I was always enthralled with the long haired concept of the free-n-easy carefree lifestyle that was associated with being a hippie. Then in my teen years, the long haired concept took a turn as I fell in love with the beach-bum surfer lifestyle. As an avid surfer and a son-of-the-beach, the only thing missing from this total concept was the long hair because it was disallowed in school. Yet I longed for the day I would grow my locks out beyond my shoulders.
Between 1983 to 1985, the hair story took its most tragic challenge – National Service. Enough said. But after completing my national obligation, I found myself no longer bound by restrictive rules regarding my hair! I grew it out and within 7 months (no kidding), my hair was down to my shoulders. I was, by then, a crew member in the film industry. While working, I kept my hair in place with a Levis bandanna and occasionally would put on a cap. I never tied it up in a pony tail nor slicked it back with grease (as was the fashion then). I loved the feel of free-flowing hair down my neck and back. After a little more than a year of growing it out, my hair was halfway down my back and the front reached my chest.
While growing it out, I made a curious observation – the more my hair grew, the better I became at my job and the more money I made. I made a few “dabbles” in the local equity market and made a nice profit. After five years, I quit the company and went solo as a Producer. I chose to maintain a length just below my shoulder blades and chest and kept it in place with a skull cap or bandanna. Most of the time, I let it loose or tied it in a loose pony tail. My career as an independent Producer soared and business was very good. I was winning 1st and 2nd prizes at lucky draws and even got a Group 2 prize win in Toto.
Then late in 1992, two events dictated that my long locks had to go – Reservist In-Camp Training and my marriage.
Business slowed after I came back from ICT and things got a little tight. I went through 13 years of ups and downs while I kept my hair short for the annual return for ICT. Between 1992 and 2005, I went through three major setbacks including my infamous bankruptcy in 2001. As I struggled with my trading in the early part of my On-Line Trading career, my hair remained cropped short and neat. I was formally released from Reservist duties in 2005 and after all those years and all the financial worries I had, I completely forgot about my hair.
My focus on putting every effort into my studies, research and trades distracted me from many things including household duties, my health and sometimes even my kids. I also neglected my hair and it inevitably grew out. I put in more hours reading and studying and before I knew it, my hair had grown and covered my ears and my neck. Trading improved. When I started teaching, I thought that a hair cut was in order to look “respectable” and credible but as soon as I lost my hair, my trades went down again. So I grew it out again and my ears have not seen the sun since and the rest is history.
As I look back, every time my hair was short, life had been a struggle. My best and most successful years have been when my hair was long. Call it Law of Attraction, call it superstition, fengshui or even pure nonsense … nothing, but nothing will ever make me cut my hair so short ever again. I will die with my long hair and will have it no other way.
I must be the only Bear who likes it “Long”.
Reflecting on the Past, Celebrating the Future
A PERSONAL MEMOIR
My 45th birthday came and went in an almost uneventful manner. But it marked a most significant moment in my life.
It started in Penang after completing 4 days of tutorial there. Lucy and I woke up in a hotel room at 7am to get ready to leave after breakfast. While checking out, the cashier noticed my birthday and quietly wished me. Our flight was delayed and we got back later than expected. I got an SMS from my dear Alison and that was the second wish for the day.
After getting back into Singapore, we rushed around to get the kids from the in-law’s and get lunch and run a few errands. I got a quick shut-eye before leaving for class at 6pm. Lucy decided not to come along as she was tired and wanted to spend time with the kids instead. Upon arriving at AKLTG, there were a few more quiet birthday wishes from the staff and some of my students.
The day ended with the end of the class. The market paid tribute to me by going bear at the start of the trading day. Driving home, I had some quiet time to myself and reflected on what had happened … not just today, but for the last 45 years of my life. Strains of Eagle’s “Hotel California” boomed through my car speakers and it brought me back to a time when this song was shit-hot – 1977 – when at the age of 13, I became an entrepreneur.
As a successful teenage entrepreneur, I had always harbored the dream of financially retiring by age 45. After leaving the Navy in 1985, I busted my ass to achieve this goal. As history has it written, I blew out several times with each failure outperforming the last. Each blow out pushed this dream further and further away and made it more and more unrealistic. The final blow came in 2001 when it seemed virtually impossible and mathematically improbable at 38 years of age and bankrupt.
Then, by 2006, my life was back on track but that dream of financial independence and freedom was still a long way off and still improbable with less than 3 years remaining. Although I had mathematically given up on that dream, I still kept it in sight on my Dream (Vision) Board. Deep within my heart, I still believed.
If there is one thing that this life has taught me, it would be that …
… success comes to those who work that dream the hardest and believe in it the longest.
During a conversation with Adam around the early part of 2008, I told him that I felt guilty that I was making big money now after only 3 years of hard work and barely a year after my bankruptcy discharge. What he told me then, echoed within those strains of “Hotel California” and made me think about my life and how all my past events have let me to this point in life. He said that it didn’t take me three years to achieve this success – rather, it took my teenage years of entrepreneurship, my 30 months in the service, 20 years in the media business and those awful years in bankruptcy – it was a culmination of joining the dots in my life that led me here. Everything in my past happened for a reason and it was to lead me to this point in my life. As I reflect on my past and ponder my future, as I drive along the PIE to go home to my loving wife and my beautiful kids, I realized that …
Birthdays celebrations are empty events unless you reflect on the past and celebrate the future – appreciate that all the past dots in your life have happened for a reason and celebrate where they are about to lead you to in the future.
No presents, no cake, no big hoo-ha … just me, myself and my trusty Suzuki with the Eagles to help me reminisce.
I would like to wish myself an extremely Happy 45th Birthday and congratulate myself for never giving up, for never losing sight, for never taking anything or anyone for granted and for each and every blessing I have received for which my dream has been delivered in spite of all the odds and failures in my first 45 years. I now have a new dream – to be happy with what I have and to help others realize their dreams.
Here’s to me as I celebrate the rest of my life which begins this November 2009.
Herd Instinct – Results of a Personal Poll
For about a month, during my rounds of Jakarta, Penang, Kuala Lumpur and here in Singapore, I have been taking a poll on what people are and have been trading as well as their results after periods of a year and more. The unofficial results did not surprise me but what was noticeable was the power of herd instinct and the lack of common sense in such instances.
What I would do is ask my crowd to raise their hands if they were trading equities, currencies, options, futures and any other derivative(s). Each time, the number of people trading currencies outweighed the nearest rival, which in most cases was equities and/or options. Futures had the smallest return and other derivatives accounted for slightly more numbers than futures.
Second part of my poll was to get a return on the number of people trading a specific instrument profitably. What I would do is ask those with raised hands for, in this case, currencies, to keep their hands up if they were making money from it. I would repeat the process for equities, options and so on. And each time, after getting the most hands raised for currencies, I also got the least hands raised for profitability. Equities had the most profitable traders for those trading more than two years while futures had the most hands up for profitable traders altogether. Other derivatives came in lowest and options were second last.
It didn’t surprise me that currencies had the most traders because most of the ads in the papers these days are for Forex Trading workshops. This was the case about four to seven years ago when options was the craze – ads for Options Trading flooded the papers then – and from my personal experience, I have little doubt that the winning population then was also a low return.
This is not about courses or workshops. This is about how influential herd instinct becomes that it throws all common sense out the window. At each of these polls, after revealing that currencies had the most traders with the lowest percentage of winners, why then, did so many of these losing traders still persist with trading an instrument that wasn’t making them money?
Just as it was four to seven years ago, it was perceived that options was easy and dozens flocked to trade it only to find out that options is the most difficult instrument to learn and apply successfully. Yet they persisted, believing that they would achieve success in spite of the obvious difficulties.
Today, everyone seems to think that forex is easy and are flocking to it in droves. The low percentage of winners bears testimony to a repeating pattern …
… it is so easy for a skillful and experienced predator to make his kill when the herd is larger, more ignorant and heavily populated with weak prey.
The reason, in my opinion, why futures traders were fewer and bore a higher percentage of winners than any other instrument is because these traders have found a niche in an instrument that takes a lot of practice and experience. Futures traders know the dangers of this instrument and trade it well because of this fear of the dangers that lurk at every dip and rally. If is not the easiest instrument to learn, practice and trade well. Therefore those that do are a bunch of highly dedicated and serious traders who have run the gauntlet and survived it to make it their mainstay. Plus, it is one of the most expensive trades in the market and not everyone can afford to trade it.
The same can be said for equity traders. These traders make up the second highest population of profitable traders. But the reasons for this high success rate are very different. Most of these profitable traders are those who have persisted in it for more than 1.5 years. Even through a bearish year like last year, these traders have run down and up with the market, survived and prospered from it. Some applied a ‘buy-and-hold” attitude that in the long run, always is a profitable strategy. But we’re talking about the few who have the holding power, the extra ton of cash to stomach the test of time that is equity trading.
Not many have such deep pockets, dedication, discipline and patience. So these lesser endowed masses flock to the next best instrument that will allow them to trade for “big bucks” with little outlay and on huge margin – Forex. Years ago, the same dream was sold about options – low risk, high leverage and affordable trades.
It is this sort of attractiveness that drives the flocks to such instruments. These flocks are often not serious traders (in most cases, they’re gamblers looking for the quick buck with little outlay) looking for the ‘Holy Grail’ that will get them rich quick. And it is these traders that get preyed on by experienced predators as their ignorance, greed and lack of discipline overpopulate the instrument. Forex, like options before it, becomes the killing fields for many a newbie.
But they persist. They pump more money into it insisting that it can be done. They give it one more go. They tell themselves that they’ve learnt their lessons and are now smarter and better prepared for a new run at the gauntlet. All I see is more ignorance coming back with more money for the taking.
The very fine line that makes the difference between a trader and a gambler is that the gambler never knows when to quit.
Equity trading may be unglamorous, slow and reaps only small profits for the small time trader. But it is responsible for many a profitable trader when compared to forex. Futures is a highly specialized skill and only the most passionate traders can make this instrument profitable.
Forex is no different. It is a highly specialized skill that will turn any serious trader into a profitable one but only if that trader has the proper guidance, psychology and discipline. I know many profitable forex traders but they are the few skillful and experienced predators who will hate me for posting this article.
Sadly, good guidance is hard to come by these days and it is difficult to know who really provides good, quality education until you have taken the course. Another way to do this is to read up on the best books and internet sites. Problem is, good books and sites are hard to come by and it is difficult to know which books and sites provide good, quality education until you have taken the trade to the market … by which time, it’s too late to regret.
Here’s a little sound advice; if it is not making money for you, move on … stay away from the crowds and don’t do what everybody else is doing. The larger the herd, the more predators there will be.
The most profitable instrument for you is the one you can trade well everyday, using the same underlying and applying a simple set of techniques that doesn’t require paralysis of analysis. It is the same ticker symbol you look at everyday and know better than your closest partner. It is the one constant in your life regardless of the market direction. It is this underlying ticker that will make you rich, whether in a short time or a longer time, depending on your leverage, gearing and discipline.
This is the secret to a trader’s success. This is what gives a good trader his/her edge. This is exactly what makes the trader become the predator.
And the predator’s fodder?
Just look over your shoulders if you are running with a herd.
Motivational & Inspirational
In response to my posting on “Perceptions and Expectations”, my friend, G.M. Teoh sent this lovely story to me …
When things in your life seem almost too much to handle, when 24 hours in a day are not enough, remember the The Mayonnaise Jar and 2 Cups of Coffee.
A professor stood before his philosophy class and had some items in front of him. When the class began, he wordlessly picked up a very large and empty mayonnaise jar and proceeded to fill it with golf balls. He then asked the students if the jar was full. They agreed that it was.
The professor then picked up a box of pebbles and poured them into the jar. He shook the jar lightly. The pebbles rolled into the open areas between the golf balls. He then asked the students again if the jar was full. They agreed that it was.
The professor next picked up a box of sand and poured it into the jar. Of course, the sand filled up everything else. He asked once more if the jar was full. The students responded with a unanimous “yes.”
The professor then produced two cups of coffee from under the table and poured the entire contents into the jar effectively filling the empty space between the sand. The students laughed.
“Now,” said the professor as the laughter subsided, “I want you to recognize that this jar represents your life. The golf balls are the important things – God, your family, your children, your health, your friends and your favorite passions – and if everything else was lost and only they remained, your life would still be full. The pebbles are the other things that matter like your job, your house and your car. The sand is everything else – the small stuff.”
“If you put the sand into the jar first,” he continued, “there is no room for the pebbles or the golf balls. The same goes for life. If you spend all your time and energy on the small stuff you will never have room for the things that are important to you.
“Pay attention to the things that are critical to your happiness. Play with your children. Take time to get medical checkups. Take your spouse out to dinner. Play another 18. There will always be time to clean the house and fix the disposal. Take care of the golf balls first – the things that really matter. Set your priorities. The rest is just sand.”
One of the students raised her hand and inquired what the coffee represented. The professor smiled. “I’m glad you asked. It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem, there’s always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend.”
And another great reflection on everything being money and money not being everything, there is this wonderful video that was posted in Facebook by one of my students from Malaysia …
And since we’re in a motivational mood before next week’s roller-coaster market gets most of us down … check out this extremely touching commercial from Pantene …
And just one more to help you realize why everyone needs a coach even when you think you don’t.
The message I take from the Pantene commercial and the clip about the coach is that when everything else becomes noisy, you only need to focus on the outcome. Even the deaf girl found her handicap “noisy” as the distractions around her proved too unmotivational. All she had to do was close her eyes and completely block out all that noise for a flawless performance … just like the kid who achieved an amazing feat only because all the “noise” was blocked out by the blindfold and the only focus he had was the voice of his coach.
I hope this was a welcome difference to the usual doom and gloom. I hope you all had a great weekend and pray you’ll have a good one ahead.
Cheers!
Why I Teach What I Teach
Today was a day of mixed feelings as I received two very different emails from two very different individuals in two extremely different situations. The first email is from Nazarudin Jusoh who is from my 5th batch in Malaysia that graduated in July 2008. This mail, needless to say, lit up my day.
Dear Conrad,
After attending your tutorial and spending hundreds of hours practicing on my Fx demo account, I have now managed to make a consistent (real money) profit of 200-250 pips a day. Usually I will make a gain of 300 pips and loss of 50 pips. My strategy is to go for a profit target (Take Profit) of 50 pips with a Stop of 50 pips also.
Although my trading strategy has deviated almost totally from what’s taught in your tutorial, I feel I would not have been able to adapt to trade profitably today were it not for attending your tutorial in July 2008. The story of your journey in life has inspired me to make a change in my life too.
You have always advocated that education is important but if I had only one choice to make between my university degree and your tutorial, I would choose your tutorial anytime. I’ve never felt like I’ve ever acquired a life skill as much as I do now. It was tough for me to attend your tutorial as I am living hundreds of miles away from KL. I also had to take leave as the weekend time here is different from that in KL. A few months ago, I drove to KL to attend a gathering but on arriving in KL on Friday (the day the gathering was to be held), I was down with dengue and was stuck in hospital for 10 days.
I found out the hard way that it was tough, to be honest, because one week after attending your tutorial, I started trading with real money (against your teachings) and lost it … only after that did I start trading on a demo account (as you had repeatedly advised) to get the experience so vital in this business. I guess most people have to learn the hard way if they are to realize the true value of your teachings.
It was only recently that I started trading with real money after months of practice. I have never in my life put in so much effort like what I have done for trading… not even for my final year university exams or most important exams in school.
But of course I don’t feel like I’ve made it … because as you said in your latest book (Secret Psychology), the moment we feel like we’ve made it … we will usually be hit hard by a new lesson in humility.
Thank You… May God bless you!
Nazarudin Jusoh
Note: Naz had included his account statement in the original mail which I am keeping confidential for his sake.
It is always nice to get such mails from students who have progressed and what’s even sweeter is the frequency of these mails today as many of the past graduates are now moving into real money trading and realizing the value of a good year of practice sessions on paper trades.
On the flip side, there are those who realize too late, the value of a good education and quality guidance.
Immediately after getting Naz’s mail, A.L. sends me a sad and all too familiar tale … a pattern that is becoming increasingly obvious as the market turns on its head yet again. Many others before A.L. had come to me on the outset of the downturn between November 2007 and February 2008. More came knocking between September and November last year and most recently, a flood of people crammed my email-box between January and March this year. Most of their letters read like A.L.’s;
Dear Conrad,
I hope this email finds you well. I was at your Wealth Academy Trader preview seminar earlier but didn’t have a chance to catch you after the seminar. I never knew your compete background story till your sharing (although I have sketchy idea from your website), and I appreciate that, for which it does give some hope for me.
As I’m writing this email, my heart is pounding away, watching the market and I do fully agree with you that there’s no such thing as full time trader – you can die of heart attack if you trade every night. I have heard of your tutorial some time back but for some reason, maybe procrastination or just not into trading then, that I held back from attending your preview.
Having been in the market for the last 3 months or so, my losses have mounted with each trade and I am stuck with counters that I am “hoping” for upward movements (or maybe it’s procrastination as you said). The situation is such that I’m playing with future money, monies that I do not have and cannot afford to lose. The stress is building up, I’m questioning my judgment and behavior; has it gone dangerously reckless and am I assuming too much risk? I’m getting tired, it’s draining too much time and energy. And to be frank, fear has set in, I really do not know what I should do next.
Thoughts of suicide and bankruptcy did occur before. But I have unfulfilled duties that tell me I can’t go yet. The only thing that is likely to happen now and the only thing I can do is to prepare myself for the brokerage firm to come for me. Bankruptcy is not an option as it would mean I cannot run any business and to lose my travel freedom. Like someone once said to me, “When it rains, it pours”.
If only I had known about your program earlier, I guess situation would be different, very much different. At least the losses would have been lesser and manageable. Perhaps life is full of “if only”. Having said all these and sharing my thoughts with you, I guess you really do have a mission to educate the public in financial knowledge and I would really love to, when the chance arise, attend your tutorial. I’m sure there’s plenty to learn and supplement what the school textbooks have taught, and of course, to hear from you your life story (especially your bankruptcy period).
Lastly, I wish you all the best for your endeavors and your mission to educate more people.
Thank you.
A.L.
That is one mail out of many others that sing the same lamentful song.
So many other gurus before me have made my job a tough one. They have literally spoilt the market and given this business a bad name. Today, in spite of all my efforts to share and be honest with people, there are still many others who doubt what I do because of the precedences that have been set before my emergence. People who don’t know what I do and don’t even take the effort to at least hear me at my previews, are judging me and categorizing me in that infamous band of Trading Workshops. You only have to read what is written in public forums and listen to what most people have to say about such workshops to know that whatever I do, the prejudiced opinion of this business will always be a drag on my efforts to provide good quality education that is not all about trading and investing. In fact, the trading and investing part of what I teach only constitutes less than 30% of my tutorial.
Only those who have been burnt will appreciate the true value of what I do. Only those who have conceded their inadequecies will treasure what I have to offer. Only those who have admitted defeat will take what I do seriously without reservation.
I will continue on my little mission. Regardless of the nay-sayers and doubters, I will continue to provide this education to those who want it. And those who want it will have to earn it. Those who acknowledge that this is a tough business and requires a lot of work and dedication will desire it. Those who know that there are no free lunches will strive to excel in it.
Dreamers need not apply. There are plenty of other courses that can help you with your dream. Mine is not one of them.
Cover Story – Invest May 2009
Guess who made the cover story for this month’s issue?
My 2008 In Review
Up till this year, 1992 had been the best year of my life – I bought my first car, won Group 2 of Toto, got my first HDB flat in Pasir Ris via ballot, won three of the biggest pitches in the advertising industry that year including the Army TV Commercial and I got married.
The years that followed were serious struggles;
- 1995 – Got screwed by my ex-boss and was left stranded in Sydney with company debts up to wazoo with the Mrs pregnant with my first.
- 1996 – Ken Air went down along with my media division.
- 1997 – Unemployed (Asian Financial Crisis) – wife carrying my second child.
- 1999 – My media business went kaput towards the end of the century.
- 2000 – Bust and unemployed (again) and hunted by creditors – downgraded from my 5 room in Pasir Ris to a 3 room in Bedok. Sold the car and everything that was worth anything.
- 2001 – Bankrupt. Wife went out to find work to support the family.
- 2004 – Lost my best friend and constant companion, Toto, my pet Maltese.
- 2005 – Lost my Dad 3 days before Chinese New Year. Lost about US$20,000 (wife’s money)(not including course fees) in on-line (get-rich-quick) trading ventures.
Somewhere in those years, I also lost my Grandma, lost my mind and nearly took my life.
Sounds like stuff that will make a great book, doesn’t it? And that is exactly what is coming out by mid 2009 (no, no, … it won’t be delayed like my other books, I promise) It will be about how one can take a dire situation and turn it around for the better, how one can take positives from negatives and find advantage in adversity. It will also be about bankruptcy and everything you need to know to stave it off, survive it and/or get out of it. Most importantly, it will be about how anyone can make the most of themselves given the right mindset and skillset. This book has been one of the things that have kept my 2008 a really busy and enterprising year.
Amongst other things, 2008 saw the Pattern Trader Tutorial almost double its batches from 2007. The number of students per batch also increased with 4 out of 12 local batches max’d out at 30, compared to the average class size of 18 in 2007. My trades also improved markedly even as the market went through its most volatile year ever. Even more satisfying were the performances of my students, many of whom made 2008 a very profitable year. The success of the Pattern Trader found its way North and completed 5 batches in K.L. and South to graduate 3 batches in Jakarta. Two years after its inception at AKLTG, the Pattern Trader Tutorial remains the best value-for-money starter program for anyone interested in the business of on-line trading and financial understanding. (Pity the Dreamers will never get it.) I am very proud of what this tutorial has become.
With that success came my first interview in a financial magazine, “Invest” in June/July, speaking engagements at NTU Alumni Club, Options Trader’s Club, Investor Exchange, Investfairs in Singapore and K.L. and to top it all off, a feature in ChannelNews Asia’s “Cents & Sensibilities”.
2008 also saw the completion of two more books; “Profit From The Panic” and the long awaited “Secret Psychology of Millionaire Traders“. Both books are due out on the shelves in January 2009. The follow-up to the highly successful Candlestick Reference Cards was also completed – The “Pattern Trader’s Break-Out Patterns Quick Reference Cards” will be released before the end of January 2009. Anticipating more products and services to come, The Pattern Trader Tools was born to support students from beyond our shores.
And I bought myself a new car!
As financially successful as 2008 was, it didn’t come without frustration and heartache. The Candlestick Cards were twice pirated, I was hospitalized for some heart “flutter” as a result of 6 months of excessive coughing, I lost a student to heart failure, my good friend Jack lost his Grandma, a lot of people I know lost their jobs while more lost a lot of money and I got lost in my success.
After being down for so long, I allowed success get to my head early in the year. I allowed myself to over-indulge and almost lost what I had worked so hard to gain. Once again, the strength and will of my determined wife put me back on track and kept my head straight. Thank God for her.
As the year wore on, recession became apparent and as predicted, the global financial rot set in. It has been a rotten year for most in the markets and the bad news is that it will get worse before it gets better.
But in spite of the doom and gloom of 2008, it now supercedes 1992 as my most financially fulfilling year and the year I achieve most, if not all the objectives I set out to do three years earlier. If there was one other item on the list I wished could have been better, it would be my health. I intend to improve that front in 2009.
So with 2008 behind me now, I am looking forward to the challenges of 2009 and beyond from a world aching from financial pain. Having survived 1987, 1997 and 2000, I am taking nothing for granted and will be on my toes as long as this economy remains shithoused. Along the way, I will continue to keep reaching out to help those who ask for help. My family will remain my top priority and my children will always come first.
So bring it on, 2009! I am ready and waiting and I am going to make the best of it!
Cheers to all my readers and a very Happy New Year to all … may it be as prosperous for all of us as 2008 has been for me.
Farewell 2008 … thanks for the memories.
2009 Christmas Gathering
A big and hearty “Thanks!” to the 100+ people who showed up for last night’s gathering. For those who missed it, here are the updates so that you don’t get left behind …
For starters, Secret Psychology of Millionaire Traders is now printing! The book will be out by New Year with an official Launch slated for mid January. The other book, Profit from the Panic will be launched on 6 January and the Breakout Pattern Cards by February. It has been heck of a year-end for me as I raced to get these over-due projects out. I’m glad the the books are done.
Following up on my Letter To Santa, as we leave 2008 behind, the market going forward is looking scary and daunting. Using rotation models and economic indicators and historical patterns, the following is how I will be approaching the next few years to come. It’s a conservative outlook which, of course, could change depending on the global economic climate and how governments react to each and every gyration that this recession is about to throw at them.
The next couple of weeks will be crucial as the markets await the long missed Santa Claus Rally, last seen in 2005. Should the rally not happen …
First criteria to become less Bearish:
1. Uncle Ben to stop bailing & stimulating
2. A Beautiful Curve that’s not too steep on the T-Bond Yields
3. Manufacturing & Production to stop falling
4. Consumer Expectation to start recovering
Target: 2nd Quarter 2009
Reaction: Market Bottom
Time: 3 to 6 months later
Next criteria to consider being Bullish:
1. A drop or stall in Job Cuts and Foreclosures
2. Consecutive increases in Non-Farm Payrolls into Positives
3. Technology Companies to start producing
4. Financials & HMOs to start stabalizing
Target: End of 4th Quarter 2009
Reaction:
Tech Market Leadership
Financials Recovering
Strength In Housing/Construction
Time: 4 to 5 months later
Final criteria for Bullish conversion:
1. Consistently Increasing Volumes on Bullish Days
2. The 200DSMA to fall below all Benchmarks Indices
3. A 15 to 20 Point VIX
4. Slow ‘n’ Steady GDP Growth
5. A Steady-to-Normal T-Bond Yield Curve
6. The Start of Interest Rate Hikes
7. Steady Growth in Manufacturing & Production
8. Rising Consumer Expectations
Target: End of 4th Quarter 2010
Reaction:
Strength In Industrials
Financials/HMOs Growing
Strength In Agriculture/Construction
Time: 6 months later
Confirmation of Bullish conversion:
1. Rising Oil Prices
2. Rising Consumer Spending
3. Increasing Non-Farm Payrolls
4. Consecutive Quarters of GDP Growth
5. Lower Initial Claims
6. More Interest Rate Hikes
7. More Growth in Manufacturing & Production
8. Positive Earnings and Guidance
Target: 4th Quarter 2011
Reaction: 4 Year Market Rally Begins
Time: Mid 2012 (Obama’s 3rd Year)
What happens after 2011/2012 should be a 4 year rally that should see a top by 2015/2016. But that another story for another time!
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THE COMPLETE PRACTITIONER’S APPROACH TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Getting started and everything you need to know about;
Support/Resistance
Channels/Trends
Retracements
Dips/Rallies
Waves
Pivots
Fibonacci
PHI-Bonacci Expansion
Divergence/Failures
Candlestick Analysis
Breakout Patterns
Indicators & Oscillators
2 Day Workshop
Sat 14 Feb 9am to 6pm
Sun 15 Feb 9am to 6pm
Public Attendees: $299
Pattern Trader (WAT) Grads: Please check with Wandy.
Wealth Academy (WA) Grads: Please check with Wandy.
How is this workshop beneficial to Wealth grads? There’s a heck of a lot more that I will cover that I don’t usually talk about in WA or WAT because of the time constraints. Some of the techniques I will be sharing are more advanced that the basic tutorial. Just when you thought you knew something about Technical Analysis, good ol’ Conman drags more tricks out of his magic bag!
Interested graduates can make an advanced reservation at this link:
www.wealthacademytrader.com/advance
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TUTORIAL NOTES 2009 EDITION & REFRESHER WORKSHOP
The manual notes have been updated and upgraded. The tutorial is also upgraded and is now a 7 day tutorial. Together with the 350 page manual, past graduates may choose to attend either a one day refresher gathering/workshop on 7 Feb 09 or re-sit the revised 7 day tutorial or both. For details on the new tutorial and the updated manual, go to conradalvinlim.com. Interested parties can make their workshop queries with Wandy.
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And here are some of the pics from yesterday’s gathering …
<– Alvin Lim and Alvin Lim!Lucy & I would like to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy & Profitable New Year! There’s always something to be happy for even in a recession … for one, be happy for every breath you take.
Cheers & Happy Hunting Always!
