2009 Christmas Gathering
A big and hearty “Thanks!” to the 100+ people who showed up for last night’s gathering. For those who missed it, here are the updates so that you don’t get left behind …
For starters, Secret Psychology of Millionaire Traders is now printing! The book will be out by New Year with an official Launch slated for mid January. The other book, Profit from the Panic will be launched on 6 January and the Breakout Pattern Cards by February. It has been heck of a year-end for me as I raced to get these over-due projects out. I’m glad the the books are done.
Following up on my Letter To Santa, as we leave 2008 behind, the market going forward is looking scary and daunting. Using rotation models and economic indicators and historical patterns, the following is how I will be approaching the next few years to come. It’s a conservative outlook which, of course, could change depending on the global economic climate and how governments react to each and every gyration that this recession is about to throw at them.
The next couple of weeks will be crucial as the markets await the long missed Santa Claus Rally, last seen in 2005. Should the rally not happen …
First criteria to become less Bearish:
1. Uncle Ben to stop bailing & stimulating
2. A Beautiful Curve that’s not too steep on the T-Bond Yields
3. Manufacturing & Production to stop falling
4. Consumer Expectation to start recovering
Target: 2nd Quarter 2009
Reaction: Market Bottom
Time: 3 to 6 months later
Next criteria to consider being Bullish:
1. A drop or stall in Job Cuts and Foreclosures
2. Consecutive increases in Non-Farm Payrolls into Positives
3. Technology Companies to start producing
4. Financials & HMOs to start stabalizing
Target: End of 4th Quarter 2009
Reaction:
Tech Market Leadership
Financials Recovering
Strength In Housing/Construction
Time: 4 to 5 months later
Final criteria for Bullish conversion:
1. Consistently Increasing Volumes on Bullish Days
2. The 200DSMA to fall below all Benchmarks Indices
3. A 15 to 20 Point VIX
4. Slow ‘n’ Steady GDP Growth
5. A Steady-to-Normal T-Bond Yield Curve
6. The Start of Interest Rate Hikes
7. Steady Growth in Manufacturing & Production
8. Rising Consumer Expectations
Target: End of 4th Quarter 2010
Reaction:
Strength In Industrials
Financials/HMOs Growing
Strength In Agriculture/Construction
Time: 6 months later
Confirmation of Bullish conversion:
1. Rising Oil Prices
2. Rising Consumer Spending
3. Increasing Non-Farm Payrolls
4. Consecutive Quarters of GDP Growth
5. Lower Initial Claims
6. More Interest Rate Hikes
7. More Growth in Manufacturing & Production
8. Positive Earnings and Guidance
Target: 4th Quarter 2011
Reaction: 4 Year Market Rally Begins
Time: Mid 2012 (Obama’s 3rd Year)
What happens after 2011/2012 should be a 4 year rally that should see a top by 2015/2016. But that another story for another time!
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THE COMPLETE PRACTITIONER’S APPROACH TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Getting started and everything you need to know about;
Support/Resistance
Channels/Trends
Retracements
Dips/Rallies
Waves
Pivots
Fibonacci
PHI-Bonacci Expansion
Divergence/Failures
Candlestick Analysis
Breakout Patterns
Indicators & Oscillators
2 Day Workshop
Sat 14 Feb 9am to 6pm
Sun 15 Feb 9am to 6pm
Public Attendees: $299
Pattern Trader (WAT) Grads: Please check with Wandy.
Wealth Academy (WA) Grads: Please check with Wandy.
How is this workshop beneficial to Wealth grads? There’s a heck of a lot more that I will cover that I don’t usually talk about in WA or WAT because of the time constraints. Some of the techniques I will be sharing are more advanced that the basic tutorial. Just when you thought you knew something about Technical Analysis, good ol’ Conman drags more tricks out of his magic bag!
Interested graduates can make an advanced reservation at this link:
www.wealthacademytrader.com/advance
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TUTORIAL NOTES 2009 EDITION & REFRESHER WORKSHOP
The manual notes have been updated and upgraded. The tutorial is also upgraded and is now a 7 day tutorial. Together with the 350 page manual, past graduates may choose to attend either a one day refresher gathering/workshop on 7 Feb 09 or re-sit the revised 7 day tutorial or both. For details on the new tutorial and the updated manual, go to conradalvinlim.com. Interested parties can make their workshop queries with Wandy.
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And here are some of the pics from yesterday’s gathering …
<– Alvin Lim and Alvin Lim!Lucy & I would like to wish everyone a Very Merry Christmas and a Happy & Profitable New Year! There’s always something to be happy for even in a recession … for one, be happy for every breath you take.
Cheers & Happy Hunting Always!
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