Comments Off on October 2015 In Review, November Preview

October 2015 In Review, November Preview

October 2015 was a let down as far as the market went but my life was super-active with events.

The month saw two Candlestick and Breakout Patterns workshop – in Malaysia dan Singapore – and these were really great sessions that I thoroughly enjoyed. The Malaysians really got a treat especially with a crowd of almost a hundred. That really made my month.


On 27 October 2015, PTT80 finished their eight week tutorial. This batch had a slow start but boy did they get enthusiastic as the tutorial wore on. Keep the energy up, people! There more work coming at you in the weeks and months ahead! This is not the end … its actually the beginning!


We held our breath and the market didn’t collapse in October. On the last week of October, some of the major indices broke above their critical levels with the S&P and DOW breaking above their 200 DSMAs. The S&P is positive for the year but the DOW and NASDAQ remain in the red. Leadership amongst the market sectors have not been encouraging with Energy, Utilities, Telecom and Materials leading the gainers for most of the month.


The Fed meeting again showed its indecisiveness by keeping rates unchanged. The committee said in determining whether it will raise rates at its “next meeting,” it will assess the progress toward “its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.” A changed in language was the only give away as the Fed made its stance to do something about rates sound more serious. It specifically mentioned December, a practice that was out of the ordinary. Let’s not forget that negative interest rates are not out of the question.

For the month, DOW gained 8.47% while the S&P added 8.73% and the NASDAQ 9.38%.

Given that Yellen is not going to do anything between now and December, we could well see new highs forming in November up till Black Friday or the start of Christmas sales.

I truly don’t know what this market has to be bullish about when one glaring statistic in another time would be putting this market into a most severe downturn – record low earnings and revenues.

US Real Estate Ownership

Earnings started getting poorer as early as 2012 and has since deteriorated so much that companies have had to buy back shares to prop up their EPS and bring PEs down. The S&P companies spent more than 2 trillion dollars in 2014 and 2015 in order to improve their fundamentals.

In spite of all that, revenues got increasingly woeful. The end of the cheap money has truly exposed these companies for what they are really worth.

America continues to fight a battle with Deflation as its inflation rate once again fell to 0%. Yellen mentioned that inflation should be at 2% and its policies are driven to achieve that. Somehow, it isn’t working.


This isn’t surprising because history is repeating itself as it did with Japan 24 years ago. Zero interest rates has proven to be a sure bet to get deflated.

America took seven years to get it because it was living on cheap money all that time. Now that cheap money has ended, it has given birth to another abomination.

Singapore is not any better. In fact, it’s worse. The Little Red Dot has been in Deflation for eleven months now. That equals the previous longest time of deflation during 1998 to 1999.


You’d have to go back to 1986/1987 for a longer period of deflation that lasted fourteen months.

Our government has yet to mention anything official about this and why it is happening. But it has mentioned that the inflation rate (or lack of it) was one of the reasons why they were easing back on the Singapore Dollar.

It also lowered the value of the dollar (after blowing $34B to prop it up) because growth had slowed and put the island state into a technical recession.


The main reason growth slowed was because its exports had fallen from an all time high of S$45,075.52 million in October 2013 to S$38,448.68 million in September 2015, making it the lowest level in six years going back to the recovery of the sub-prime debacle.

SG Exports

Growth is still woeful QonQ. It’s even worse YonY. Since 2011, Singapore’s average growth has been lower than any non-recessionary period going back to the 70s. Singapore Annual Growth Rate averaged 6.5 percent from 1976 until the start of 2014. The average for the last four quarters has been 2.02%.


In my opinion, Singapore’s economic slowdown is not going to end anytime soon if the government does not acknowledge the problem and come up with a sound policy to encourage real growth.

Low borrowing rates against high consumer prices are killing our growth and incomes. In fact, it is those very factors that have raised Singapore amongst the highest household debts in Asia.

Amongst the things that the nation should fear is a sudden drop in consumer spending and a rise in credit defaults. The signs are already here with the banking sector experiencing a slow but steady increase in defaults while more individuals start lagging on their payments. All it will take is an increase in unemployment as companies cut back on expenses. It won’t come as a surprise because deflation makes it difficult to be profitable especially when consumers have been pulling back on their discretionary spending.


Residential property prices have fallen to 2010 levels according to the URA’s Housing Index. The index came off a historical high of 154.60 index points in Q3 2013 and has been steadily declining for eight quarters to its current 142.30 index points. Needless to say, housing prices have always been an accurate forward indicator for things to come in any economy.


November begins well, flattens in the middle of the month and goes on to finish very well. November is the first of the historically best three consecutive months of the trading calendar between November and January. It is also the start of the “best six months” on the DOW and the S&P and the start of the “best eight months” on NASDAQ.

This year, November has 19 full trading sessions and one half-day session on 27 November and one trading holiday on 26 November in observance of Thanksgiving.

November Trivia

Key Economic Dates

Sat 31 Oct

Sun 01 Nov

Mon 02 Nov

Wed 04 Nov

Thu 05 Nov

Fri 06 Nov

Mon 09 Nov

Tue 10 Nov

Wed 11 Nov

Fri 13 Nov

Sun 15 Nov

Mon 16 Nov

Tue 17 Nov

Wed 18 Nov

Thu 19 Nov

Fri 20 Nov

Mon 23 Nov

Tue 24 Nov

Wed 25 Nov

Thu 26 Nov

Fri 27 Nov

Mon 30 Nov



It would seem that October 2015 was merciful to the market and turned into a Bear Killer instead. But it doesn’t mean that economies are not in some real pain.

There was a time not so long ago that the economy shadowed the market by lagging six months behind. It’s not so today. With governments intervening and central banks pumping in more paper, the market has become a Frankenstein monster with a life of its own while the economy trudges into a different direction in a lifeless manner.

But like all things capitalistic, the market will, sooner or later, find its way down to its real level where values are more rational and fair. All the artificial propping and creative accounting cannot prevent the inevitable forever.

Whatever the market does is whatever it will do. I will be watching the economy closely because that is where real lives matter. And it looks like it is going to get really painful in the months ahead. Just be careful because if and when the economy capitulates, the market might just follow.

I reckon the days of the economy lagging the market are over … at least until central banks and governments come to their senses, stop interfering and let the markets do what they’re meant to do. And that is to give the economy a value. A real value.

Comments Off on September 2015 In Review, October Preview

September 2015 In Review, October Preview

Wow! That was a short month … and yes, the pun was intended. LOL!

In September, PTT graduated two amazingly high energy batches …


PTT79 (above) completed its 8-week Tutorial In Singapore on 1 September and wanted more! So they got it. These days, they are chalking up hours of homework assignments and loving every bit of torture I feed them. These guys are nuts!


On the weekends of September 11 – 14 and 19 – 20, PTTMY30 (above) got its Tutorial. What an amazingly enthusiastic batch this was. I was knackered after every session … and that’s quite rare. Or maybe I am getting old. Hmmm …


Amongst those who came back to re-sit the whole Tutorial in K.L. were past graduates from before 2010 including (from left) Yap Meng Guan (KL)Annasthasia Marchella (Jakarta)Indaraaj Singh (KL)Low Kok Meng (Penang, grad from 2007 KL Batch 01)Tee Seng Chew (KL) and L.K. Choong (Penang).

It was a blast to hang with you lot again. Looking forward to more years of great friendship!

Then to top the month off, I did a public spot for Smart Investment & International Property Expo 2015 as a keynote speaker.


It was fun. Just wish I had more stage time because the crowd obviously appreciated it.

I will remember September 2015 for one significant event that really took away my rest time – ThinkOrSwim’s massive update to the trading platform. And it had to happen just as I finished the final edit on the Tutorial’s Eighth Edition Textbook!! Wah Lau!! This became a frantic fight against time on the last weekend as Brian Ha and myself put in OT to complete the revisions.

That was truly painful. But at least its done … finally. Now we can go to print.


September lived up to its reputation for being the most bearish month of the year. Singapore joined China as the first two economies to fall into Bear Market territory. As of the close of 30 September, the STI was -21.13% below its April high while China closed -40.69% down from its June high.


Now that the year’s two most bearish months are behind us, what will October hold?

The DOW has fought hard to stay above its psychological 16,000 and remains entrenched below its 200DSMA. In fact, all the major indices (DJI, SPX, COMP, RUT, RUI and TRAN/DJT) are below their Death Crosses as of the close of the month.


Historically, this has led to further downside on the benchmarks.

Given that Fed Chair, Janet Yellen has one more window to raise the Fed Fund Rate in October (28 October) and that October starts Q3’s Earnings Season where companies this year are expected to be hawkish going forward, there is a strong possibility that the Grand Slam of Death Crosses may fulfill its destiny of further downside.

Let’s not discount the fact that many companies, especially amongst the S&P500 companies (more than 66%) are still over valued.

America’s GDP report was also a mirage of the real deal because if you averaged its GDI (Gross Domestic Income was a mere 0.7%) with its GDP, growth was no more than 2.3% instead of the GDP number of 3.9% that was reported.

Deflation is another concern as Yellen pressed on the importance of getting the Inflation Rate up to 2% from its current 0.2%.

On the local front, Singapore’s Deflationary woes are more serious as the Little Red Dot registered its 10th consecutive month of deflation at -0.8%.

During the Sub-Prime recovery in Q3 and A4 of 2009, the lowest level was -0.9% when the island state only recorded six months of negative inflation.

This has been the longest period of Deflation for Singapore since 2001-2002 (12 months) and 1998-1999 (11 months).

On the currency front, The SGD has been in a purple patch against its neighboring Ringgit, closing out the month at 3.08, the highest it has ever been in history.

Screen Shot 2015-10-01 at 1.12.05 am

However, that illusion of strength is shadowed by the SGD (above) falling against the Dollar to 1.43, the lowest since August 2009. The Ringgit fared much worse falling record lows against the Dollar at the quickest rate amongst all currencies to 4.41.

All this does not paint a rosy outlook for Singapore especially when we haven’t considered our contracting Services and Manufacturing PMIs, high costs (CPI is at 99.41, just off its all time high of 100.25 in March of 2014) and increased borrowings that have put Singapore amongst the highest household debts in Asia.

For those looking for technical reasons to be bearish, you have to check out this one; Put up your MACD (12, 26, 9) in monthly configurations on any index and just look at every time the histograms fell into bearish territory.

This one is the S&P500. The picture paints a portrait of pain to come.


On the whole, the global economic outlook now is bleak. Countries are desperately propping up their markets, currencies and growth by throwing more money at the problem but failing to realize the short-term futility of such vain efforts. The nature of capitalistic markets will ensure that despite the best measures to curb corrections, prices will somehow find their way down to their realistic values. Capital outflows, demand destruction and flights to safety will surely neutralize any effort to artificially keep prices up.

History has proven it time and time again. And this October might prove it again.


October 2014 has 22 trading sessions and one Bond Market trading holiday, Columbus Day on Monday, 12 October (Bond markets will be closed). October is the end of the “Worst Six Months” and begins the “Best Six Months” on the DOW and S&P500.

October is infamous for some of the most notorious stock market crashes in history;

October of 2008 famously ended the reign of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.

In spite of all its bearish infamy, October has actually ended more bear markets than started it in history. Massive drops in 1987, 1990, 2001 and 2002 promptly and sharply reversed in October to start long-term rallies. If you had been a buyer during Black Monday of 1987 you would have been massively wealthy by the time the Asian Financial Crisis hit in 1997.

October Trivia

Key Economic Dates

– US ISM Manufacturing PMI

– US Non-Farm Payrolls

– Spain, Italy, France German, UK, US Services PMI

– US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

– Australia RBA Rate Statement

– Japan BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference

– UK Monetary Policy Summary and Official Bank Rate

– US FOMC Meeting Minutes

– Japan BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes



– China GDP q/y

– China Industrial Production


– US Consumer Sentiment

– Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

– China Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI

– EU, German, French Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI

– US Building Permits

– EU ECB Press Conference

– US Flash Services PMI, Existing Home Sales

– UK Prelim GDP q/q

– Consumer Confidence

– US FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate

– US Advance GDP q/q

– Japan BOJ Press Conference and Outlook Report

– Chicago PMI

– China Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI



2015 has given investors a lot to worry about for this October especially after two months of volatility in August and September. With many economies contracting and currencies falling, this October is going to be a very nervous one for many.

So will October be a Bear Killer Month or another famous crash waiting to happen? I won’t be holding my breath for either. I’ll be paying it safe by being heavily hedged and ready to make trade adjustments when it calls for it.

If you don’t know how to do that, then play it safe and stay sidelined till things get clearer. Always best to err of the side of caution than be reckless without a cause.

Here’s a parting shot that will get you thinking. Happy Hunting!!


Comments Off on August 2015 In Review, September Preview

August 2015 In Review, September Preview

I don’t remember much about August 2015 because it went by so quickly. The only five things I recall clearly are BBQ night on the 8th with my extended family and friends …


… our 50th National Day, …


… movie night on August 16 to watch Tom Cruise do insane things …


… Black Monday (August 24) …


… and my appearance at FX World Seminar.


Other than that, its all a blur really … except for market matters. I guess everything else is a blur because my focus, especially in the last two weeks have been on the markets and it has been an amazing and historical time in the bourses.

What a month … Fireworks, death defying action, rollercoasters, getting barbecued …. and that’s only what happened in the markets! Hahahaha!


August 2015 was a wild month like I expected it to be. Huge swings in the market in week three set all kinds of records and put the DOW deep into negative for the year and well below its 200 DSMA.


However, in the perspective of historical records, August 2015 pales in comparison to the many other records. While many thought Monday August 24 was a record setting session, it doesn’t rank as high as 1987 and 2008 in terms of percentage losses.

Daily point loss

In terms of percentage-loss, it doesn’t even rank amongst the top ten worst.

Daily Percentage loss

In terms of point-loss, 2008 dominates most of the records bearing in mind that the DOW was below 11,000 at that time.

Daily point gain

It registered the third largest points gained in a single session on the 26th when the market bounced. However, there is evidence to suggest that it was nothing more than a short squeeze. The percentage gained on that day was nothing (+3.95) compared to some of the greatest gains made in a day – the top 20 are all well above +7%.


It did top the records in terms of the largest point swing in history, 71 points more than 10th October 2008. But having said that, the DOW back in October 2008 was half of what it was on August 2015.

While all eyes were on Wall Street’s record-breaking week, Asian markets took a right beating. China was put into bear market territory with its benchmark Shanghai composite falling into negative for the year and falling below its 200DSMA. This was in spite of the PBOC throwing more Yuan at the market and banning short-selling across the board on top of the selling ban imposed a month earlier.

But China isn’t the only economy guilty of propping up its economy.

It would seem that Singapore has also been propping up its currency allegedly with S$34B from its reserves, a claim (allegedly from DBS Bank) that has not been rejected by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and/or the Government of Singapore.

Singapore and Malaysia continued to be in the red for the year and below their respective 200DSMAs for three months now.

Both currencies continue to weaken and GDPs look set to remain in contraction. As of Monday 31 August, the USD/SGD closed at 1.4125 up from 1.3745 a month earlier. The Dollar also climbed against the Ringgit to a historical high of 4.2210 on 25 August.

The Singapore Dollar also hit a record high against the Ringgit on 26 August at 3.0036. It closed out the month at 2.9663.


Singapore remains mired in deflation as property prices continue to fall to four-year lows and import/export traffic continued it’s slowing.

I have never been profitable in September until last year. It has been my jinx month till I broke that streak in 2014. I intend to keep it that way this year. So I am going to be cautiously pessimistic and will run for cover the moment I smell a reversal. But me being me, I’ll probably listen to my gut more than my head and keep my shorts running albeit with a trail in place.


September is the last and worst month of quarter three which is traditionally the worst quarter of the year. September 2015 has twenty-one trading days and one public holiday.

In the last 64 years since 1950, September has been the most bearish month of the trading year for the DOW and S&P. It is also the worst month of the worst four months (July to October) on NASDAQ.

September Trivia

Economic Data

This is going to be another busy month for Central Banks all over the world. Economies have been struggling with falling markets and contracting economic numbers.

All eyes will be on the US Fed and Janet Yellen. Many economists are of the opinion that she missed the window to raise rates and any action now may be counter-productive and even detrimental to the US economy.

Key Economic Dates For September 2015

Tuesday 1

Wednesday 2

Thursday 3

Friday 4

Saturday 5

Friday 11

Monday 14

Tuesday 15

Wednesday 16

Thursday 17

Sunday 20

Monday 21

Tuesday 22

Friday 25

Tuesday 29

Wednesday 30



According to Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ and author of “Sector Investing”, there have been 11 instances since 1945 when the S&P 500 fell more than 5% in August that were followed by negative September returns 80% of the time, averaging a decline of 4%.

With statistics like that, you have to be a brave person to bet against it.


If the Transports have anything to say about where this market is going, it sure isn’t saying anything dovish.

It has been rejected by its 200DSMA four times and promptly collapsed after its attempt. The bounce that we saw on the DOW and S&P were not reciprocated on the TRANS.

This seems to be hinting that the worst is yet to come and we had better not start counting our chickens yet.

For now, 16,500 is the current threshold. Resistance will be tough at 16,800 and 17,000. A break below 16,300 could well see the DOW capitulate easily down to 15,700 and 15,400 again over the next few weeks. Any further downside should be limited to 14,800.

Someone asked me about the possibility of a repeat of 2008 and I replied quite seriously that the conditions are there for such a repeat. If it should happen, it would not surprise me one bit to see the DOW fall to 12,500 with ease.

Of course he thought I was joking.

I wasn’t joking in April of 2008 when I called 9,500 from 13,000 and 6,000 from 9,500 five months later.

Comments Off on July/August Monthly Sector Report – Big Tech

July/August Monthly Sector Report – Big Tech


This month, we’re going to look at the giants of the Technology sector. This report features the biggest companies from all the diversified industries of this sector including telcos, semiconductors, box makers, retail and on-line services.There has been a lot of talk that Big Tech companies in America are overbought and overvalued. The speculation is that they will be the ones that fall the hardest if and when this “bubble” bursts. Thus, there are lots of reasons to visit this huge sector to see what opportunities await.

Plus! Don’t miss out our extended market report with updates on the U.S. and regional markets.

Get yours now!

Comments Off on July 2015 In Review, August Preview

July 2015 In Review, August Preview

July started with a quick vacation-cum-business trip-cum-catch up with friends in Perth, Australia. Many thanks to Rom and Raph for entertaining us and having us over to their homes for dinner with their families. How time has flown. We were once our kids’ ages and messing up our lives. Now look at us – parents, guiding our kids to not do the shit we did. I have to say that we haven’t done that badly considering what rascals we were. Thanks for having Lucy and me over, bros.

Not much else happened in July 2015 worth noting. Most of my time was spent watching a most interesting global development that skewed the markets to and fro. So let’s get to the action.


2015 has seen the most fickle U.S. market in history having swung the DOW between gains and losses 21 times in seven months. This surpasses the record of 20 swings in 1934 and 1994. It comes as no surprise because I wrote about it at the end of January this year;

“Let’s recap some of those foreboding prophecies we mentioned last month … no sell-off in May 2014, terrible Black Friday numbers, no Santa Claus Rally … the updates from January are that the first day was down, the second day was also down (which is extremely rare), the first five days didn’t give us a gain and the January Barometer is bearish – all signs that 2015 is likely to be more bearish than bullish.”

At the end of March, the December Low indicator was divergent from the January Barometer, warning us that the rest of 2015 would either be extremely volatile or very flat. Seems we got the latter.

As of the close of Friday 31 July 2015, the DOW is negative for the year and below its 200DSMA. Earnings have been a mixed bag of results with hits and misses evenly across the broader market. Revenues, however, have faltered further. Guidance is almost non-existent as most companies kept their outlooks close to their chest.

The market’s reaction to earnings has broadly been dovish because of “better than expected” numbers. However, those number have mostly been downward revisions when compared YonY and QonQ. The reality is that the market is not doing as well as the benchmark indices are suggesting.

Screen Shot 2015-08-01 at 7.41.51 am

A quick look at the Transportation index (above, bottom) will give you an idea of what the Dow (above, top), NASDAQ and S&P should actually look like if all things were equal and not manipulated.

The $TRAN has spent all but five sessions in the red for the year and has been well under its 200DSMA since 18 May. Such price divergences between the benchmarks and the $TRAN has more often than not, swung in favor of the $TRAN in the longer term as was the case at the top of the sub-prime bubble.


Yields have fallen across the board in July. Spreads between the 5/10 and 10/30 have tightened to 66bps and 72bps.

With only a couple of weeks left for earnings season, I doubt very much that the remaining big names can make a difference for the coming months of August and September.

And they are going to be very rough months.

Asian Markets


Singapore’s economy fell into a technical recession when growth fell to -4.6% in Q2 on the back of weak manufacturing. Earnings amongst the big three banks have been underwhelming with UOB announcing a 5.7% YonY drop in profits.

The STI (3,202.50) closed out the month with its two worst consecutive sessions since 2011.

The KLCI (1,723.14) fared no better under the weight of the 1MDB scandal and a weak Ringgit. Both KLCI and STI are in the red for the year since the end of May and under their respective 200DSMAs.

Amongst regional currencies, for the first time since 2008, the AUD fell below the SGD in July 2015. It closed out the month at 1.0025. The SGD saw some weakness against the Ringgit in July. It started the month well hitting a high of 2.8296 on 7 July only to close the month out at 2.7861.

Elsewhere, The Chinese market saw its worst drop since 2007 on Monday 27 July 2015, losing 8.4% in a single session. From our last report when the Shanghai Composite close out June at 4277.22, the Chinese benchmark fell a further 613 points or -16.73% to close July at 3664.01. This is in spite of the PBOC throwing trillions of Yuan at the market and placing a selling ban across all the major shareholders.

As long as the language in any market is not bearish amongst the big players, this is reason to be extremely cautious. It won’t be until these players are speaking about doom and gloom that I will consider being bullish on risk again.

Till then, I will be watching the yield curve closely and monitoring the economic health of the U.S., China, Australia, Malaysia and Singapore with great interest. Given that we’re going into the two most bearish months of the year, the strength of the Asian economies are going to be severely tested.

One equation I didn’t bother to consider is the Greek issue because I strongly believe that it will continue to be a non-event regardless of what happens to that debt-ridden country.

August 2015 Preview

August has been the most bearish in the last 28 years with no reliable patterns. It is the first of two consecutive months of bearishness going into September, the most bearish month of the year over the last 80-plus years. Since 1987, August has been the worst month on the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ.

August 2015 has 21 full trading sessions and no public holiday.

August Trivia

Key Economic Dates For August 2015

This is going to be a busy month for Central Banks all over the world. With economies contracting and making hawkish forecasts, expect more volatility in the markets and more job lay offs as companies tighten their belts.

Monday 3

Tuesday 4

Wednesday 5

Thursday 6

Friday 7

Tuesday 11

Wednesday 12

Friday 14

Monday 17

Tuesday 18

Wednesday 19

Thursday 20

Friday 21

Saturday 22

Monday 24

Thursday 27

Monday 31


Oil fell from 60.00p/b to 46.00, Gold dropped from 1,180.00 to 1,095.00, Corn collapsed from 450.00 to 380.00 … commodities across the board took a beating in July with sugar, gold and copper making new multi-year lows.


With Fed Chair Janet Yellen holding rates unchanged at the end of July, this sets up a strong possibility of higher rates by September.

Whatever happens between now and then, I will have my money in commodities as everything else has gotten really troublesome to trade. Its not that commodities is easy but its the least troublesome with very little headlines to create the kind of wildness that the currency and equity markets are seeing now. Plus, they are at their cheapest levels in a long time.

Happy Hunting!

Comments Off on June/July 2015 Monthly Sector Report – Food Products

June/July 2015 Monthly Sector Report – Food Products


Holiday-Spread-Evan-Sung small

The markets seem to have topped out in most economies and looks likely to continue its volatile consolidation. This month’s report revisits “safe” trades in the form of the Food Products industry. The last time we featured this sector in 2010 produced quite a few winners.

We also have an extended market report this month.

Get your report now:

Comments Off on June 2015 Review, July Preview

June 2015 Review, July Preview

Just like that, half the year is gone. June was a very short month for me in spite of not doing any classes except for a gathering and a pair of very memorable Candlestick/Breakout Patterns Workshops in Singapore and K.L.

Other than that, it was a month of getting back to fitness and resuming my expansion plans for next year. So without much to talk about or show, let’s get straight to the crux of the current issues regarding the markets.


Things around the world have not been great, to say the least. Greek banks have shut down to prevent a run on the banks, China is looking like capitulating after a magnificent parabolic run on easy money, Singapore has fallen into negative for the year, the Ringgit hit 2.80 against the SGD, commodities continue to find new lows and the American market is still flat for the year after six months of trading.

As of the close of Monday 29 June 2015, the Dow Jones Industrial average closed in negative territory for the year, again. This was its 13th failed attempt at breaking and staying above 18,000, a level that has now become a bogey resistance for the big-cap index.

dow snp

Now the DOW is effectively below its 200DSMA with the S&P only 4 points away from joining the DOW in a technically bearish market.

The Transports continue their lead in bearish territory, something its been telling us since the start of the year.


Similar divergent situations occurred in 2007, 2000 and in almost every year leading up to a major market crash. The Transports were well below their 200DSMA since May this year having completed a Death Cross above its 50DSMA on the 26th of May.

That was already an indication of more bearish things to come … and it has come.

The DOW now wears a Bearish Engulfing Pattern in monthly candle configuration and is sitting just a tick above its 50week moving average.

After Double Topping in March and May this year, it would seem that the DOW has now successfully been squeezed out of its Ascending Triangle and looks set for further downside.


The next support confluence will be between 17,300 and 17,100 if the current support at 17,600 fails to hold the price up.

A break below 17,100 is going to be a painful drop to around 16,500. I won’t be holding my breath for a miracle to happen neither am I going to wait for this market to get too painful before deciding what to do. I have already moved my interest to commodities as of the start of the year and it has already been a profitable migration. I will be keeping my money there while considering a few bearish option positions on this equity space.


Since the end of last year, I have been talking and writing about the possibilities within the commodity space. At the start of the year, copper went on a run as I mentioned it would in December.

As recently as last week while I was in K.L., I mentioned that I was waiting for a seasonal spike on wheat and sugar and possibly corn to happen toward the end of June. And guess what? … It has happened.

Many more opportunities are waiting to happen in this often-overlooked space in the financial markets.

On the macro front, America’s Inflation Rate remains deflated at -0.2% while its GDP Growth Rate is negative at 0.2% after a double contraction into negative – a technical recession – since the start of the year into June.

Industrial Production (-0.2%), Factory Orders (-0.4%), Durable Goods (-1.8%), NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (-1.98%) and various other production and manufacturing data all point to a weak American economy. The Housing Index, various home sales and mortgage data also point to a weak real estate situation while Personal Spending and Personal Income numbers also fall.


Outside of America, things look worse. China (above) fell of its parabolic perch and wiped out more than half its year’s gains in only three weeks.


Singapore’s market (above) isn’t faring that much better having fallen into negative for the year since the end of May and looks set to stay entrenched below 3,400 for the time being.


Housing prices (above, in general) are down to 2011 levels while salaries have not increased.

In Malaysia, the threat of an imploding 1MDB has sent the Ringgit down to 2.80 against the Singapore Dollar.

In 2010 and 2011, I mentioned in a previous report that if Malaysia didn’t tend to its debt woes with the utmost seriousness, this cancer will see the country go broke by 2015 and become a sovereign debt country, like Greece, by the year 2018.

So far, the prophetic view of that report seems to have hit the mark with uncanny accuracy. In March this year, when the Ringgit was at 2.65 against the SGD, I said that I wouldn’t be surprised to see it at 3.00 against the SGD by the end of 2015.

Even as I write this, the Ringgit continues to fall against the SGD. The Malaysians are really having a tough time of it if my recent visits to their deserted malls are saying anything about the state of their economy.

And the worst is yet to come.

July Preview

July is the start of quarter three and is the best month in the worst quarter of the year. Having said that, it is also the most volatile month of the trading year. The three months of Q3 are extremely varied with July reputed to be the most volatile, August being the most bearish in the last 20-plus years with no reliable patterns and September, known famously for having the lowest volumes of any month and the most bearish of the calendar year over the last 80-plus years.

July 2015 has 22 full trading sessions and one public holiday (Friday on 3 July). July is known for its volatility with huge swings either way. It is also the start of the third earnings season of the year when companies are known to pull back on their guidance and become conservative about their outlooks.

July Trivia

Key Economic Dates



Stay on the safe side of the trade and remember that besides being in a market threatened by bears, we’re also heading toward August, September and October, traditionally the worst months of the year for the bulls. Be warned and Happy Hunting Always.

Comments Off on May 2015 Review, June Preview

May 2015 Review, June Preview

I did it! I finally did it after 23 years … I went on my second honeymoon! I won’t bore you with the details but those who want to read about what it meant to me can catch up with it by clicking the picture below.


Along with the usual sights and cuisine, this trip meant so much more not only because it was my second honeymoon but also because I visited Waterloo exactly a month before its 200th anniversary …


… stood where blood stained the ground at Flanders Fields, Ypres, Passchendaele and where LTC John McCrae wrote his famous poemI got to visit Patton … and paid my respects to the 101stPIR at Bastogne.

I am finally living my dream of visiting all these amazing historical sites. It is truly awesome to be where all the action went down and realise how much sacrifice was made to give us the life we have today. I am so blessed to be able to do this and honoured to pay my respects to the many who laid down their lives for us.

Just to give you an idea of the many live that were lost, here’s a superb animated video of the numbers that made up the losses in WWII in both theatres of war …

Last year, it was Normandy on its 70th anniversary. This year was Belgium. Next stop, the Pacific.


On May 8, PTT77 got their final session of their nine-week Tutorial. It was a small batch but what they lacked in numbers, they made up in enthusiasm and energy.


After five gruelling sessions, the weekend batch of PTT78 finished their Tutorial on 29 May. This eager batch of traders really stretched my stamina, endurance and knowledge but it was all worth it and gratifying.


I want to wish each and every graduate all the best and much prosperity in the months and years to come. Welcome to our community! This is going to be a long and arduous journey but you are not alone in this. Happy Hunting!


US GDP falls into negative, Consumer sentiment falls to 6 month low, corporate profits drop to 2008 levels and Greece continues to bother

And still the Doves stay resiliently firm on buying.

But what really scares me is the major divergence between the major indices and the Transports. While the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW have been (barely) in positive territory since mid-February, the Transports have been negative all year.

Screen Shot 2015-06-01 at 10.44.48 pm

Its a simple fact – if the transports are weak, its only because the economy has slowed and there’s hardly anything to move anymore. You can’t have a healthy economy if your trucks, trains, freighters and planes aren’t busy.

June Preview

June is the last month of Quarter Two and is a rather bearish month. Traditionally, this is more so if May had sold off. June 2015 has 22 trading sessions. There are no public or trading holidays in June.

June Trivia



Things are really getting hot … and I am not just referring to the weather … and its looking like it will get worse. With bubbles all over the place – equities, properties, consumer prices, etc – it won’t take a lot to bring it all down like a house of cards.

Whatever happens, I am not going to discount the improbable.

Comments Off on What Have We Become?

What Have We Become?

Some time back, I made a posting on Facebook after the Liverpool vs Manchester United match and had a string of other comments that followed. Even my Mom got in on the action.

Followers of my postings on Facebook would have noticed that my Mom and I are rather tight and that we share a love for cooking, good food, humour and a host of other things including our foremost love for God.

This prompted several people to write me asking how come my family is so closely knitted from my Mom to me and me to my kids. My answer was;

Why is yours not?

I found it disconcerting that so many would ask such a thing when it should be the norm. To me, it was like asking, “Why did you slow to stop when the traffic light turned amber?”

Have we, as a society, become so dysfunctional that what is supposed to be normal is not normal anymore?

I believe we have. When once we were courteous and giving, today we are rude and selfish. When once we were conscientious and caring, today we really don’t give a f**k unless we have something to gain by it.

What have we become?

More importantly, WHY have we become like this?

Family values have eroded, no, they have totally lost their way. Respect for your elders no longer exists. Children used to be seen and not heard but now they make themselves heard more than their parents and use it as a weapon to gain what they want. Siblings who loved and cared for their parents in the past now have become bitter and vengeful rivals for their dying parents’ legacies.

Is it about the money? Did society breed all this hate in us? Did the nation’s growing wealth make us greedy and selfish? Has the government failed in raising its citizens right? Have we become so spoilt that its normal for Maria to haul boy-boy’s military full pack? Did we become so ignorant that we blindly trust our government to take care of us when we’re overspending on things we don’t need? Have we become so naive that face and pride precedes common sense?

Are we doing the right things because its the right thing to do?
Or have we mistaken what is actually wrong for normal?

As much as most of you would like to point a finger and blame rather than accept your own failure, the answer is not in the past or what could have been.

It about what we do now to shape the future. 

I was raised on old-fashioned family values and I have raised my kids the same way;

As they become teenagers;

As they become young adults;

Communication is key to healthy relationships. This is even more so in a family. Most grievances within a family can be attributed to a lack of communication and a lack of understanding. Family time is the best time to communicate. Mealtimes like lunch and dinner, whenever possible, should be done together at a proper dining setting (not in front of the TV). The table should be filled with conversations (not mobile coms and tablets). Conversations should be about the children’s interests and adult’s advice (not complaints, grumbles and quarrels). Everyone should have a chance to speak and everyone should listen to whomever is speaking (this is mutual respect). Such occasions always bring the family closer.

Have a fear for God in whatever name you call Him – this is called having a conscience. If you are not religious, then believe that there is always a greater force, a higher authority that will rule and judge us. It is imperative that the family is raised knowing the difference between good and bad. The parents must lead by example. Thus, if you’re going to be a parent or if you are already a parent and you have been shithed without realising it, don’t be surprised when your kids start behaving like you. If you ever ask, “what’s wrong with my kids?” or “why do my kids behave like that?”, all you have to do is look in the mirror for your answer. If you’re going to blame your spouse for that, look in the mirror again. Then get your spouse to do the same.

What goes around, comes around. This also means that if you raise your kids as spoilt, disrespectful and rude brats, you are going to be the biggest victim of what you sowed. These shitty kids will grow up and could care less about their parents (because that’s how they were raised). This is why so many young adults these days see their parents as burdens. Remember that if you expect your kids owe you a living, what are you doing for them today to build that credit?

Respect is earned, never an entitlement and certainly not a given. As parents, you earn the respect of your children by respecting them. By spoiling your child and allowing them to wail for whatever they want is disrespectful to you. When you give in to their demands, you are not earning their respect – you are just goading their greed. When they eventually learn that you can be taken advantage of, they will forever disrespect you because you don’t even have respect for yourself by giving in to someone else’s demands. Let the child know who’s boss. This starts at a very young age. Once they know you’re the boss, they will seek protection, comfort and love from you because you have earned their respect. They will trust you. They will seek your counsel. They will love you unconditionally. However, this does not mean to rule by fear. Fear breeds hate. And hate breeds separation. The child must know that behind every tough decision is a reason of love.

It may seem archaic and middle ages. Sometimes other kids think that my kids are uncool. But then, it did raise the question of how come my family is so tight. The fact that people of all ages are asking the same question proves that being a tight family is cool and having family values rock. Even my children’s peers are saying that my kids have a cool family.

The lamest excuse any parent can have for not doing these things is that they have no time. But there’s always time for the iPad and smartphones. I see that all the time – families out having dinner and everyone is on some electronic device instead of sharing a conversation and enjoying quality family time. Some parents even go to the extent of distracting the little one with the iPad so that they are not bothered by the child’s whims or cries for attention.

It all starts when they are old enough to see. That’s right. From the moment the child opens its eyes, they see and learn. Parents set the way the child will grow and learn. Thus the way your child behaves is a direct reflection of who you are as a parent. The sad fact is that such parents won’t take responsibility for the way their child has become and blame everything and anything else under the sun for their ill fortune for having such an ill mannered and badly behaved child.

Raise your child properly. You can be the biggest recipient of their upbringing or the biggest loser when karma comes knocking.

Have a great weekend ahead and Happy Mother’s Day to all Mothers, Grandmothers and Great Grandmothers. We wouldn’t be here without you.
Comments Off on Monthly Sector Report – Transports April/May 2015

Monthly Sector Report – Transports April/May 2015



Although the market has been struggling to maintain a positive close above the year’s open, the $TRAN has been bearish almost all year. That is the sort of divergence that seasoned traders take special note of as the Transportation Index has been a reliable indicator of the economic health of the US economy.

This month, we break down the individual top components of the index to get an idea of what’s in store and if there are opportunities lying in wait if this market resumes its rally or when it comes down in the next correction.

Subscribers can download their copy here: Transports 2015