Don’t miss this upcoming …
7-HOUR CANDLESTICK &
BREAKOUT PATTERNS WORKSHOP
Next Workshop in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia will be:
Saturday 27 June, 2015 from 10am to 6pm
(Tutorial Preview on Sunday 28 June at 2pm)
Public Admission Fee: RM250
Pattern Trader Graduates: F.O.C.
K-7-9 Block K, No 2 Jalan Solaris
Solaris Mont Kiara, 50480 Kuala Lumpur
Reserve your seat for the next session now!
For bookings, costs and queries, Drop an email to:
email@example.com (For classes in Malaysia)
*LIMITED SEATS, SO BOOK EARLY!!
“Riding The Rate” is my latest article featured in The Business Times’ BTInvest.
Read the full article here: http://einvesthub.btinvest.com.sg/markets/2015/04/13/riding-the-rate/
The month of April is the most bullish month of the trading year and marks the end of the “best six months on the Dow and S&P500”.
But the run will continue on the NASDAQ as tech issues usually run up the charts till June.
This month, we’re looking at the backbone of the tech sector from which all the magic is born – Semiconductors.
Subscribers can download their copy here: Semiconductors 2015
Busy, busy, busy … and when you couldn’t get busier, the Nation loses an icon and we have more to do albeit with a heavy heart.
On Tuesday 10 March, PTT76 completed their Tutorial after seven weeks.
On Friday 20, Malaysia got its first Gathering at our new training centre in Solaris Mont Kiara.
Then for the first time of my public speaking career, I was invited to give a talk about Success and Motivation at the SMART Investment and International Property Expo 2015 at Marina Bay Sands.
We went back to LifeLong Learning Institute on Sunday 29 for the Candlestick & Breakout Patterns Workshop.
More than 60 pax attended this session is it was a blast. We were even visited by Red Bull who handed out complimentary cans of the energy drink, not that we needed more energy – the Candlesticks workshop is always high in energy anyway … it always is because its my favourite workshop. But we were grateful for the refreshing break.
IN MEMORY OF …
Without doubt, the biggest event for any Singaporean in March 2015 was the passing of our country’s first Prime Minister, Mr Lee Kuan Yew at age 91 on Monday 23rd March on our 50th year of independence.
What followed was a very testing week and an emotionally draining time for the nation. He was finally put to rest on Sunday 29 March when even Mother Nature wept heavily at his departure.
As we close a chapter on this Island’s first 50 years of nation building that Mr Lee started and worked so hard to achieve, its now up to us to ensure we don’t screw up everything he made so good for us to inherit.
Thank you, Sir, for the legacy you have entrusted us to keep dear.
Rest well and peacefully, now and forever.
So AAPL finally gets into the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I suspect things are going to get real volatile now. Q1 has been a roller coaster for the US market, spending almost as much time in the red as in the black.
For the record;
- The DOW closed out the quarter at 17,776.12 losing 46.95 points (-0.3%), its first losing quarter since Q1 last year.
- The S&P500 ended the quarter at 2,067.89, gaining 0.4% and extending its winning streak to nine quarters in the process.
- The Nasdaq Composite finished at 4,900.88 (+3.5%) for the quarter. That makes it nine quarters in a row – its longest (quarterly) winning streak in its history.
March 2015 became the month the Fed “lost its patience” and made stronger implications of raising interest rates by mid 2015. The US economy also began revealing cracks in their “recovery” and began admitting that revenues haven’t been that stellar. Going into April 2015’s earning season, we’re getting shots fired across our bow screaming out profit warnings. Of the 500 S&P500 companies providing first-quarter outlooks, 84% have been negative.
Report from MarketWatch: Profit Warnings Piling Up
As of the close of 31 March 2015, 380 of the S&P500 companies wore PEs above 15 which means that 76% of the S&P500 is overbought.
The Dollar Index broke above 100 to set a multi-year high while Crude, Nat Gas, Gold and Copper wallowed at multi-year lows but looking likely to be breaking out of those lows in recent sessions.
Things are getting freakier in the markets and increasingly difficult to trade. Volatility is unusually high and volumes haven’t been encouraging. Caution is still the watch-word for now and I will be keeping my money in commodities more than any other security as we go into Q2.
April has been the most bullish month of the calendar year with an average gain of 1.9% since 1950. The last nine years were up, including 2008, with an average gain of 3.1%. April is the first month ever to have seen a 1000 point gain on the DOW in 1999.
This April 2015 has 21 trading days and one public holiday. It is the start of Quarter 2 and the beginning of Earnings Season for Q1 results. April is also the last of the “Best Six Months” on the DOW and S&P500.
- The first trading day of April is the most bullish of the month with the DOW up 16 of the last 20
- The day before Good Friday has been up on NASDAQ 14 straight years
- Friday 03 April is Good Friday – U.S. Markets will be closed.
- Non-Farm Payrolls will still be announced on Friday 03 April.
- The first four days of April make up the most bullish week of the month
- However, the day after Easter is the second worst post-holiday session
- The second week starts out weak but ends strongly
- The third week starts strongly and stays bullish
- The Monday before April Expiration has been up on the DOW for the 18 of the last 26 (down 5 of the last 10)
- April Expiration Friday has seen the DOW close up 14 of the last 18 (last year down)
- The fourth week starts well but is prone to weakness after mid-week
- Wednesday 29 April – FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate Policy Announcement
- April usually ends well
- Crude continues rallying into mid-May
- Nat Gas tops out in mid-to-late April
- Gold declines a little in April
- Silver also falls till the third week of April
- Copper strengthens and tops out at the end of April to early May
- Soya and Corn stay strong
- Wheat stays weak
- Cocoa’s decline from March continues into April and bottoms mid month
- Coffee stays strong
- Sugar remains weak
So we lay to rest the Man who made Singapore happen and now venture into a future he left for us to make our own.
Let’s pray and hope we don’t waste it all away by being selfish, complacent and ignorant. If the first 50 years under LKY brought us here, let’s make sure the next 50 takes us to a higher high and not regress and destroy all that he worked for.
I read this report that said that copper has lost its edge as a leading indicator. I think this report is rubbish. Firstly, one should never use correlations or divergence to trade or invest – that’s akin to gambling when there are safer, surer ways to make proper analyses without being so speculative.
This report misses the main point by a mile. It says that copper as an indicator has lost its way. But has it? It says that the US economy has been doing well as so have the markets. Have they? Really?
So while the US market continues to stay resilient and its data continues to imply that all is well, we ignore copper because its lost its shine?
In my opinion, most of America and its reporters have looked past one major possibility that copper is pointing to because they never had such a situation plague them in their history – Deflation. And this Deflation is currently in full force. The markets and the economy are lagging indicators.
Although they never admitted it, the US had been going through a minor Stagflationary period between 2010 and 2014 when their inflation keep rising while growth stayed stagnant (but in positive).
We can argue the validity of the market run – whether its really because the market is doing well versus buybacks, lower volumes and index manipulation.
We can also argue about the employment rate, GDP and economic data versus creative accounting and statistical manipulation.
But the one thing we can never discount is the force of actual Supply-And-Demand in the commodities space.
(With contributions by R.M.)
Here is the Continuous Commodity Index (broad commodity index).
While the dollar rally and the weakness across the energy patch are pressuring commodities, other drivers exist as well. One specific commodity to watch closely is lumber. Here’s the May-2015 lumber futures contract. It is an indication of slower US housing demand on higher rates ahead. The Canadian housing market is losing value.
This is a reflection of the raw materials prices in China: steel rebar (used in construction) and iron ore (May-2015 contract). The rebar weakness tells us not to expect a housing recovery in China this spring.
China’s recent growth downgrade is sending iron ore futures to multi-year lows.
While the focus has been on crude oil, a number of non-energy commodities are also in downtrends.
With the Fed’s expected rate hike in 2015 and further dollar strength widely expected, the global deflationary environment is pressuring commodities across the board.
It has been my assessment since Q3 2014, that the world (not just the US) is headed for another major downturn cycle. What Japan went through in the late 1990s has been replicated on a global scale in the last six years. If Japan’s history is going to repeat itself on a global scale, copper is definitely showing us how bad it will be.
For now, I am calling it a Great Deflation.
I don’t totally agree with the headline but the overall piece is good. Your degree may be a useless bit of paper but the education is something you will need unless you picked a major that is not relevant to your passion.
Your upbringing will be your next qualification as it will determine your attitude (rather than a qualified aptitude) in getting that first job. Your personality will be the next qualification (especially in finance) because making money is not the only requirement – financial management is the determining factor because your financial habits will dictate the kind of salary you are demanding and employers would rather employ someone who is prudent rather than lavish.
Then come your mannerisms, sociability, etiquette and humility. You can argue the points all you want but I am proof that such qualities do get you jobs rather than your qualifications – I am a dropout – because I got hefty paycheques as an employee and as a employer, these were the kinds of qualities I picked over qualifications. I have done it all and seen it all from the other side and my graduate peers were always curious as to why they lost out to a dropout.
Many SG Uni grads may feel that it was a waste of time and money only because they took the MOE route which is really lengthy and costly. Most do so probably for the prestige, others because of influence and for some the higher possibility of getting a government based job only to lose out to those who took a more efficient route via off-shore universities that can cost much less. Some of these local grads also have a strong sense of entitlement that make employers pass them over for the graduate that was exposed to foreign challenges under humbling circumstances.
This will forever be an endless argument between those who do and those who don’t but the results at the end of the day are very clear – its the local grads that are unhappier and more demanding whereas grads from off-shore universities tend to be more satisfied and gainfully employed in the private sector as their wage demands are easier and more realistic to meet.
I particularly like the end of the article – It is ok to fail.
This is something most SG grads have a hard time accepting. Private grads don’t have this problem because they have failed which is why they ended up in private universities in the first place!
My 76th batch of the Pattern Trader Tutorial formally completed its course last night (10 March 2015) after 8 sessions and more than 40 hours of tutorials. They still have more to come this Friday and for the next eight weeks as they go into Tutelage for their hands-on experience.
Sherman Koh attend my Tutorial in 2007 when it was then known as WAT (Wealth Academy Trader). Back then, it was a 14 chapter, 18-to-24 hour workshop over four or five nights. It would have cost Sherman around S$2,888.00 to $$3,288.00 if memory serves me well.
Nearly eight years later, Sherman returned to attend the Tutorial again having only to fork out an administrative fee of $$100 and $$99 for the new textbook. What he got was a brand new Tutorial with (effectively) 32 chapters in more than 45 hours of tutorials over eight lessons in the same intimate classroom setting, albeit it in newer facilities with much improved support.
But his experience was … I will leave him to tell it to you.
Thank you for another awesome run of the PTT. As a resit student from WAT06 way back in 2007, I was at 1st a bit apprehensive about attending PTT76. Someone asked me: “Now that Conrad is rich and successful, will the course be overly commercialised? Will he still teach with the same passion and sincerity? Will he even be the one personally teaching to begin with?”
Eight lessons on:
– Still the same intimate classroom setting with limited number of students (instead of packing a few hundred people into a lecture theatre, commonly practiced by other gurus)
– The same Conrad teaching every single lesson, of course now supported by a team of very capable coaches.
– Lessons often extending beyond 11pm to ensure the content is well covered. Coaches staying past midnight to assist students with technical problems and answering our queries.
The content revisions from eight years ago is mind blowing. Back then we had a few pages of notes given out weekly. Today, the course material is a huge 400-page volume of knowledge. “Re-sit” is an understatement. PTT76 is really an “Advanced WAT” to me. That you insist that your students come back for a 2nd round is unheard of in the industry. Most gurus would be more than happy to reserve every available seat for new students paying the full price. That is the greatest assurance that we can always count on your team’s continued support even after our graduation.
I was reflecting on the key differences between PTT and some of the other trading courses out there, some of which I have attended previews. Incidentally I think it can all be summarised using “The 10 Truths of Online Trading” from Conrad’s new book:
1. You will lose money.
* Others assure you that you will make money..lots of it, setting up all kinds of unrealistic expectations where students think they can be millionaires within months.
2. Online trading is tough
* Others make it sound way too easy. How often have we heard that “even housewives, people with no computer knowledge, retirees can succeed after a 3-day seminar?”
3. There are more losers than winners.
* Others say that their seminars can make everyone a winner, a big winner, and a very easy winner.
4. It takes money to make money
* Others tell you that you very little money to start, which is fine for those without a huge budget. What is not fine, is when they tell you how fast your little money can grow to 6-digit, 7-digit profits.
5. It takes a long time to become a good trader.
6. You must learn everything
7. It takes endless hours of training and practice
8. You need a lot of patience
* Others say that 3 days/5 days (over 2 weekends) is all that is needed. They teach you some “proprietary method” that promises quick gains. Nothing more than 15min a day. Even today, we continue to see advertisements featuring “testimonials” of uncles and aunties “turning $300 to $15000 in 4 weeks”. That is a crime.
A final thought. Whether we eventually become good traders depends on so many factors – our own discipline, aptitude, attitude, how we juggle work, family and trading. Too often, a trading course is judged based on whether “it made us rich from trading”. Let’s just say that the same Finance degree from NUS produces bank executives stuck at junior management and it also produces CFOs. Before I make my 1st dollar from the market (or lose my 1st dollar to it), I will say that resitting the course has been a great decision and investment of my time this year. I will not hesitate to recommend anyone aspiring to be a successful trader to attend the PTT.
To all my course mates, good luck, and happy hunting!!
This is what my graduates are entitled to and proof that I hold my promises dear. His testimonial is what many other old students share for being part of what was created more than eight years ago. It is the best compliment any teacher would want.
I teach because I love to teach. While other teachers and gurus move on and give the teaching responsibilities to others, I still front my own Tutorial. No one sells it for me, no one teaches it for me and no one supports the students more than me. This is my passion and it is what keeps me growing.
Many have emulated, modelled and copied what I do throughout the years. But they will never replicate or match my passion to educate, my dedication to mentor and my desire to groom. Fewer still have my stamina to last as long as I have doing it the way I do.
And its testimonials like these that drive me to do more for future graduates.
Thank you Sherman, for the faith and trust and loyalty after all these years.
And a big thanks to the coaches who made it a great experience for the students. This Tutorial would not be if not for your selfless contributions.
Don’t miss this upcoming …
7-HOUR CANDLESTICK &
BREAKOUT PATTERNS WORKSHOP
“THE HISTORY OF MONEY”
DON’T MISS THIS ENLIGHTENING SESSION!!
SUNDAY 29 MARCH, 2015
09:30 TO 18:00 HOURS
To reserve your seat, please send an email to
Lifelong Learning Institute
11 Eunos Road 8,
Reserve your seat for the next session now!
Make your booking at: firstname.lastname@example.org (For classes in Singapore)
*LIMITED SEATS, SO BOOK EARLY!!
WAT/PTT Grads : FOC
DIRECTIONS AND ROUTES
I guess this is why SG50 rejected that beautiful song, “One” …
… because we’re #1 in everything, including continuing being the most expensive for the second year running.
Singaporeans are so docile, naive and ignorant for accepting this way of life. To us on the street, everything feels “normal” in our over-sheltered lives and perceived comfort zones because we don’t realise how our country is bleeding us bit by bit, slowly but surely, minute after minute … we just pay and pay. Why are we accepting such high prices and why aren’t we in control of inflation?
This is not a case of “if you don’t like it here, then leave” … for me, this is my home. I have always loved this Little Red Dot. I served my nation with pride and paid my dues with honour. But my nation continues to bleed me needlessly.
This is not a case of “if we’re the richest country then of course we’re the most expensive” … for me, that’s arrogance. Just because you’re rich doesn’t mean you pay more.
A plate of chicken rice is the same price for the employee and his millionaire employer. If the employer has to pay more for this chicken rice, so will the employee. The only person getting richer is the chicken rice seller who is paying the same price for his ingredients but charging more in the name of profit.
If you ask the chicken rice seller why he is charging more when his rental, cost and expenses haven’t risen and even factor in lower oil prices, falling commodity prices and lower borrowing rates, the chicken rice seller will probably answer one of the following things;
- What we do is too complex for you to understand
- Please talk to my lawyer and be accountable for what you say
- What do you think?
What we don’t realise is that the chicken rice seller is apportioning the extra profit and getting a buddy to invest it. This buddy isn’t a very good investor and has a nasty record of losing big money fast and making small money slowly. So if it works out, the chicken rice seller and his investing buddy have extra money from the extra profit and they didn’t have to work for it. Heck, they don’t even pay taxes on it. If they lose it, then its okay because it wasn’t their nest egg that got hurt.
With the extra money he got from the investment, the chicken rice seller now renovates his shop and upgrades the image. He charges more. But now he has sets that you can choose from – the standard plate that the employee can afford and the set meal with soup, veggie and achar that the employer would likely buy.
Foreigners start coming into the restaurant and you notice that the chicken rice seller serves his foreign patrons with more enthusiasm and gives them healthier servings with no GST. They also get to sit in the better half of the restaurant. Sometimes they also get free drinks.
As time goes by, you’ll notice the chicken rice seller becoming good friends with the employer while hardly recognising the employee in spite of them both being regular patrons. The employer gets an extra cut of meat, more veggies and the occasional free chicken feet while the employee’s serving gets smaller because of “inflation”.
The employee’s friend who has been a regular at the chicken rice shop since forever is now unemployed and bankrupt and can’t feed his family because he can’t find work. Chicken rice seller says he can’t help him but throws out three servings of chicken rice that wasn’t sold that day along with some soup and veggies.
An old Uncle who helped clear the dishes and wipe the tables during the early days of the chicken rice stall is still slogging his butt off for the same meagre wage that hardly pays the bills. Uncle can’t retire because he has no savings and the chicken rice seller is not giving handouts except for the annual $4 Ang Pow at Chinese New Year.
The chicken rice seller gets richer this way and keeps pumping his extra monies to the investing buddy for more “risk-free” investments that Uncle’s, unemployed friend’s and employee’s taxes have gone into.
Eventually, the employer gets introduced to the investing buddy …
I guess you know where this is going – the rich will get richer and the poor will always get f**ked in spite of being loyal, faithful and patriotic.
So, are we still proud of being #1? Because 25 years ago, I scoffed at those living in New York and Tokyo for being idiots living in such expensive cities when they could live like kings in any other country.
Karma’s a bitch.
This is the fourth time we’re featuring this massive industry. The first time we did it was in May 2009, followed by another in August 2010. The last one was at the end of June 2013 just after the Paris Air Show.
We thought it would be timely to feature this sector again as it goes into its traditional Contract Commission season as the financial year comes to an end.
Let’s also be reminded that this year, we will be having the 51st International Paris Air Show between 15 and 21 June at the at the Le Bourget Parc des Expositions.
This is going to be a busy year for the Aerospace and Defense industries.
So get your issue of the Aerospace & Defense 2015 sector report now!