Comments Off on PATTERN TRADER TUTORIAL PREVIEW (SINGAPORE)

PATTERN TRADER TUTORIAL PREVIEW (SINGAPORE)

PTT86 1st day

In response to the many queries regarding the Pattern Trader Tutorial’s upcoming batch in August, we have arrange to have a Preview Session to satisfy everyone who wrote in;

Date: Tuesday, 20 June 2017
Time: 07:00pm to 10:00pm (registration starts at 06:30PM)
Venue:
51 Cuppage Road,
Acc EduHub #03-03

Vibrant Room 3
Singapore 229469
(behind The Centrepoint & next to The Holiday Inn Hotel)

Screen Shot 2017-06-03 at 9.23.23 AM

This will be our very first preview outside of our former representative event company. Thus, we will be making a very special offer on the night for the first 10 sign ups at a one-time low price to kick start our independence.

You can book your free complimentary HERE: INTRODUCTORY SESSION TO MACROTRADING

During this session, you will find out the following:
  • The difference between trading and investing that many don’t consider as risk.
  • Discover how you can trade various markets and instruments like Equities/Stocks, Currencies, Futures, Commodities, Options and Bonds.
  • Discover the fundamental know-how and skill sets you require to trade profitably on a consistent basis.
  • Get a glimpse of how professional traders use a 400-year-old technique to make highly reliable and low-risk trades.
  • Reliable trading strategies that best suit your psychology, lifestyle and needs.
  • How your own Trading Psychology can give you a winning edge or a losing habit.
  • Master the Trading Psychology that can help you to ride out the market’s irrationality and manipulations.
  • Proper Financial Management habits that can help to increase and improve your winning edge.

PLUS!! Be amongst the first to be introduced to the LATEST PATTERN TRADER™ TUTORIAL EDITION 10 SYLLABUS

This is the most complete financial syllabus that you’re not going to find anywhere else because this is a very unique and exclusive program. It is not for those who are dreaming about becoming millionaires or attaining financial freedom because this is not a bullshit program. Past graduates have testified that this is more complete than most MBA programs. It is designed for those who wish to know everything about their finances and how economics can affect their money without attending a formal education.

The Tutorial gives the participant the knowledge and skills required to begin or accelerate their financial journey in the money markets online and offline. This is material you will never find in books or other workshops because those experiences only happen to the REAL MACROTRADERS who know how the market works, how the floor operates and how the institutions make it their killing field.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SINGAPORE – PTT91, August 18 to 20, 25 to 27, 2017

This Bootcamp will be held over 6 sessions over two weekends (50 hours) including the Platform Familiarization Workshop.

Screen Shot 2017-06-01 at 7.13.18 PM

For Tutorial details, go here: PTT91 in Singapore

The incoming queries have been encouraging to say the least and I’d like to thank all those who made recommendations to their friends and families to attend the Tutorial.

REMEMBER to book your free complimentary HERE: INTRODUCTORY SESSION TO MACROTRADING

Happy Hunting!!

Share
Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 30 May 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 30 May 2017 BMO

REMINDER: MONDAY 29 MAY IS MEMORIAL DAY – US MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED.

 

Screen Shot 2017-05-27 at 12.34.08 PM

The stock market registered five wins this week, three of which resulted in a new record high for the S&P 500. A continuation of last week’s ‘buy-the-dip’ trade fueled the bulls at the beginning of the week, but the FOMC minutes from the May 2-3 meeting became the catalyst for the midweek move to new record highs. For the week, the S&P 500 added 1.4%.

Before moving into record-high territory, investors had to repair the damage done by last week’s 800-pound gorilla; namely, a New York Times article that highlighted a potential obstruction of justice move by President Trump. The allegation prompted the stock market’s worst one-day decline since September on May 17, therefore, investors’ first priority was reclaiming what was lost.

Two modest wins on Monday (+0.5%) and Tuesday (+0.2%) put the S&P 500 right at the 2,400 mark, which is the level it hit right before the swoon on May 17. Led by the financial sector, the benchmark index challenged said level a few times on Tuesday, but it just needed a little something extra to get over the hump. The FOMC minutes from the May 2-3 meeting answered the call on Wednesday.

In the minutes, the Fed revealed a possible approach to unwind its massive balance sheet; the central bank would like to introduce a gradual increase of caps to limit the reinvestment of maturing securities. In addition, the Fed’s willingness to discuss the issue showed that the central bank has pretty good confidence in the economic outlook, having attributed first quarter weakness to transitory factors.

Following the report, the S&P 500 advanced to new record highs on Wednesday and Thursday. However, investors in the crude oil futures market weren’t so bullish. The energy component tumbled nearly 5.0% on Thursday after OPEC and non-OPEC nations agreed to extend their current production adjustment by nine months, but stopped short of increasing the magnitude of the supply cut.

Equities finished the week with a sleepy, range-bound performance on Friday as investors got a jump start on the extended holiday weekend. For the week, the top-weighted technology sector outperformed yet again, adding 2.3%, with Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Facebook (FB) increasing their aggregate market value to an astounding $2.93 trillion.

The fed funds futures market still points to the June FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 83.1%, up from last week’s 78.5%.

The stock market will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.

On Tuesday, investors will receive April Personal Income (consensus 0.4%) and Spending (consensus 0.4%) at 8:30 ET and May Consumer Confidence (consensus 119.5) at 10:00 ET.

(Excerpts from Briefing.com)

GDP, Dollar

Bonds yields: The 2-year/30-year Treasury yield spread narrowed to 160 basis points, a post-election low.

Commodities; WTI Crude Oil closes near $50/barrel after falling off a cliff on Thursday.

Agriculture: Soy continues to slump as grains gain.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

THE WEEK AHEAD

Wk22forJUNEMonday 29 May to Friday 02 June (Week 22)

The twenty-second week of 2017 (wk22) is mildly bearish for the DIA while the SPY should be quite flat.

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages (based on 21 years) for week 22;

Screen Shot 2017-05-28 at 10.45.23 AM

Key Economic Dates

Mon 29 May

Tue 30 May

Wed 31 May

Thu 01 June

Fri 02 June

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SUMMARY

What a strange and divergent week it has been. Now with a shortened week ahead and the start of a new month, we might see the bulls stretch this rally to higher highs yet.

Share
Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 22 May 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 22 May 2017 BMO

Screen Shot 2017-05-20 at 12.25.18 PM

After posting its worst one-day loss in eight months on Wednesday (-1.8%), the stock market ended the week with two bounce-back performances that left the S&P 500 with just a modest loss for the week (-0.4%). The benchmark index challenged its flat line for the week at the peak of Friday’s slow and steady climb, but couldn’t hold its session high into the closing bell. The major averages settled in the middle of the day’s trading range with the S&P 500 and the Dow adding 0.7% apiece. The Nasdaq (+0.5%) settled just a tick below its peers.

Thursday’s positive sentiment lingered in the stock market on Friday morning, granting the major averages modest gains at the opening bell. From there, the industrials (+1.4%), energy (+1.2%), and financials (+0.8%) groups led the stock market in a slow and steady climb. The industrial sector rallied around Deere’s (DE 120.90, +8.23) stronger than expected earnings and upbeat guidance. DE shares jumped 7.3% while peer Caterpillar (CAT 102.43, +2.21) also profited from the positive sentiment, adding 2.2%.

Crude oil underpinned the energy sector’s positive performance, jumping 2.0% to $50.33/bbl, after reports that an OPEC panel is considering the possibility of not only extending its deal to cut oil production, which Russia and Saudi Arabia spoke in favor of earlier in the week, but also increasing the size of the production cut. For the week, the energy component added 5.2%.

After opening the week with a record-high close, equities took a hit in the midweek session after an article in the New York Times highlighted a potential obstruction of justice move by President Trump. However, the bulk of Wednesday’s loss was retraced in the second half of the week as a ‘buy the dip’ mentality set in. The S&P 500 ended the week lower by 0.4%.

Crude oil was a focal point on Monday, jumping 2.1% to $48.86/bbl, on news that the world’s top two oil producers–Saudi Arabia and Russia–are in favor of extending the original OPEC/non-OPEC supply cut agreement, which is currently scheduled to end in June, by another nine months. The commodity’s positive performance helped the benchmark index climb 0.5% to a fresh all-time high.

The major averages ended the second session of the week little changed, but a solid performance from mega-cap names like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) pushed the Nasdaq to another record high. Led by NVIDIA (NVDA), chipmakers also underpinned the tech-heavy Nasdaq with the PHLX Semiconductor Index adding 1.5% for the second day in a row.

On Wednesday, equities suffered their worst one-day decline since September following a New York Times article that claimed President Trump asked former FBI Director James Comey to shut down the Bureau’s investigation of former National Security adviser Michael Flynn. If true, some legal experts believe the alleged incident would qualify as obstruction of justice, which is an impeachable offense.

The allegation forced Wall Street to come to a quick realization that President Trump’s pro-growth agenda items (i.e. tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure spending) might not come to fruition as quickly as envisioned or perhaps not at all. The S&P 500 settled Wednesday’s session with a loss of 1.8%. However, the bearish sentiment didn’t last long as investors ‘bought the dip’ on Thursday.

Underpinned by the semiconductor and biotechnology industries, the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% on Thursday in the face of a Reuters report that the Trump campaign might have had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russian officials and others with Kremlin ties leading up to, and after, the U.S. presidential election. The potentially concerning report helped keep the S&P 500 below its 50-day simple moving average, but the key technical level was no match for the bulls on Friday.

VIXThe major U.S. indices ended the week on a positive note with the S&P 500 adding 0.7%. The Friday session had a risk-on feel to it with cyclical sectors showing relative strength, Treasuries ticking down, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropping over two points. Crude oil came back into focus once again, jumping 2.0% to $50.33/bbl, following reports that top oil producers will consider increasing the size of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut when they meet on May 25.

The fed funds futures market still points to the June FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 78.5%, unchanged from last week’s 78.5%.

Investors did not receive any economic data on Friday. Monday’s economic calendar is also blank.

(Excerpts from Briefing.com)

Dollar Falls to 6-Month Low, Again

Bonds yields: The belly of the curve took the biggest drop for the week with the 10year yield losing 10bps.

Commodities; WTI Crude closes the week above $50/bbl as the total U.S. rig count increased by 16 to 901 following last week’s increase of 8. Copper gains $0.05 for the week.

Agriculture: Soy continues to slump as grains gain.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ScanTHE WEEK AHEAD

Monday 22 to Friday 26 May (Week 21)

The twenty-first week of 2017 (wk21) is mildly bullish for the DIA and SPY with averagely less than 60% over the 5, 10 and 15 year averages.

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages (based on 21 years) for week 21;

Screen Shot 2017-05-20 at 4.01.42 PM

Key Economic Dates

Tue 23 May

Wed 24 May

Thu 25 May

Fri 26 May

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SUMMARY

For the coming week, the seasonal model is in conflict with the Almanac’s averages where one is mildly bullish based on 5, 10 and 15 year averages and the other is bearish based on a 21-year average. It is not uncommon given that the 21 year average takes in the Asian and Russian Financial Crises and the bearish years of 2000 to 2002.

I am sticking my my seasonal model given that its more recent and relevant to the current economic and market climates. However, I do so with caution as it is still May and the possibility of a Sell-Off should not be underestimated.

Share
Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 15 May 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 15 May 2017 BMO

Screen Shot 2017-05-14 at 7.39.04 PM

After posting gains for four weeks in a row, the S&P 500 suffered a slight setback this week, ticking lower by 0.4%. However, the Nasdaq enjoyed a small victory, adding 0.3%, as it continued to ride the relative strength of Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), and a gaggle of semiconductor issues led by NVIDIA (NVDA).

The S&P 500 was flat through the first three sessions of the week with a slim loss on Tuesday wiping out small victories on Monday and Wednesday. The range-bound performances followed Sunday’s French presidential election in which centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron handily defeated far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, as expected. Mr. Macron’s victory was seen as a positive for global equity markets as it takes the possibility of France leaving the European Union off the table for the foreseeable future.

With a key risk event averted, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to a historically-low level. The VIX, also known as the “investor fear gauge”, settled Monday at its lowest mark since December 1993 and finished Tuesday and Wednesday below 10.00. Prior to this week, the VIX had only settled below the 10.00 mark nine times.

Crude oil became a focal point on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported the largest weekly decline in U.S. crude stocks so far this year. The bullish reading prompted a two-day rally for the commodity, and the energy sector, which ultimately left WTI crude with a weekly gain of 3.5%.

Also of note, President Trump unexpectedly fired FBI Director James Comey on Wednesday. That move triggered a tidal wave of political opinions and raised some concerns about the path of progress for the Trump Administration’s pro-growth plans that stymied the stock market. Overall, though, it did not cause any major selling in the stock market.

Retailers captured investors’ attention on Thursday when Macy’s (M) plunged 17.0% in reaction to its disappointing earnings report. Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN), and J.C. Penney (JCP) also slipped after delivering their quarterly results, leaving the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) lower by 2.9% for the week. Disappointing Retail Sales for April (+0.4% actual vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus) didn’t help matters, but some of the sting of that headline was taken out by an upward revision for March to 0.1% from -0.3%.

April CPI came in roughly as expected on Friday with total CPI rising 0.2% (consensus 0.2%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, adding 0.1% (consensus 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 2.2% and core CPI has increased 1.9%. Following the data, Chicago Fed President Evans said that he expects one or two additional rate hikes this year with the actual number depending on the level of inflation.

The fed funds futures market still points to the June FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 78.5%, down from last week’s 83.1%. In the Treasury market, increased buying interest in the second half of the of week left the benchmark 10-yr yield at 2.33%, which is two basis points below last Friday’s closing level.

The S&P 500 posted modest losses on Thursday and Friday, which is what ultimately tipped the week in the bears’ favor.

On the data front, investors received March Business Inventories and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for May in addition to the April CPI and Retail Sales reports:

(Excerpts from Briefing.com)

Bonds yields: Shorter maturities’ yields fall to steepen the curve.

Commodities; WTI Crude closes the week with small gain, ending just below $48/bbl.

Agriculture: Mostly lower for the week.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Screen Shot 2017-05-14 at 7.43.56 PMTHE WEEK AHEAD

Monday 15 to Friday 19 May (Week 20)

The twentieth week of 2017 (wk20) is bearish for the DIA and SPY with 80% over the 5 year average and more than 70% over the 10 and 15 year averages.

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the week;

Screen Shot 2017-05-15 at 5.37.14 PM

Key Economic Dates

Sun 14 May

Mon 15 May

Tue 16 May

Wed 17 May

Thu 18 May

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SUMMARY

With Friday closing in the red, this sets up yet another possibility of another DFDM, which will make it 2 of the last 3 weeks and 7 out of the last 11 weeks – the most congested series of DFDMs since the Dot.com era. Looking at how the futures fell off a cliff this Monday afternoon leads me to believe that this is a very likely scenario.

DFDM15May

This morning, Monday 15 May, Crude oil futures jumped to a two-week high after Saudi Arabian and Russian energy ministers in a joint statement said they back a nine-month extension to the current production cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. That would keep current output caps in place through the first quarter of 2018 if agreed to by all parties at the coming May 25 OPEC meeting.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM7, +2.53%  rallied 91 cents, or 1.9%, to $48.75, trading at its highest level since May 1. July Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange LCON7, +2.46%  gained 90 cents, or 1.8% at $51.75. Before the announcement, oil prices were essentially flat.

That should set up an interesting week in the oil market this week.

Happy Hunting!!

Share
Comments Off on Monthly Sector Report Will Be Back

Monthly Sector Report Will Be Back

Screen Shot 2017-05-13 at 10.27.17 AM

We’re taking the Monthly Sector Report offline for a few months as the Pattern Trader™ makes its transition into its new site.

Any inconvenience is regretted and we look forward to your continued support when the report returns in August 2017 with a new lease of life and a spankingly brand new look and format.

Conrad.

Share
Comments Off on Pattern Trader Tutorial Updated Schedules

Pattern Trader Tutorial Updated Schedules

IMG_5121

There has been a flood of queries regarding the Pattern Trader Tutorial’s upcoming (post AKLTG) batches and previews. I truly appreciate the support and look forward to supporting all of you who inquired.

As we are in transition, we ask for everyone’s cooperation and patience in these matters as we sort out and iron out every administrative and logistic issue one at a time.

To ease matters, please refer to the schedules below for the upcoming batches. This should clear up everything and keep things organised.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SINGAPORE – PTT91, August 18 to 20, 25 to 27, 2017

This Bootcamp will be held over 6 sessions over two weekends (50 hours) including the Platform Familiarization Workshop.

PTT91Schedule

For Tutorial details, go here: PTT91 in Singapore

For costing and further queries, please send your inquiries to support@patterntrader.com

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

KUALA LUMPUR – To be confirmed, sometime in Q1 2018

The revised format for the KL Bootcamp will be the same as Penang.

Screen Shot 2017-04-25 at 2.03.11 PM

For Tutorial details, go here: KL 2017/2018 Tutorial

For preview dates, costing and further queries, please send your inquiries to support@patterntrader.com

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The incoming queries have been encouraging to say the least and I’d like to thank all those who made recommendations to their friends and families to attend the Tutorial.

The Tutorial will continue to educate as it has done for more than eleven years now and will continue to grow and get better with every passing year.

Happy Hunting!!

Share
Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 8 May 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 8 May 2017 BMO

Screen Shot 2017-05-07 at 9.52.57 PM

The major averages wrapped up the range-bound week with modest Friday gains. The S&P 500 (+0.4%) and the Nasdaq (+0.4%) finished at new record highs while the Dow (+0.3%) settled just a step behind its peers. For the week, the S&P 500 added 0.6%.

Buyers had a slight edge from the jump after the Employment Situation Report for April showed better than expected nonfarm payrolls (211,000 actual vs 180,000) and lower than expected unemployment (4.4% actual vs 4.6%). However, the Jobs report did have a few blemishes. Namely, the labor force participation rate dipped to 62.9% from 63.0% and average hourly earnings decelerated on a year-over-year basis (to 2.5% from 2.6%).

The S&P 500 opened the week by eking out back-to-back wins. Monday’s marginal victory was fueled by the top-weighted technology and financials sectors while Tuesday’s uptick took place despite the lack of sector leadership and crude oil’s 2.5% decline. On the political front, Congress reached an agreement to keep the government funded through September while President Trump reiterated that he might like to break up the nation’s biggest banks.

On Wednesday, the benchmark index registered its first, and only, loss of the week (-0.1%) after Apple (AAPL) reported lower than expected iPhone unit sales. However, the tech giant’s upbeat earnings kept losses in check. The FOMC voted to leave the fed funds target range unchanged at 0.75%-1.00%, as expected, with the accompanying policy statement providing little to no new information.

The House of Representatives passed the revised American Health Care Act on Thursday, a big victory for the GOP. However, the bill will face heavy resistance in the Senate, where it can only afford to lose two Republican votes. Crude oil also made headlines, plunging 4.7% to a five-month low near $45.50/bbl. The tumble was credited to a string of disappointing inventory reports, some weak data out of China, and the deteriorating technical picture for the commodity. The S&P 500 added 0.1%.

Buyers were intrigued by Friday’s better than expected Employment Situation Report for April, however, gains were capped once again ahead of the final round of the French presidential election, which will take place on Sunday. Polls suggest that Emmanuel Macron will easily defeat his rival Marine Le Pen, which has been construed as a positive for global equity markets given Ms. Le Pen’s anti-EU rhetoric. France’s CAC ended the week at its highest level in over ten years.

In the end, despite the range-bound action, this week will be remembered as a happy one with the S&P 500 advancing for the fourth week in a row, adding 0.6%. The fed funds futures market still points to the June FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 83.1%, up from last week’s 66.6%.

NON-FARM PAYROLLS

(Excerpts from Briefing.com)

Bonds yields

Commodities; Crude fell below $44p/b and recovered late in the week.

Agriculture:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Screen Shot 2017-05-07 at 10.43.20 PMTHE WEEK AHEAD

Monday 08 to Friday 12 May (Week 19)

The nineteenth week of 2017 (wk19) is flat-to-bullish for the DIA and SPY with low average of 55% over the 5, 10 and 15 year averages.

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the week are bullish at the start, flat midweek and mildly bearish at the end of the week:

Screen Shot 2017-05-08 at 9.48.29 AM

Key Economic Dates

Mon 08 May

Tue 09 MayScreen Shot 2017-05-07 at 10.43.00 PM

Wed 10 May

Thu 11 May

Fri 12 May

Sun 14 May

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SUMMARY

I won’t be expecting much this week and will probably hold out trading anything until next week when the averages are higher and earnings season wraps up. Too busy now to trade too actively anyway.

Happy Hunting!!

Share
Comments Off on Sector Report 1704 : Vice 2017

Sector Report 1704 : Vice 2017

VicePix

The last time we featured this industry was in 2013. Thus, I think it is a good time to revisit the VICE industries, especially as Tobacco season is around the corner.

On the market front, will it be May that finally sends the market into its long overdue correction? Or will it not sell off again and make 2018 more treacherous?

Whichever way the market turns, the economy is already ahead of that curve as more weakness unveils all over the world. You cannot go through a day without reading at least three articles with regard to slowing data, contracting numbers and worrying unemployment rates.

The longer the market puts off the correction, the longer the pain will drag out.

Get the full report here: http://www.patterntrader.com/product/sector-report-1704-vice-2017/

Share
Comments Off on April 2017 Review, May Preview

April 2017 Review, May Preview

It has been quite a month as things start to wind up and chapters comes to a close as I near the end of my journey with Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group (AKLTG) in Singapore.

I also laid to rest, the memory of my Step-Mother who finally found rest on Wednesday 26 April after years of suffering.

TUTORIAL MATTERS

On 5 April, I did my very last Preview for the Tutorial with AKLTG and it was quite a turnout.

17504530_10155114499883665_3822934093221632409_o

On 10 April, in Kuala Lumpur, I did my last Candlestick and Breakout Patterns Workshop with AKLTG MY. That too, was a full house.

17883759_10155131037693665_8351375883277196638_n

Then for eight days on 20 to 24 and 28 to 30 April, PTT89 became the final Tutorial batch under AKLTG’s roof. It was rather emotional at the end but the students had a wonderful time and now begin the long arduous journey of their new financial lives.

18208978_10155195278088665_1786272295829723691_o17952818_10155168484703665_7346215222311981702_n18209365_10155195278098665_58879788947566332_o

And many thanks to the two people who have made the final year in AKLTG a most happening year in my ten years there, Joey and Lawrence. Thanks for the hard work and belief. I will miss you both.

17523677_10155113986543665_5206243788028150676_n

Next up … the closing chapters in Kuala Lumpur in May.

MARKET UPDATE

INDU

Earnings haven’t been bad at all at the start of this earnings season with the S&P 500 earnings per share growth on track for an increase of more than 12 percent for the first quarter, the greatest since the third quarter of 2011.

Weakness in the U.S. dollar and stabilizing oil prices have contributed in improving earnings and overseas economic growth. The dollar traded lower for most of this year after sharp gains in 2014 and 2015 that cut into overseas profits while crude recovered from a sub-$30 a barrel low last February to trade in a range near $50 a barrel. U.S. crude is up about 7 percent over the last 12 months.

The final week of the month saved an otherwise dour month as the major indices spiked in the final week to yield more than 6% year-to-date;

Screen Shot 2017-05-01 at 10.12.08 PMAlthough the US economy grew at an annualized 0.7 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2017, following a 2.1 percent expansion in the previous period, it was disappointingly below expectations of 1.1 percent. The deceleration in real GDP was mostly a result of weak consumption due to lower auto sales and home-heating bills which offset a pickup in investment in housing and oil drilling and rise in exports.

Screen Shot 2017-05-01 at 8.19.23 PM

The Transports ($TRAN/$DJT), however, are not painting such a rosy picture as it barely avoided falling into the red for the year. They closed out the month below 2016’s open and continue to show weakness in spite of the dovish nature of the other benchmarks.

This divergence and the complacently low level of the VIX (10.36 as of Thursday’s close) seem all the more ominous as we head into the usually treacherous month of May.

May Preview

May 2017 has 22 trading sessions and one public holiday. May is notorious for having the year’s most fearsome correction. Some Mays in years past (most recently in 2012) are known to wipe out the whole year’s gain in a single month. May starts well but almost immediately goes into one of the most bearish weeks on the trading calendar.

However, if May doesn’t sell off, it is often seen as an omen for the following year which tends to be flat, volatile and/or negative. Such was the case when May 2014 didn’t sell off which resulted in 2015 ending flat after a very flat first eight months and three following months of extreme volatility. Similar occurrences were noted in 2003-2004, 2007-2008, 2009-2010.

For your information, May 2016 didn’t sell off either.

DIA
May Trivia

Key Economic Date

Mon 01 MaySPY

Tue 02 May

Wed 03 May

Thu 04 May

Fri 05 May

Sun 07 May

Tue 09 May

Thu 11 May

Fri 12 May

Sun 14 May

Mon 15 May

Tue 16 May

Wed 17 May

Thu 18 May

Tue 23 May

Wed 24 May

Thu 25 May

Fri 26 May

Mon 29 May

Tue 30 May

Wed 31 May

Commodities

SUMMARY

Will it be May that finally sends the market into its long overdue correction? Or will it not sell off again and make 2018 more treacherous?

Whichever way the market turns, the economy is already ahead of that curve as more weakness unveils all over the world. You cannot go through a day without reading at least three articles with regard to slowing data, contracting numbers and worrying unemployment rates.

The longer the market puts off the correction, the longer the pain will drag out.

Share
Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 24 April 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 24 April 2017 BMO

Screen Shot 2017-04-22 at 9.19.19 PM

After closing last week with three consecutive losses, the stock market returned to its winning ways on Monday. The financial sector had a hand in the bullish bias, shooting 1.6% higher, after shrugging off solid earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) the session before.

However, financials left investors scratching their heads, yet again, on Tuesday and Wednesday after a pair of upbeat earnings reports from Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) sent the financial sector back towards its flat line for the week. To be fair, Goldman Sachs (GS) did disappoint with misses on top and bottom lines, however, the lone report did little to change the overall tone of the earnings season, which has been mostly positive for financials.

The focus on the financial group stems from its leadership in the stock market’s post-election rally, a period in which the sector grew by 26.0%. Since then, the showing from the financial space has been closely mimicked by the broader market, which has used the sector’s performance to navigate the recent waters of uncertainty.

That’s not to say the financial sector deserves all the blame for the equity market’s mid-week slump. Crude oil was a guilty party on Wednesday, dropping 3.6%, after the EIA reported a smaller than expected draw in U.S. crude inventories. In addition, angst on the geopolitical front, especially in regards to the French presidential election, lingered throughout the week.

On Thursday, investors shifted their attention to Washington amid reports that the Freedom Caucus, the group credited with blocking the GOP’s first attempt at health care reform, is now on the same page with the moderate wing of the House GOP. Progress on health care reform has been elusive, but it would be a positive for investors as it should clear the way for more comprehensive tax reform. As a result, the S&P 500 broke its two-session losing streak to close higher by 0.8%.

The first round of the French presidential election, which will narrow the race to two candidates, kept the bulls at bay on Friday. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, both of which have expressed interest in France leaving the European Union, are two of the top four hopefuls vying for the final round, giving some investors angst regarding the future of the single market. French citizens will take to the polls on Sunday.

After all was said and done, the S&P 500 closed the week higher by 0.9%. However, the up-and-down action led to a dip in rate hike expectations; the fed funds futures market points to a 48.5% implied probability of a June rate hike, down from last week’s 57.3%. Market participants now point to July as the most likely time for the Fed to announce the next rate hike with an implied probability of 53.6%.

(Excerpts from Briefing.com)

Bonds yields continued their slide from the previous week with the shorter maturities falling more than the longer maturities to steepen the curve. This could suggest a flight to short term safety as investors looked to the shorter maturities as a hedge against the coming month of May and weak earnings after the poor showing from the financial in the past week.

Commodities; Crude closes below $50p/b for the week.

Agriculture:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Screen Shot 2017-04-22 at 9.34.39 PMTHE WEEK AHEAD

Monday 24 to Friday 28 April (Week 17)

The seventeenth week of 2017 (wk17) is bullish for the DIA and SPY with an average 70% over the 5, 10 and 15 year averages.

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the week are bearish at the start, bullish midweek and bearish at the end of the week:

Screen Shot 2017-04-22 at 9.49.13 PM

Key Economic Dates

Mon 24 Apr

Tue 25 Apr

Wed 26 Apr

Thu 27 Apr

Fri 28 Apr

Key Earnings Announcements

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SUMMARY

Earnings Season heats up this week with no less than a dozen DOW components on the line. The big name industrials are also announcing their results which could provide some insights into whether this industrial purple patch will continue the run up the charts in the coming quarter.

The week after this (wk 18) is typically bearish as we kick off the month of May, notorious for having the worst sell-off of any month. Be mindful of your bullish positions as we head into the end of the week.

Share