Comments Off on July 2017 In Review, August Preview

July 2017 In Review, August Preview


July 2017 is going to be a month I am not likely to forget for a very long time. So many things happened so quickly that the month went by so fast leaving only these wonderful memories on which I will build a future on.

I started the month in Kuala Lumpur with a Gathering amongst my MY Graduates on Friday 30th June. It would be the last Gathering in KL under AKLTG’s roof. That was followed by a weekend of Futures & Commodities with a very enthusiastic bunch of traders. I love these workshops where we really get into the hands-on nitty-gritties rather than have lectures and lessons. Nothing beats getting your hands dirty to get the actual experience.


Then came a series of talks at various financial institutions to address their Remisiers, Traders, Dealers and Fund Managers. I used these session to impress upon these professionals the significance of macroeconomics in their analyses and positioning. For the most part, the concept was warmly received and already, I am getting call backs for follow-up sessions.

Wednesday 5 July, UOB Kay Hian …


Friday 7 July, RHB …

RHB0319575046_10155424956163665_2648114846336744774_o 19800773_10155424956378665_492478781022609409_o

Wednesday 19 July, CIMB …

KayHian01 KayHian02 KayHian03

Friday 21 July, DBS Vickers …

Vickers02 Vickers03 Vickers04

Tuesday 25 July, OCBC Securities …


Thursday 27 and Friday 28 July, Phillip Securities …

Phillip00 Phillip01 Phillip04

These sessions would not have been possible if not for the faith and belief of Jamie Chung from Macquarie Capital Securities. Thanks, Jamie! Now let’s really make this work!!

Jamie01 Jamie02


On Friday 14 July, I fulfilled my final commitment to Adam Khoo Learning Technologies Group by hosting the last PTT Graduates Gathering under their umbrella. It was a really special moment for me after ten years with them. Almost 300 Graduates attended this event at Lifelone Learning Institute at which, Patrick Cheo, CEO of AKLTG made a fitting testimonial to our ten-year relationship.

Thank you to everyone who turned up to lend your support. It has been an amazing ten years. Now let’s look forward to the next decade as the Pattern Trader Tutorial makes its next evolution!


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It was also great to have a really good bunch of old friends (all first year graduates from 2007) get together for a memorable picture ten years after getting to know each other. Lawrence, Phoebe, Alicia and Ruben … thanks for a decade of friendship!

Oldfriends01 Oldfriends02

On 24th July, FinancialScents hosted its first Pattern Trader Coaching Tutelage for Graduates. This is the follow up to the Tutorial where Graduates get their hands dirty with the hands-on experience of doing the research, planning and execution of everything they learnt in Tutorial.


Moving Forward …

In between all these engagements, there were countless meetings, counselling sessions, consultations, the on-going process of the production of the Financial$ website and the design and production of my various apps and tools for the site.

With so much happening at such a frenetic pace, this has been the most exciting time of my teaching career as I move away from the seminar business and focus on the financial education business where I have always wanted to be.

(Yes, there is a HUGE difference between running a seminar business and being in the education business. While one is all about converting masses into paid seats, the other is about converting ignorance into literacy. While one spends the majority of their time, effort and resources on advertising, marketing and sales, the other puts much time, effort and resources into teaching, supporting and mentoring. Yes, indeed … it is a huge difference.)

I will still maintain a presence in the seminar market but it will be at a drastically reduced pace only to meet the needs of those who request for the Tutorial. The Pattern Trader Tutorial will become more exclusive in the years to come as it only caters to those who are dead serious about their money, their total financial literacy and their long-term future. For those who wish to get-rich-quick, attain financial freedom and become millionaires without effort, I strongly recommend that you look elsewhere for your education. I honestly don’t know how to teach you that.

I am in the business of educating and I educate those who want to learn. I shouldn’t have to convince you about how important it is and why you need it. You shouldn’t have to ask why it is necessary to take a complete and holistic approach to learning everything regarding your finances and the economic factors that will affect your wealth. I shouldn’t have to teach you the importance of not being complacent and ignorant. If I have to influence you into accepting all that has been mentioned in this paragraph, I strongly recommend that you look elsewhere for your education because you’re obviously not serious enough about your financial future.

It has been 17 years since I became bankrupt as a result of my financial ignorance and naiveté. It has been 10 years since I was discharged from that financial prison. I still wear the scars of my stupidity and my family will never forget the nightmare we went through. I still fear the possibility of history repeating itself. Thus, I continue to educate myself in the ever-growing, ever-evolving world of finance and economics so that I take nothing for granted.

And for the like-minded, I will continue to teach them and grow with them. This is my job because it is my #1 Passion.


It is obvious that the US Equity Market is overbought and clearly in a bubble especially amongst the Tech and Housing issues. According to the Case Shiller P/E, the two sectors are way value at 33.60 and 48.70 respectively.

Shiller Weights

The other point to take note of is the weightage of the Tech Sector as shown by the pie chart from WSJ.


From this chart, you will see that the threat of the housing bubble is not really significant as its weightage on the S&P500 is really close to nothing at 2.86% of the S&P500. The Tech Sector however, is a huge monster at 23.03%. With its valuations already in bubble territory, it becomes rather obvious where to look for signs of this bubble bursting.

The months of August and September might give us that chance for a dip. The have been the market’s most bearish consecutive months of the trading calendar for three decades now. With stats like that, it would be wise to be cautious going forward.

$DJI Weekly Stats for August 2017

$DJI Weekly Stats for August 2017

$SPX Weekly Stats for August 2017

$SPX Weekly Stats for August 2017

August Preview

August has been the most bearish in the last three decades with no reliable patterns. It is the first of two consecutive months of bearishness going into September, the most bearish month of the year over the last 80-plus years. Since 1987, August has been the worst month on the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ.

August 2017 is the longest trading month of the year with 23 full trading sessions and no public holidays.

August Trivia

Key Economic Dates For August 2017

Mon 31 Jul

Tue 01 Aug

Wed 02 Aug

Thu 03 Aug

Fri 04 Aug

Mon 07 Aug

Tue 08 Aug

Wed 09 Aug

Thu 10 Aug

Fri 11 Aug

Sun 13  Aug

Mon 14 Aug

Tue 15 Aug

Wed 16 Aug

Thu 17 Aug

Mon 21 Aug

Tue 22 Aug

Wed 23 Aug

Thu 24 Aug

Fri 25 Aug

Sat 26 Aug

Mon 28 Aug

Tue 29 Aug

Wed 30 Aug

Thu 31 Aug

Fri 01 Sep



On many occasions during my round of talks, I have been asked if and when a market crash is due. I am obviously not a fortune teller so I can’t possibly know.

But I am of the opinion that the market should make a correction and the coming two months are the perfect opportunity for that. It isn’t likely to be a market crash situation. It could possibly be a 10% to 15% correction in a best case scenario and a 30% correction if the sell-off extends into the end of September.

What I fear is a deep and long-term slowdown not unlike the 70’s. The markets are likely stay buoyant but the economy will take the brunt of the slowdown with high unemployment in an extremely tight job market, low or even negative inflation levels, slow growth or even negative contractions in growth, manufacturing and services, extremely conservative consumer spending and possibly even a liquidity crisis.

In short, the market will be little affected but the street will suffer for it.

Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 31 July 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 31 July 2017 BMO

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Investors had a massive pile of earnings reports to work through this week. The results were generally positive, but equities still sold off in some instances as many companies rallied for several weeks in front of their reports, pricing in much of the good news beforehand. The S&P 500 finished the week just a tick below its flat line, the Nasdaq dropped 0.2%, and the Dow outperformed, climbing 1.2%.

The stock market began the week with a rather range-bound performance on Monday as small victories from the top-weighted technology and financials sectors roughly canceled out losses from the nine remaining groups. Alphabet (GOOGL) helped carry the tech space, muscling one more win ahead of its earnings report, which crossed the wires on Monday evening.

Alphabet reported better than expected earnings and revenues, but slid 2.9% on Tuesday nonetheless. In general, earnings continued to eclipse expectations on Tuesday with Caterpillar (CAT), McDonald’s (MCD), DuPont (DD), and United Technologies (UTX) all beating earnings per share estimates. The positive results helped push the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to modest victories and new record highs.

The Dow joined the record-high club in the midweek session, outpacing its peers on the back of Boeing (BA). The airplane maker surged 9.9% after reporting better than expected earnings and raising its earnings guidance for the fiscal year. Wireless giant AT&T (T) also moved solidly higher, adding 5.0%, following its latest quarterly report, which showed above-consensus earnings.

Investors took a break, albeit a short one, from earnings season on Wednesday afternoon when the Fed released its latest policy directive. However, the release largely turned out to be a nonevent. The FOMC decided to keep the fed funds target range at 1.00%-1.25%, as expected, and noted that it expects to begin paring its balance sheet “relatively soon”, which was interpreted by many to mean September.

Earnings came back into focus on Thursday with Facebook (FB) headlining the lineup. The social media giant jumped to a new record high after reporting better than expected earnings and revenues, however, the company gave back a good portion of said advance as tech stocks began to sell off in the afternoon, pushing the technology sector to the bottom of the leaderboard.

Transports struggled mightily on Thursday, sending the Dow Jones Transportation Average lower by 3.1%. The DJTA’s weakness was broad, but UPS (UPS) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) exhibited particular weakness despite beating earnings estimates. However, on a positive note, Verizon (VZ) surged 7.7% on better than expected revenues. Equity indices settled mixed with the S&P 500 losing 0.1%.

Moving into Friday’s session, investor sentiment was down mildly after Amazon(AMZN) reported worse than expected earnings on Thursday evening. The e-commerce giant dropped 2.5%, but the broader market held up relatively well with the Dow settling at another record high, its third in a row. Also of note, the advance estimate of Q2 GDP came in slightly below expectations (2.6% actual vs 2.8% consensus).

Following this week’s policy directive, the fed funds futures market now points to the January FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 50.8%. At this time last week, investors were anticipating the next rate hike to occur in December.

Equity indices finished Friday’s session mixed; the Dow (+0.2%) advanced to a new record high for the third day in a row while the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and the Nasdaq (-0.1%) settled a tick below their unchanged marks. All three major averages finished near their best marks of the day. For the week, the S&P 500 finished flat.

(Excerpts from

Currencies: Dollar and Swissy Decline After Ugly Week

Bonds yields: The yield curve steepened for the week in spite of a disappointing US GDP report for the second quarter. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate in real terms during the second quarter, short of the consensus for a 2.8% SAAR.

Commodities: Crude gains $4, Metals gain for another week. Total U.S. rig count increased by 8 to 958 after a decline of 2 last week.

Agriculture: Grains closed lower after topping out last week.



August begins … and with it usually come the bears.

Monday 31 July to Friday 04 August (Week 31)

On the Pattern Trader Seasonal Scanner, the thirty-first week of 2017 (wk31) has very low statistical reliability that generally implies that it can either be very flat or extremely volatile for the SPY and DIA.

DIAweek31 SPYweek31

Our daily models over 5, 10 and 15 year averages reveal similar statistics to the Stock Trader’s Almanac in that it is likely to be a volatile week that will rock and roll up and down with the statistics favouring the bears.

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the benchmark indices (based on 21 years) for week 31;

Screen Shot 2017-07-30 at 11.55.29 PM

Earnings Calendar for the week of July 24th

Mon 31 July

Tue 01 August

Wed 02 August

Thu 03 August

Fri 04 August

Key Economic Dates

Mon 31 Jul

Tue 01 Aug

Wed 02 Aug

Thu 03 Aug

Fri 04 Aug


Earnings Season heats up this week with a deluge of companies on earnings call especially mid-week. The volatility stakes will rise and expect more rock and rolls as earnings continue to test this market’s bullish persistence.

Happy Hunting!

Comments Off on How To Avoid Getting “Scammed”?

How To Avoid Getting “Scammed”? be fair, not all scams started with the intention to scam. Its just that the business model was not properly thought through and it ended up looking like a scam.
Can you blame the victims? I don’t think they all fell for greed or were conned through ignorance and gullibility. If the scheme was indeed above board, then at the time of sale, it was a good idea. But for the poor planning and management of the scheme, it ended badly. No one could have seen it coming because the owners of the scheme probably didn’t expect it to end badly either.
Now, I don’t know the full picture of this “scam” so I won’t judge.
All I will say is that if you’re planning to invest in anything, you have the duty of researching it thoroughly and asking for professional advice if you don’t know what you’re getting into.
Did you read the prospectus thoroughly?
The worst you can do is to buy something you know little or anything about by falling for the tactics and guile of well trained sales people who know how to hook you and sell ice to Eskimos.
Take your time to decide. Rushing in is the worst thing any investor can do. That’s pure greed. Sleep on it and mull over it for a couple of days. Ask around. Check out the web.
But it was certified and sanctioned …
There will always be such schemes now and in the future. They all look credible and will be sanctioned by such and such governments or institutions. But remember the governments and institutions can also be victims.
The best is to study the business model and anticipate the worst case scenario. If the investment can wipe out in a worst case scenario, that is not a good investment. If it says “capital guaranteed”, then thoroughly read the fine print because no smart business person will ever guarantee anything – that’s the first sign of a scam; blind guarantees.
There should always be an exit ticket. If your commitment doesn’t not allow a clean exit at your own discretion and time, it is a scam. Time based investment always have exit tickets that will penalise you for breaking the time agreement. That’s actually a good thing. So if there is no exit ticket and no penalty, it is definitely a scam to lock in your money or cash flow to assure the Ponzi scheme can continue its vicious cycle.
In short, if you don’t know what you’re doing, don’t do anything. If you’re going to commit, learn everything.
Your friendly financial advisor,
Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 24 July 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 24 July 2017 BMO

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Equities kept chugging along this week, underpinned by a generally solid batch of earnings reports and the notion that monetary policy will remain accommodative for the foreseeable future. The S&P 500 ended the week higher for the third-consecutive time, adding 0.5%, but the real star was the Nasdaq, which climbed 1.2% and settled at a new record high for three sessions in a row. The Dow lagged this week, finishing with a small loss of 0.3%.

The stock market kicked off the week with a rather uneventful performance on Monday that left the major averages little changed. However, activity picked up on Tuesday as the Nasdaq climbed to a new record high for the first time since June 8. Netflix (NFLX) headlined the earnings front, surging 13.5%, after adding a surprisingly-large number of new subscribers in the second quarter.

Buyers were in the driver’s seat during the midweek session, pushing the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the small-cap Russell 2000 to new all-time highs. Each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors finished in the green with the energy group setting the pace following an upbeat EIA crude inventory report. Conversely, financials and transports struggled once again, shrugging off some relatively upbeat earnings reports.

However, it’s important to note that the S&P 500’s financial sector and the Dow Jones Transportation Average both had bullish, multi-week runs ahead of earnings season, making it difficult for their components to advance on upbeat results alone.

On Thursday, monetary policy was the focal point as investors digested the latest policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. Both central banks decided to leave interest rates unchanged and sounded dovish about future accommodation. However, the euro rallied against the U.S. dollar nonetheless as ECB President Mario Draghi failed to dispel the notion that the ECB might soon announce a tapering of its asset purchase program.

The Nasdaq eked out another record close, extending its winning streak to ten sessions in a row, while the S&P 500 and the Dow finished just shy of their unchanged marks. The telecom services sector was the top-performing group–which has been a rarity this year–following an upbeat earnings report from T-Mobile US (TMUS). However, ironically, TMUS shares finished solidly lower.

Equity indices ended the week with small losses on Friday. General Electric (GE) weighed on the industrial sector, dropping 2.9%, after reporting disappointing organic revenue growth for its industrial segment. Microsoft (MSFT) also faced selling pressure as its better than expected earnings and revenues failed to fully justify its preceding ten-day rally. Energy was the worst-performing sector following news of increased OPEC production, which sent crude oil on a 2.7% plunge.

The fed funds futures market still points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 52.0%, up slightly from last week’s 50.6%. The Fed will release its latest policy statement on Wednesday afternoon at 14:00 ET.

(Excerpts from

Currencies: Euro strengthens ahead of next week’s PMI reports

Bonds yields: The yield curve fell further following last week’s losses to flatten considerable. Spreads across the yields have now tightened to 57bps on the 10/30, 43bps on the 5/10 and 46bps on the 2/5.

Commodities: Crude loses, Metals gain. The Baker Hughes total rig count decreased by 2 to 950 after no change last week

Agriculture: Grains closed mixed after a week of gains.



More volatility ahead as earnings season goes into its peak. No less than 13 DOW components are on the line this week

Monday 24 July to Friday 28 July (Week 30)

The thirtieth week of 2017 (wk30) looks flat and uneventful with less than 50% reliability on the DIA and an average of 50% on the SPY. However, expect a lot of volatility within the week as the daily gyrations are expected to whipsaw the market.

Our daily models over 5, 10 and 15 year averages show the DIA as bearish all weekSPY is expected to be bearish on Monday and Tuesday, bullish on Wednesday and Thursday and unpredictable on Friday.

Screen Shot 2017-07-22 at 2.50.40 PM Screen Shot 2017-07-22 at 2.51.09 PM

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the benchmark indices (based on 21 years) for week 30;

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Earnings Calendar for the week of July 24th

Mon 24 July

Tue 25 July

Wed 26 July

Thu 27 July

Fri 28 July

Key Economic Dates

Mon 24 July

Tue 25 July

Wed 26 July

Thu 27 July

Fri 28 July


So the doubters continued to get shamed by this market that doesn’t want to come down. Well, August and September are just around the corner and they may get their wish … eventually. But until then, there’s so stopping this bull run. Unless of course, the GDP number come out with a stunningly negative surprise along with a surprise move by the Fed on Wednesday.

Happy Hunting!



The Pattern Trader™ Tutorial will be having its second Preview for the August Batch on 27 July. Don’t miss out on this educational three-hour session by registering here: July 27, 2017 Preview Session

Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 17 July 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 17 July 2017 BMO

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S&P 500, Dow Advance to New All-Time Highs

The stock market closed the week on a positive note with the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and the Dow (+0.4%) both advancing to new record highs. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq climbed 0.6% and finished just nine points below its record close. For the week, the S&P 500 moved higher by 1.4%, which marks its best weekly performance since the end of May.

The stock market got off to a slow start this week, but Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semiannual testimony before Congress sparked a rally in the midweek session that lingered all the way into Friday’s closing bell. In the end, the S&P 500 registered its largest weekly gain since the end of May and settled Friday’s session at a new record close. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 1.4%.

For the most part, the first two sessions of the week were uneventful. The stock market did make a sharp move lower on Tuesday after Donald Trump Jr. tweeted an email exchange that involved him setting up a meeting with a Russian lawyer in an attempt to gain some possibly incriminating information on then-presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. However, the bearish sentiment didn’t last and the S&P 500 entered Wednesday’s session flat for the week.

Equities rallied in the midweek session after Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy testimony came off less hawkish than many were anticipating. One of the key takeaways from Ms. Yellen’s prepared remarks was her acknowledgment that “the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance.” The statement created a sense that the Fed may in fact follow a shorter path of rate hikes that will keep the longer-run neutral level of the federal funds rate below levels that prevailed in previous decades.

The S&P 500 leaned on its most influential sectors, namely technology and financials, to capture its third win of the week on Thursday. The financial sector’s positive performance was particularly notable as the group plays an important role in driving economic activity and had failed to keep pace with the broader market in the three prior sessions. Financials remained a focal point once again on Friday with JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) headlining the earnings front.

All three of the aforementioned banks reported better than expected earnings–with JPM and C also beating revenue estimates–but the results were just not enough, at least in the market’s mind, to justify the bullish six-week run that JPM, WFC, and C rode into Friday’s session. The financial sector settled in the red, losing 0.5%, but the S&P 500 managed to advance to a new all-time high thanks to gains from ten of its eleven sectors.

In addition to earnings, economic data was also a focal point on Friday as below-consensus retail sales and core CPI readings for the month of June prompted a rally in the Treasury market; the benchmark 10-yr yield, which moves inversely to the price of the 10-yr Treasury note, dropped three basis points to 2.32%, ending the week with a seven-basis point loss.

Like Treasury yields, rate-hike expectations were also dialed back a bit this week. However, the fed funds futures market still points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 50.6%. This time last week, the implied probability of a December rate hike sat at 59.1%.

(Excerpts from

Reviewing Friday’s big batch of economic data, which included June CPI, June Retail Sales, the June Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report, May Business Inventories, and the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July:

Currencies: Dollar Index nears Bear-Market Territory on Weak Data

Bonds yields: Yield curve falls after two weeks of gains with the belly of the curve taking the biggest loss.

Commodities: Crude, Metals rise 

Agriculture: Grains fall after two weeks of gains.



Expect an uneventful week ahead as Q2 Earnings Season goes into its second week.

Monday 17 July to Friday 21 July (Week 29)

The twenty-ninth week of 2017 (wk29) is flat-to-bullish for the DIA and the SPY over all the 5, 10 and 15 year averages with less than 60% average reliability.

Our weekly models over 5, 10 and 15 year averages show the DIA as mildly bearish throughout the week with a very bullish TuesdaySPY is expected to be unpredictable throughout the week with a unreliable statistics.

Screen Shot 2017-07-12 at 2.26.40 PM Screen Shot 2017-07-12 at 2.26.58 PM 

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the benchmark indices (based on 21 years) for week 29;

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Earnings Calendar for the week of July 17th

Mon 17 July

Tue 18 July

Wed 19 July

Thu 20 July

Fri 21 July

Key Economic Dates

Sun 16 July

Mon 17 July

Tue 18 July

Wed 19 July

Thu 20 July

Fri 21 July


Apparently, Singapore barely avoided a recession by reporting a 0.4% expansion in growth for the the second quarter of 2017 over the previous quarter. The number was most derived from “robust growth in its electronics and precision engineering industries due to strong global demand for semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.”

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I find that hard to swallow because every time our growth is expected to make consecutive negative contractions, some vague white knight manages to help the number to barely scrape by or form some anomaly that’s obviously unsustainable. Although manufacturing has been a consistent contributor to the growth number for the last 10 months, the sector has not played a huge part in the island state’s growth story for the past two decades as compared to services, import/export and various other infrastructure based businesses. It seems convenient that it now plays a huge part in the country’s growth.

You can delay the inevitable but the street already knows what the numbers don’t say – jobs are getting tighter, salaries are getting squeezed, spending is stagnant if not falling and property prices have been falling for 15 quarters.

Screen Shot 2017-07-16 at 2.21.34 PM

The bright side is that analysts are optimistic that this will spur growth in the services sector. With the next Monetary Policy Meeting due in October, analysts are confident that the central bank (MAS) will hold policy steady.

Happy Hunting!



The Pattern Trader™ Tutorial will be having its second Preview for the August Batch on 27 July. Don’t miss out on this educational three-hour session by registering here: July 27, 2017 Preview Session

Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 10 July 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 10 July 2017 BMO



The Pattern Trader Tutorial will be having its second Preview for the August Batch on 27 July. Don’t miss out on this educational three-hour session by registering here: July 27, 2017 Preview Session

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Modest Gains For The Week, Russells Unchanged

Equity indices kicked off the third quarter on a positive note, finishing the first week of July with modest gains. Trading volume was light as many investors took some extra time off to celebrate the Fourth of July holiday. The S&P 500 added 0.1% while the Nasdaq and the Dow finished with gains of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

The major averages settled mixed in an abbreviated session on Monday. The financials and energy sectors were bullish, finishing at the top of the day’s leaderboard, and helped the S&P 500 overcome the top-weighted technology sector’s third-consecutive loss. The tech-heavy Nasdaq wasn’t so lucky, dropping 0.5%, while the Dow outperformed, hitting a new intraday record high.

U.S. markets were closed on Tuesday in observance of the Fourth of July holiday, but the benchmark index picked up where it left off in the midweek session, registering another modest win with the technology group leading the charge. The minutes from the June 13-14 FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday, but did little to change the market’s rate-hike expectations.

In the minutes, Fed members seemed generally upbeat about economic activity and gave the impression that they believe the recent softness in inflation is transitory. In addition, Fed officials were divided on when to start unwinding the Fed’s balance sheet; some wanted to start in a couple of months while others preferred to hold off until the end of the year.

Investors pulled back on Thursday, dragging all three major averages into negative territory for the week and leaving the S&P 500 below its 50-day simple moving average for the first time in nearly two months. The market expressed concerns about less accommodative central bankers, evidenced by rising interest rates around the globe. U.S. Treasuries moved in a curve-steepening trade, helping to keep the influential financial sector ahead of the broader market.

The Employment Situation Report for the month of June, which showed the addition of 222,000 nonfarm payrolls ( consensus 173,000) and stable hourly earnings (+0.2% vs consensus +0.3%), was the focus of Friday’s session. The report was largely seen as another ‘Goldilocks’ report, pointing to an economy that is growing at a modest rate without the worry of inflation.

Eight of the S&P 500’s eleven sectors ended Friday in the green, which was just enough to bring the benchmark index back into positive territory for the week. The technology group was the top-performing sector, benefiting from broad strength. However, the energy group underperformed as crude oil weighed.

WTI crude futures struggled this week, dropping 4.1%, following news that OPEC exports increased in the month of June and headlines that Russia is not in favor of deepening the current OPEC-led production cut agreement. In addition, the weekly inventory report from the Department of Energy, which showed a rise in U.S. production alongside a larger than expected drop in crude and gasoline stockpiles, also prompted selling pressure.

The fed funds futures market still points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 59.1%, up from last week’s 54.4%.

(Excerpts from

Non-Farm Payrolls Report

GDP Estimates

Currencies: Dollar Rallies as Jobs Growth Exceeds Expectations

Bonds yields: Yield curve steepens for the second week

Commodities: Crude rises while Metals fall 

Agriculture: Grains gain for the second week.



Looks like the bulls may get back into the game after the shortened week to kick start earnings season.

Monday 10 July to Friday 14 July (Week 28)

The twenty-eighth week of 2017 (wk28) is bullish for the DIA and the SPY over all the 5, 10 and 15 year averages with around 80% average reliability.

Our weekly models over 5, 10 and 15 year averages show the DOW and SPY as bullish throughout the week with slight bearishness on Tuesday.

Screen Shot 2017-07-06 at 4.05.47 PM Screen Shot 2017-07-06 at 4.06.08 PM 

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the benchmark indices (based on 21 years) for week 28;

Screen Shot 2017-07-06 at 4.30.24 PM

Key Economic Dates

Sun 09 July

Mon 10 July

Wed 12 July

Thu 13 July

Fri 14 July


It will be nice to get back into a smooth rally but for the start of earnings season. I don’t expect a lot of speed bumps after Friday’s dovish employment numbers and on the back of such historically bullish statistics, it is definitely not in my plans to be short.

Happy Hunting!

Comments Off on June 2017 In Review, July Preview

June 2017 In Review, July Preview

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June was a weird month for me mostly because my household was missing one person who had gone off to serve his nation. It’s so strange not having him around and I do miss my gym and swim buddy.

Other than that, the Pattern Trader did its first independent Previews in Singapore (June 20th) and Penang (June 22nd).

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The turn out was encouraging and sustainable given that I intend to slow down the frequency of the Tutorials with this independence to focus on other things.

If you missed this session in Singapore, consider coming for the second Introductory Preview Session where you will get answers to all your queries regarding attending the tutorial. Register here: PATTERN TRADER INTRODUCTORY SESSION


PTT10thCoverThe Tutorial’s 10th Edition Notes were also completed in June to cap my finest work to date. The participants will also be getting a comprehensive “Gift Pack” of tools and support goodies to help them along with their homework and assignments complete with references and work samples.

There will be more than 50 hours of Tutorials. Thereafter, graduates of the Tutorial will be given four Post Graduate Assignments to manage. Those who need extra hands-on help can get it with our Post Graduate Tutelage,  (optional for an additional S$499.00) comprising four week-night sessions of small group coaching and tuition.

Along with the most efficient syllabus to date, the Pattern Trader Tutorial is now more complete and holistic than its ever been, boasting 40 solid chapters of the smartest methodologies and defensive financial techniques along with support that no other workshop can claim to have.

Time-tested and proven over the last decade, the Pattern Trader Tutorial and its support programs are destined to become the most exclusive financial education from hereon in. This is the most complete financial syllabus that you’re not going to find anywhere else and is NOT for those who are dreaming about becoming millionaires or attaining financial freedom because this is not a get-rich-quick program. Past graduates have testified that this is more complete than most MBA programs.

It is designed for those who wish to know everything about their finances and how economics can affect their money without attending a formal education. The Tutorial gives the participant the knowledge and skills required to begin or accelerate their financial journey in the money markets, online and offline. This is material you will never find in books or other workshops because those experiences only happen to the REAL MACROTRADERS who know how the market works, how the floor operates and how the institutions make it their killing field.

For a full run-down on the Tutorial and its support programs, please look here: The Complete Pattern Trader Tutorial

PTT 10th 2018Syllabus


Please consider coming for the Introductory Preview Session where you will get answers to all your queries regarding attending the tutorial. Register here: PATTERN TRADER INTRODUCTORY SESSION

Interested parties can write to me at (Naysayers, crabs, haters and competitors need not apply so save yourself the time and effort and go hate someone else please.)


Its been an odd month of June and I can’t say I have a lot to talk about as it was generally quite boring. Even the Paris Air Show was a non-event for the financial markets. But things are getting very interesting on the economic fronts of Singapore, the United States and even Malaysia. China, as usual, continues to provide the disruptive element to every economy in the region and is going to be a key factor for Asian direction in Q3.

July Preview

July is the start of quarter three and is the best month in the worst quarter of the year. Having said that, it is also the most volatile month of the trading year. The three months of Q3 are extremely varied with July reputed to be the most volatile, August being the most bearish in the last 26-plus years with no reliable patterns and September, known famously for having the lowest volumes of any month and the most bearish of the calendar year over the last 86-plus years.


July 2017 has 19 full trading sessions, one shortened session (Monday, 3 July) and one public holiday (Tuesday, 4 July). July is known for its volatility with huge swings either way. It is also the start of the third earnings season of the year when companies are known to pull back on their guidance and become conservative about their outlooks.

July Trivia

Key Economic Dates

Sun 02 July

Mon 03 July

Tue 04 July

Wed 05 July

Thu 06 July

Fri 07 July

Sat 08 July

Sun 09 July

Mon 10 July

Wed 12 July

Thu 13 July

Fri 14 July

Sun 16 July

Mon 17 July

Tue 18 July

Wed 19 July

Thu 20 July

Fri 21 July

Mon 24 July

Tue 25 July

Wed 26 July

Thu 27 July

Fri 28 July

Sun 30 July

Mon 31 July



Now we go into the worst three months of the trading year with a market that’s grossly overbought, commodities that stay stubbornly under-valued and bond yields that are hugely under par. Its going to be an interesting quarter especially if my three-year outlook (from mid-2014) is to remain on track with a major correction expected in September/October.

I am personally excited that my career takes on a new path of independence to allow me to do more of what I love and to venture into new areas of businesses. It has been stressful for the last couple of months but its a good stress that I wouldn’t give up for anything less.

Stay keen, stay alert and stay safe!

Happy Hunting Always!!

Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 03 July 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 03 July 2017 BMO

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The stock market endured some volatility, which resulted in a lower finish for the major indices. Relative weakness among technology stocks sent the Nasdaq Composite down 2.0% for the week while the S&P 500 surrendered 0.6%. The price-weighed Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) ended the week little changed.

The influential financial sector opened the week on a positive note, ending its four-session losing streak with a gain of 0.5%. However, negative performances from the heavily-weighted technology and health care groups mitigated the bullish influence of financials, leaving the benchmark index just a tick above its unchanged mark. Meanwhile, crude oil registered its third-consecutive win, climbing 0.8%.

Things got a bit more interesting on Tuesday, especially in the global bond market, where sovereign yields jumped after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi provided an upbeat assessment of eurozone inflation and growth trends. The financial group outperformed, once again, amid a steepening of the yield curve, but the ten remaining sectors finished in the red with the technology group pacing the retreat.

The midweek session brought some relief as investors bought the dip and put the S&P 500 back at its flat line for the week. The financials and technology sectors led the charge, but strength was broad-based with nine sectors settling in the green. The improvement in risk sentiment came after the ECB said that Mr. Draghi’s Tuesday remarks were misinterpreted as hawkish while they were meant to strike a balance. However, longer-dated Treasuries and German bunds held their ground.

The relief rally didn’t last long as the market reversed and set a fresh low for the week on Thursday. The technology sector fell to heavy profit-taking, dropping 1.8%. Selling was broad-based with only the financials and energy spaces escaping the session with wins. Banks underpinned the financial group after the Federal Reserve approved the capital plans of all 34 banks required to partake in the annual stress test.

Thursday also saw more selling in the global bond market. Treasuries tumbled in a curve-steepening trade while German bunds slid following hotter than expected inflation data out of Germany.

Friday’s session featured a weak rebound in the broader market, as financials, health care, and technology struggled. NIKE (NKE) surged more than 10.0% after beating earnings expectations, which helped keep the market above water.

The fed funds futures market still points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 54.4%, up from last week’s 51.3%.

The stock market was on track to end Friday on its session high, but quarter-end selling during the final minutes of the action knocked the key indices off their afternoon highs. The S&P 500 added 0.2%, trimming this week’s loss to 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) underperformed, widening its weekly decline to 2.0%. Shielded from this week’s underperformance in technology, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) shed just 0.2% for the week. The S&P 500 ended the second quarter with a gain of 2.6% while Dow climbed 3.3% and Nasdaq advanced 3.9%.

(Excerpts from


The Canadian dollar jumped to a nine-month high against the dollar today as WTI crude rallied 2.05% to $45.85/bbl. While the Canadian economy faces risks from a frothy housing market and a potentially secular decline in oil prices, the greenback itself has been very weak (this was the worst quarter for the dollar since 2010) and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has signaled that a July rate hike is in play. The euro pulled back from a one-year high today although inflation ran faster than expected in the eurozone during June. Thursday’s report of higher-than-expected CPI growth in Germany may have set the market up to expect bigger things. The Swiss franc pulled back from a one-year high as well despite improvement in economic leading indicators. The Japanese yen traded near to a one-month low although the 10-year JGB yield touched its highest level since the Ides of March (0.09%). The antipodean currencies both traded higher as Chinese PMI data beat estimates. The kiwi dollar touched a four-month high. The Chinese yuan hit a seven-month high against the greenback. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.09% to 95.72

Bonds yields: The curve rose and steepened for the week

Commodities: ABCDE 

AgricultureThe USDA released two big reports today: 

 Acreage report shows:

Quarterly grain stocks report shows:

Friday’s Closing Prices:


Week27_2017 THE WEEK AHEAD

Looks like we in for a boring week if the statistics play according to history.

Monday 03 July to Friday 07 July (Week 27)

The twenty-seventh week of 2017 (wk27) is flat-to-bullish for the DIA and the SPY over all the 5, 10 and 15 year averages with less than 60% average reliability.

Our weekly models over 5, 10 and 15 year averages show the DOW and SPY as flat throughout the week with slight bullishness on Friday.


The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the benchmark indices (based on 21 years) for week 27;

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Key Economic Dates

Sun 02 July

Mon 03 July

Tue 04 July

Wed 05 July

Thu 06 July

Fri 07 July

Sat 08 July

Sun 09 July


The week before earnings is always unpredictable and rather dull. To add to the confusion, the week is also heavy with employment and manufacturing data and the G20 meetings.

Happy Hunting!

Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 26 June 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 26 June 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 26 June 2017 BMO


Wall Street ended the week on a positive note as the S&P 500 (+0.2%) cruised to a modest victory on the backs of the technology (+0.7%) and energy (+0.8%) sectors. The Nasdaq (+0.5%) and the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperformed while the Dow (unch) settled just a tick below its unchanged mark.

After some teeter tottering at the start of the week, the S&P 500 settled into a sideways trend, drifting alongside its unchanged mark, as investors lacked conviction to decisively move the market one way or the other. In the end, the benchmark index sealed its second-consecutive weekly win with a slim gain of 0.2%.

Wall Street kicked off the week on a positive note with both the S&P 500 and the Dow advancing to new all-time highs. The Nasdaq exhibited relative strength as technology and biotechnology stocks outperformed, bucking their recent bearish trends, with names like Apple (AAPL) and Biogen (BIIB) leading the charge. Financials also posted a solid performance, continuing their bullish two-week run.

The tide turned on Tuesday as the benchmark index coughed up nearly all of Monday’s advance. The energy sector finished at the bottom of the leaderboard, for the second day in a row, as crude oil continued to tumble amid excess supply concerns. However, despite the bearish tone, biotechnology stocks kept chugging along, pushing the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) higher by 1.3%.

Range-bound action set in on Wednesday as the heavily-weighted health care and technology sectors upheld the S&P 500 amid weakness in the broader market. Staying true to the week’s trend, biotech companies were bullish, advancing the IBB higher by 4.1%, while crude oil was bearish, dropping another 2.3%, despite a relatively upbeat inventory report from the Department of Energy.

Investors shifted their attention to Washington on Thursday as the Senate rolled out its version of the healthcare reform bill. Compared to the version that the House passed last month, the Senate’s version would roll back the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion more gradually, but the cuts to Medicaid would be larger in total. However, in general, the two versions of the bill are very similar.

The health care sector took the news in stride, moving higher by 1.1%, but the S&P 500 settled slightly lower as the financials, consumer staples, and utilities sectors weighed. Crude oil did manage to secure its first win of the week, but the advance was modest in comparison to the commodity’s recent swoon. Moving into Friday’s session, the energy component held a week-to-date loss of 4.5%.

Equities ended the week on a positive note as the technology and energy sectors fended off the negatively-charged financials, consumer discretionary, and health care groups. Biotech stocks fell to some profit-taking efforts early, but the IBB still managed to pull out a win, ending the week higher by 9.6%. Crude oil registered another modest win on Friday, but ended the week lower by 4.0%.

Market participants altered their rate-hike expectations a bit this week following comments from several FOMC voters, including Fed Vice Chair Fischer, Fed Governor Powell, New York Fed President Dudley, Chicago Fed President Evans, and Dallas Fed President Kaplan.

The fed funds futures market now points to the December FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 51.3%, up from last week’s 43.4%.

(Excerpts from

Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index is lower by 0.4% at 97.24, tracking a 0.2% downtick for the week after recording a slight 0.1% dip last week. This leaves the index in an area that has been well-travelled over the past five weeks.

Bonds yields: The yield curve flattened during the week, as the 2/10 spread narrowed to 81 basis points from last Friday’s 84.

Commodities: WTI Crude falters, Silver stumbles, Gold and Copper close higher. 

Agriculture: Grains all close lower for the week



A week of possible bullish reprieve ahead of earnings season.

Monday 26 June to Friday 30 June (Week 26)

The twenty-sixth week of 2017 (wk26) is bullish for the DIA and the SPY over all the 5, 10 and 15 year averages with more than 60% average reliability.

Our weekly models over 5, 10 and 15 year averages show the DOW and SPY as bearish on Monday, bullish on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday while Thursday might be a bit flat or unpredictable.

DIAweekly SPYweekly

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages for the benchmark indices (based on 21 years) for week 26;

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Key Economic Dates

Mon 26 June

Tue 27 June

Wed 28 June

Thu 29 June

Fri 30 June


One look at the three benchmarks and you have a very good idea how difficult conditions have been in the market in the past week. The divergence is broadening more and more with each passing week just as it did between June and August 2007. With Healthcare leading the sectors for four out of the five days last week, doubt seems to have crept back into risk. But Discretionary’s performance makes you wonder if the doubt has outweighed the appetite for risk yet.

Even though the week was obviously more bearish and bullish, it still closed higher that the previous Friday to give us the illusion that this is still a bull market. Let’s not take our eyes of the proverbial ball – watch the market internals and sector performances for a clearer read on the market.

Happy Hunting!

Comments Off on Weekly Market Update – 19 June 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 19 June 2017 BMO

Weekly Market Update – 19 June 2017 BMO


The stock market was fairly flat this week, especially in the second half, as investors chewed on a host of headlines, most notably of which was the FOMC’s latest rate-hike decision. The S&P 500 registered three losses and a new record high this week, eventually settling with a slim gain of 0.1%. The Dow (+0.5%) and the Nasdaq (-0.9%) settled on opposite sides of the S&P 500.

After plunging nearly 3.0% last Friday, the top-weighted technology sector registered another notable decline in the first session of the week, losing 0.8%, as mega-cap names like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Facebook (FB) weighed. Amazon (AMZN) also underperformed, but the consumer discretionary sector, like the S&P 500, was able to escape with just a slim loss.

The tide turned in the bulls’ favor on Tuesday as the aforementioned companies bounced back from their two-day declines. The technology and consumer discretionary sectors led the advance, pushing both the benchmark index and the Dow to new record highs. However, the S&P 500’s gain was capped at 0.5% as investors approached Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision with caution.

As expected, the FOMC voted to raise the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 1.00%-1.25% in the midweek session. The vote was nearly unanimous with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari being the lone dissenter. In addition, the Fed laid out a specific plan for how it will start to normalize its balance sheet and revealed that the median FOMC member expects one additional rate hike in 2017.

The Treasury market held a big gain going into the decision, underpinned by weak CPI and retail sales readings for May, but gave back a portion of that advance in the aftermath. However, in the equity market, the S&P 500 hardly deviated from its unchanged mark as investors continued to digest the Fed’s policy prescription into the closing bell and beyond.

Equity indices opened solidly lower on Thursday as the market continued to debate whether the Fed might be tightening policy too much and/or too fast. In addition, sentiment was dampened by a Washington Post report that claimed Special Counsel Mueller’s investigation of Russia’s interference in the U.S. election is broadening in scope to examine whether President Trump tried to obstruct justice.

The technology and consumer discretionary sectors showed relative weakness, yet again, on Thursday morning. However, the two groups were able to reclaim a good portion of their losses as the day went on. A positive performance from the industrial sector, which was led by names like Caterpillar (CAT), General Electric (GE), and Boeing (BA), helped keep the S&P 500’s loss (-0.2%) in check.

On Friday, Amazon (AMZN) dominated the headlines after announcing that it plans to acquire Whole Foods Market (WFM) for $42 per share in cash. Big-box retailers like Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), and Target (TGT) plunged on the news, sending the consumer staples sector to the bottom of the day’s leaderboard. However, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out a slim victory.

It’s also worth pointing out that WTI crude settled the week with a loss of 2.4% following a bearish EIA inventory report on Wednesday, which showed a smaller than expected draw of 1.7 million barrels (consensus -2.5 million barrels) in crude stocks and a build of 2.1 million barrels in gasoline inventories for the week ended May 9. The tumble left the commodity at its worst level since early November.

Despite the Fed’s call for a third rate hike in 2017, the fed funds futures market points to the March 2018 FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the next rate-hike announcement with an implied probability of 50.8%, down from last week’s 60.7%. The implied probability of a December rate hike sits at 43.4%, down from last week’s 51.7%.

(Excerpts from


Bonds yields: The yield curve flattened dramatically over the week as the longer maturities saw a flight to safety.

Commodities: WTI Crude closes higher, Metals close lower. 




Looks like a bearish week ahead and with plenty of reasons to be.

Monday 19 June to Friday 23 June (Week 25)

The twenty-fifth week of 2017 (wk25) is bearish for the DIA and the SPY over all the 5, 10 and 15 year averages with more than 80% reliability. 

The 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac’s averages (based on 21 years) for week 25;

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Key Economic Dates

Mon 19 June

Tue 20 June

Wed 21 June

Thu 22 June

Fri 23 June


With such bearish statistics for the coming week, the long trade is definitely out of the question. However, it will only be for a week as the last week of June often sees bullish spikes as a result of the Portfolio Pumping phenomenon.

On the economic front, The Little Red Dot will be anticipating some sort of fall out from THAT Family dispute that has inadvertently dragged some big named ministers into the fray. The boss gets back to work on Monday so watch the SGD for the first signs of any fall out. This is not just going to be a family issue – the economic fall out if this thing if not handled properly, can have serious long-term ramifications with regard to investor confidence knowing that a ministerial committee can be convened at any time to take away your most basic human or even corporate rights without due process.

I am praying that those in power do the right thing for the greater good rather than personal gain or pride.

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And don’t forget:


I will be hosting my very first independent Preview Session for the Pattern Trader (Singapore) Tutorial’s upcoming batch in August:

Date: Tuesday, 20 June 2017
Time: 07:00pm to 10:00pm (registration starts at 06:30PM)
51 Cuppage Road,
Acc EduHub #03-03

Vibrant Room 3
Singapore 229469
(behind The Centrepoint & next to The Holiday Inn Hotel)

For Tutorial details, go here: PTT91 in Singapore



Pattern Trader Tutorial’s upcoming batch in Penang will run between 30 August and 04 September 2017. We have arranged to have a Preview Session for this;

Date: Thursday, 22 June 2017
Time: 07:00pm to 09:30pm (registration starts at 06:30PM)
YMCA Penang, Rm Grace 1
211 Jalan Macalister
George Town 10400
Pulau Pinang

For Tutorial details, go here: PTTPG06 in Penang.

Write to: to book your seat.