September 2017 In Review, October Preview

It’s been a quick and frenetic month for me with hardly a break between engagements. The intensity will continue into October as I am sure the bookings will come harder and faster. This is a wonderful problem to have and I am totally grateful that my efforts are coming to fruition. I am also grateful for the people who have made these connections possible.

If there was only one reason why all this was possible, that reason would have to be NETWORKING.

August and September have been my busiest months of networking for as long as I can remember. Because of this, I finally got back into an old platform that I gave up using a long time ago; LinedIn. (Thanks to the advise of Mike Li Yichuan)

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This has opened up even more doors and the opportunities just keep coming. The secret to anyone’s success will always be attributed largely to networking. For what I do, this is imperative. It is the lifeblood of my business. And it is something I absolutely love doing.

So if you’re reading this and wondering how to get started in improving your business, your awareness and your progress, just start networking and start meeting people. It only takes that first step to get started.

TUTORIAL MATTERS

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Between August 30 to September 04, for six straight days at 9 to 10 hours a day, the Pattern Trader Tutorial delivered its very first and only Straight-Through session in Penang (to a small and exclusive group). This session set all sorts of records for me; it was the smallest batch I have ever run, it was the longest stretch of hours, it was the most intensive but most effective session I have ever done and it was the most satisfying session I have ever done in all my teaching career.

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Then the batch came back between 22 to 24 September to complete the whole program with the Post-Graduate Coaching Tutelage. The graduates were put through their paces to research, strategise and plan their trades as well as pick up a few more pointers on improving their performance and discipline. The learning never ends and these students will be back for more when I return to Penang with greater things for them to learn.

This was so successful that past graduates from Kuala Lumpur took the effort to burn their super-long weekend off to come to Penang to keep their learning curve up.

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From 22 to 24 September, Tutorial Graduates came back to attend the Options Trading Bootcamp conducted by CP Wong. We’ve been running this peripheral workshop for several years now exclusively for PTT Graduates only. This is where the grads take their knowledge and experience with Options to the max by learning everything else including the Options pricing model, Volatility and Implied Volatility, multi-legged strategies, morphs, trade adjustments and synthetics.

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Things are about to get super-nuts in the coming weeks as we look to wrap up the final phases of our new website to launch by the end of October. These are exciting times … with much to be done and everything to play for.

To learn more about what we do,
Click here to register for the next
Pattern Trader Introductory Preview.

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MARKET MATTERS

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke higher highs all through a month that has historically been notorious for sell-offs – more signs that there’s more to this market’s resilience than meets the eye. Year-to-date, the Dow is higher by 13.37% which is amazing given the benchmark’s 9-month performance in recent years.

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ShillerIn spite of the fears of arguably the biggest bubble in stock market history (the 1999 bubble is still the one to beat), the US economy is showing no signs of any real economic slowdown that would give this market a reason to crash. I still maintain a correction is due but it shouldn’t turn into a catalyst for the next major economic disaster.

The reason I feel that the 1929 bubble is a more significant comparison is because of the nature of the 1999 bubble that was based on truly worthless companies being hyped up by the current trend of that time as well as all the other toxic situations that attributed to it such as the LTCM, World.com, Enron and the Dot.com itself.

Today’s market is a bubble of a different reason – excessive cheap money – that weighs differently from 1999 bubble. It is in many ways similar to the 1929 bubble in that leverage played a major role in that bubble between 1925 and 1929 just as $4Tr of QE has been the major influence in the current one since 2009.

But as I have said, the economic numbers are far too healthy in the US to warrant any sort of economic failure now.

Furthermore, with rates still on the way up and a reduction of at least $2Tr from the balance sheet due from next year onwards (and a hint of gradual rate increases in 2018), I really can’t see the market coming down in a huge catastrophic way yet. If it does, it will take a major capitulation in the economy for which, I can’t see happening in the next six months.

Of course, there is the question of war …

October Preview

October 2017 has 22 trading sessions and one Bond Market trading holiday, Columbus Day on Monday, 9 October (Bond markets will be closed). October is the end of the “Worst Six Months” and begins the “Best Six Months” on the DOW and S&P500.

October is infamous for some of the most notorious stock market crashes in history;

  1. The Panic of 1907 (October 1907)
  2. Black Tuesday, Thursday and Monday (October 1929)
  3. Black Monday (19 October 1987 – DOW down 22.6% in one day))

October of 2008 famously ended the reign of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns.

In spite of all its bearish infamy, October has actually ended more bear markets than started them in history. Massive drops in 1987, 1990, 2001 and 2002 promptly and sharply reversed in October to start long-term rallies. If you had been a buyer during Black Monday of 1987 you would have been massively wealthy by the time the Asian Financial Crisis hit in 1997.

October Trivia

Key Economic Dates For October 2017

Sun 01 October

Mon 02 October

Tue 03 October

Wed 04 October

Thu 05 October

Fri 06 October

Mon 09 October

Tue 10 October

Wed 11 October

Thu 12 October

Fri 13 October

Sun 15 October

Mon 16 October

Tue 17 October

Wed 18 October

Thu 19 October

Friday 20 October

Mon 23 October

Tue 24 October

Wed 25 October

Thu 26 October

Fri 27 October

Mon 30 October

Tue 31 October

Wed 01 November

Thu 02 November

Fri 03 November

Commodities

SUMMARY

Life is way to short to be sitting around and waiting for things to happen. There’s so much to savour, so much to live for and the whole world to explore.

It is so silly of us to devote so much of our time and energies slaving for an ungrateful boss for a meagre wage so that we can pay the bills and school the kids. We can do so much more only if we dared to. The only thing  holding us back is our fear of the unknown.

So think of this as you slave your ass off this week;

The danger is real.
The risks are real.
But fear is a choice.

Happy Hunting & Safe Trading!

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