August 2017 In Review, September Preview

August came and went so quick that I hadn’t realised it was time to write another monthly article until September 1st was upon me.

The month began with Lucy and me making a mad dash to K.L. in our trusty Grand Vitara for a last minute meeting in Mid-Valley. The old girl (the GV) still had her legs and ran like she wasn’t nine-and-a-half years old. She was to be retired two days later and this was our last adventure together. In the time we had her, she only ran 101,200km before this K.L. run. So in terms of mileage, she was still a young adult. In spite of her age, she still had the muscle, stability and reliability to outrun most of the other cars on the road. It was going to be painful to let her go.

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The next day, I made another appearance at UOB Kay Hian. This was a private event for clients and again, I had a blast sharing with them the wonderful world of Macroeconomics.

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To my Kay Hian girls, thanks so much for the event and the wonderful dinner!

The following day was one of mixed emotions. Normally you’d be excited to receive your new car but I wasn’t. I was actually more upset to be giving up the baby that kept my family and me safe and sound for almost a decade. My kids grew up from little primary schoolers riding in her back till they were old enough to drive her. We have all driven her and this is one memory we will all cherish as a family as we say goodbye to her.

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As one chapter ends, another begins. After driving my new Subaru Forester for almost a month now, I have begun to appreciate and love the way it moves. It is a damn fine car and I have no regrets choosing it. I am enjoying driving it more and more. But I still miss my GV.

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On 18 August, the Pattern Trader Tutorial did its first independent Tutorial to a full house. What a thrill! This batch was held over two weekends.

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Then for the first time, I went ‘live’ on the Alumni Page for the monthly Pattern Trader™ Gathering at 9:30pm on 18 August. The session was an hour long, initially meant as a test-run but turned into a full-blown, one-way gathering as graduates kept their queries coming. Looks like I’ll be keeping this format for future Gatherings until I have my own place.


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23 August saw me at FuckUp Nights … yes, you read right … an international event held all over the world where entrepreneurs share their failures and mistakes in the name of sharing and learning.

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I thoroughly enjoyed the event as it was a breath of fresh air after hearing and reading too much about success stories. To hear how one screws up and learns from mistakes to become better is so much more realistic than extraordinary success stories. Kudos to all the participants who came and RESPECT to my two other co-speakers for the night, Joelle and Tara for being brave enough to step up.

Friday 25 August brought me back to Phillip Capital for another round of institutional education. As in the previous sessions, this one garnered a lot of interest and very encouraging feedback.

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On Sunday night, 27 August, PTT 91 finally completed the two weekends of the Tutorial and still wanted more!!

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Thanks PTT91, for a fulfilling and gratifying two weekends of really good sharing!

And just like that, August came and went and before I knew it, I am in September, facing another month of packed schedules of engagements, meetings, appointments and classes. I am not complaining.

TUTORIAL MATTERS

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I have gotten a lot of queries as to why I chose to go independent rather than stay in a comfort zone.

My answer is simple; I want to slow down on the retail front and focus more on those who really want and need my services rather than waste time and resources having to sell the hell out of someone who isn’t convinced about his/her own financial needs. With so many new gurus in the market, I simply want to take a different route instead of being in that crowd.

Last month, I wrote;

I am in the business of educating and I educate those who want to learn. I shouldn’t have to convince you about how important it is and why you need it. You shouldn’t have to ask why it is necessary to take a complete and holistic approach to learning everything regarding your finances and the economic factors that will affect your wealth. I shouldn’t have to teach you the importance of not being complacent and ignorant. If I have to influence you into accepting all that has been mentioned in this paragraph, I strongly recommend that you look elsewhere for your education because you’re obviously not serious enough about your financial future.

It has been 17 years since I became bankrupt as a result of my financial ignorance and naiveté. It has been 10 years since I was discharged from that financial prison. I still wear the scars of my stupidity and my family will never forget the nightmare we went through. I still fear the possibility of history repeating itself. Thus, I continue to educate myself in the ever-growing, ever-evolving world of finance and economics so that I take nothing for granted.

And for the like-minded, I will continue to teach them and grow with them. This is my job because it is my #1 Passion.

I would rather share my passion with like-minded and hungry people than to spend time convincing someone that what I do is an integral part of our lives. I believe that sooner or later, everyone will have their moment of regret. That is the time they will seriously consider a solid financial education instead of dreaming of getting rich quick, financial freedom or becoming a millionaire. No one should be that financially ignorant and naive. However, most get caught up in the lies and the hard selling. So even if they’re not ignorant or naive, they end up being gullible. These people are not ready for the financial markets if their mind sets are so weak.

I often wonder why we can be so gullible when the obvious truth is right in our faces. We only see what we want to see and hear only good things. How I wish the markets were that straightforward and easy.

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I can only be glad that the students who do come my way aren’t gullible and/or naive. They know the hard work that lies ahead of them. They have no illusions and are prepared to put in the time and effort in order to build that secondary income or that financial career.

Natasha Bounaparte
Batch 83 (2015) and Batch 91 (2017) Singapore

Conrad teaches economics and finance in a very easy to understand and interesting fashion. Not only do his tips apply to trading, it is applicable to our everyday lives as well. He provides a holistic approach and leave no stone unturned. This is my 2nd time attending the Tutorial and discovered that what he teaches is always current and relevant. He shares personal stories, real life experiences and even setbacks.

Kitson Yoon
Batch 51 (2011) and Batch 91 (2017) Singapore

My initial Tutorial was in 2011. Conrad has never failed to wow his students and always has something new to offer every single session. There is no doubt that Conrad is the undisputed top financial trainer/coach/mentor in the region. The course fees require to have him as your mentor is truly value for money.

HS Ng
Batch 88 (2017) Singapore

I dropped out of university due to financial problems and almost quit in life until I discovered Conrad’s Pattern Trader Tutorial. It compelled me to work towards putting myself back in school so I can further work to fulfil my financial goals. Thanks Conrad. Now I don’t have to resign my life to living from paycheck to paycheck.

CY Chen
Batch 88 (2017) Singapore

I was sold when Conrad shared what he would cover in his Tutorial and it is perhaps the best decision I have made with regard to my aim to be fully responsible for my own trades and investments. True to what was shared in his Preview, the Pattern Trader Tutorial is a very comprehensive financial program that gave me a lot of insights on Sector Rotation, Seasons & Cycles and other things that move the markets.

Click here to read more testimonials: Testimonials 2017

Click here to register for the next Pattern Trader Introductory Preview.

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MARKET MATTERS

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The DOW is looking like resuming its parabolic run if it can break above the 22,142 resistance. With the first two weeks of September expected to be bullish (according to historical data) this break-above is highly likely but not without some stiff resistance. With the FOMC minutes due on the 20th, this could be a short-lived breakout as it remains to be seen if the Fed will keep to its view of reducing the balance sheet along with one more rate hike for the year.

The Transports fell into negative for the year in the fourth week of August but clawed its way back into the black before the month ended. It had also fallen below its 200DSMA for eight straight closes before fighting back and closing out the month above the critical indicator.

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The Russell2000 also briefly fell into negative YTD but recovered to close the month in the black. The Benchmarks were looking more and more divergent as August came to an end but seems to have found some positive footing in the last week.

Another scary prospect is the constantly narrowing spread on the Yield Curve. Since the start of this year, it is becoming increasingly clear that the curve is pivoting on the belly and threatening to flatten. The flattening accelerated during the month of August with the 30year yield falling 13bps as the longer maturities saw a flight to safety
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30-Aug-17
2yr: 1.33%
5yr: 1.70%
10yr: 2.12%
30yr: 2.73%

The spread between the 10 year yield (2.12%) and the 30th year yield (2.73) closed to 61bps.

This flattening is becoming a worrying factor as investors see this as a sign of serious doubt in the risk markets that often leads into fear and an inversion in the Yield Curve. (An Inverted Yield Curve has always been an ominous sign ahead of major economic weakness.)

September Preview

September is the last and worst month of quarter three which is traditionally the worst quarter of the year. September 2017 has twenty trading days and one public holiday. In the last 67 years since 1950, September has been the most bearish month of the trading year for the DOW and S&P. It is also the worst month of the worst four months (July to October) on NASDAQ.

September Trivia

Key Economic Dates For September 2017

Friday 01 September

Mon 04 September

Tue 05 September

Wed 06 September

Thu 07 September

Fri 08 September

Mon 11 September

Tue 12 September

Wed 13 September

Thu 14 September

Fri 15 September

Mon 18 September

Tue 19 September

Wed 20 September

Thu 21 September

Friday 22 September

Mon 25 September

Tue 26 September

Wed 27 September

Thu 28 September

Fri 29 September

Commodities

SUMMARY

With September comes more volatility as the market has historically been unstable and even bearish for the last 86 year on the DOW and S&P500. Although there are more signs to be bullish, one cannot help but feel that the time to correct is near. I will remain bullish but very cautiously so.

This is also the month I get crazy busy again as more and more engagements come in and I get more hard pressed for time to deliver my new website. This is going to get hectic. But what the heck … bring it on!

Happy Hunting & Safe Trading!

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