June 2017 In Review, July Preview
June was a weird month for me mostly because my household was missing one person who had gone off to serve his nation. It’s so strange not having him around and I do miss my gym and swim buddy.
Other than that, the Pattern Trader did its first independent Previews in Singapore (June 20th) and Penang (June 22nd).
The turn out was encouraging and sustainable given that I intend to slow down the frequency of the Tutorials with this independence to focus on other things.
If you missed this session in Singapore, consider coming for the second Introductory Preview Session where you will get answers to all your queries regarding attending the tutorial. Register here: PATTERN TRADER INTRODUCTORY SESSION
TUTORIAL MATTERS
The Tutorial’s 10th Edition Notes were also completed in June to cap my finest work to date. The participants will also be getting a comprehensive “Gift Pack” of tools and support goodies to help them along with their homework and assignments complete with references and work samples.
There will be more than 50 hours of Tutorials. Thereafter, graduates of the Tutorial will be given four Post Graduate Assignments to manage. Those who need extra hands-on help can get it with our Post Graduate Tutelage, (optional for an additional S$499.00) comprising four week-night sessions of small group coaching and tuition.
Along with the most efficient syllabus to date, the Pattern Trader Tutorial is now more complete and holistic than its ever been, boasting 40 solid chapters of the smartest methodologies and defensive financial techniques along with support that no other workshop can claim to have.
Time-tested and proven over the last decade, the Pattern Trader Tutorial and its support programs are destined to become the most exclusive financial education from hereon in. This is the most complete financial syllabus that you’re not going to find anywhere else and is NOT for those who are dreaming about becoming millionaires or attaining financial freedom because this is not a get-rich-quick program. Past graduates have testified that this is more complete than most MBA programs.
It is designed for those who wish to know everything about their finances and how economics can affect their money without attending a formal education. The Tutorial gives the participant the knowledge and skills required to begin or accelerate their financial journey in the money markets, online and offline. This is material you will never find in books or other workshops because those experiences only happen to the REAL MACROTRADERS who know how the market works, how the floor operates and how the institutions make it their killing field.
For a full run-down on the Tutorial and its support programs, please look here: The Complete Pattern Trader Tutorial
- No prior experience needed (not unless you were trained by industry pros from the floor and not some keyboard warrior who got lucky online who only knows about trading from what he sees on his charts)
- Clear head (instead of all the rubbish you read on the net)
- Realistic expectations (forget about millionaire dreams)
- A spirit that is ready for a lot of really hard work ahead. (If you don’t like that idea, please don’t join … just keep dreaming that making money is very easy or join a guru who sells that idea)
- A PASSION to grow, learn and love everything life can throw at you.
Please consider coming for the Introductory Preview Session where you will get answers to all your queries regarding attending the tutorial. Register here: PATTERN TRADER INTRODUCTORY SESSION
Interested parties can write to me at support@patterntrader.com. (Naysayers, crabs, haters and competitors need not apply so save yourself the time and effort and go hate someone else please.)
MARKET MATTERS
Its been an odd month of June and I can’t say I have a lot to talk about as it was generally quite boring. Even the Paris Air Show was a non-event for the financial markets. But things are getting very interesting on the economic fronts of Singapore, the United States and even Malaysia. China, as usual, continues to provide the disruptive element to every economy in the region and is going to be a key factor for Asian direction in Q3.
July Preview
July is the start of quarter three and is the best month in the worst quarter of the year. Having said that, it is also the most volatile month of the trading year. The three months of Q3 are extremely varied with July reputed to be the most volatile, August being the most bearish in the last 26-plus years with no reliable patterns and September, known famously for having the lowest volumes of any month and the most bearish of the calendar year over the last 86-plus years.
July 2017 has 19 full trading sessions, one shortened session (Monday, 3 July) and one public holiday (Tuesday, 4 July). July is known for its volatility with huge swings either way. It is also the start of the third earnings season of the year when companies are known to pull back on their guidance and become conservative about their outlooks.
July Trivia
- Monday 3 July is a shortened trading day. Markets will close at 13:00EST
- The first trading day of July is the most bullish having been up on the DOW 22 of the last 27 (Last year up)
- Tuesday 4 July 2017 is Independence Day – Markets Closed
- The second trading session (Wednesday 5 July) immediately becomes volatile/bearish
- The second week is usually bullish but can be volatile as earnings season begins
- Monday of July Expiration Week has been bullish on the DOW 10 of the last 13 (Last year up)
- July Expiration Friday is bearish with DOW going down 10 of the last 16 (Last year down)
- The week after July Expiration Friday is prone to wild swings with DOW up 9 of the last 14 (Last 2 years down)
- Wednesday 26 July – FOMC Minutes & Fed Funds Rate at 2pm EST
- The last day of July is traditionally bullish but down on the NASDAQ 9 of the last 11 (Last year down)
Key Economic Dates
Sun 02 July
- Japan Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Index
- Australia Building Approvals m/m
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Mon 03 July
- UK Manufacturing PMI
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Australia Retails Sales m/m
Tue 04 July
- Australia Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement
- UK Construction PMI, Inflation Report Hearings
Wed 05 July
- UK Services PMI
- US FOMC Beige Book Meeting Minutes
- Australia Trade Balance
Thu 06 July
- EU ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Initial Claims, Trade Balance, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Inventories, FOMC Member Powell Speaks
Fri 07 July
- ALL – G20 Meetings
- UK Halifax HPI m/m, Manufacturing Production m/m, Goods Trade Balance
- US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate
Sat 08 July
- ALL – G20 Meetings
Sun 09 July
- China CPI y/y, PPI y/y
Mon 10 July
- Australia NAB Business Confidence
Wed 12 July
- UK Average Earnings Index3m/y, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate
- US Crude Inventories
- China Trade Balance
Thu 13 July
- UK BOE Credit Conditions Survey
- US PPI and Core PPI m/m, Initial Claims
Fri 14 July
- US CPI and Core CPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Capacity Utilisation Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Consumer Sentiment
- Singapore Pattern Trader 10th Anniversary Gathering (Graduates only)
Sun 16 July
- China GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset ytd/y, BNS Press Conference
Mon 17 July
- US Empire State Manufacturing Index
- Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tue 18 July
- UK CPI y/y, PPI Input m/m, RPI y/y
- EU Final CPI y/y, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- US Import Prices m/m
Wed 19 July
- US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories
- Australia Employment Change, Unemployment Change, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
- Japan Monetary Policy Statement
Thu 20 July
- Japan BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Press Conference
- UK Retail Sales m/m
- EU Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference
- US Initial Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Fri 21 July
- EU Eurozone, French and German Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
Mon 24 July
- USD Existing Home Sales
Tue 25 July
- EU German Iso Business Climate
- USD Consumer Confidence
- Australia CPI q/q, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
Wed 26 July
- UK Prelim GDP q/q
- US New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate
Thu 27 July
- EU M3 Money Supply y/y
- US Durable and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Initial Claims
Fri 28 July
- EU German Prelim CPI m/m
- US Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Employment Cost Index q/q, Revised Consumer Sentiment
Sun 30 July
- China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI
Mon 31 July
- EU German Retail Sales m/m, Eurozone CPI and Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y,
- UK Net Lending to Individuals m/m
- US Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m
- Australia Building Approvals m/m
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Commodities
- Crude finds support in late June/early July
- Nat Gas sees strength mid month till mid October
- Gold and Silver also finds strength in July till October
- Soya tends to bottom in July
- Wheat maintains its seasonal strength
- Corn stays weak in July but is known to make sudden rallies depending on the weather
- Cocoa tops out and reverses down towards the end of July
- Coffee stays weak
- Sugar is volatile because of harvests in Brazil and India
SUMMARY
Now we go into the worst three months of the trading year with a market that’s grossly overbought, commodities that stay stubbornly under-valued and bond yields that are hugely under par. Its going to be an interesting quarter especially if my three-year outlook (from mid-2014) is to remain on track with a major correction expected in September/October.
I am personally excited that my career takes on a new path of independence to allow me to do more of what I love and to venture into new areas of businesses. It has been stressful for the last couple of months but its a good stress that I wouldn’t give up for anything less.
Stay keen, stay alert and stay safe!
Happy Hunting Always!!
If you enjoyed this post, please consider to visit Pattern Trader Tools, leave a comment or subscribe to the feed and get future articles delivered to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.