December 2014 Review, January 2015 Preview

Happy New Year!

Okay, its five days late but according to the 12 Days of Christmas, this is the last day of those 12 days so I insist that my new year’s greeting is still not too late! (That’s what I call selective statistical manipulation)

2014 was a tough year not just for me, as I understand it, but for most. My friend, Numerologist Gracy Yap did say at the start of 2014 that she expected the year to be tough and the market should see some gains by year-end. She was spot on. I was of a similar opinion but was more bearish than her about the second half of the year – wasn’t far off on my call – until October rallied for no real reason.

The Tutorial was very busy as I finished up the financial year. WATMY28 wrapped up their Tutorial on December 14.

This is the very last batch at our old training centre at TTDI. We’ve been there since 2007. I believe that I had the very first session there and I probably had the very last session there seven years later. We leave a lot of great memories behind as we move to our new premises at Solaris, Mont Kiara. We made a lot of friendships there that have lasted all these years including meeting my good buddy and steady friend in trading, G.M. Teoh.

I am very proud to say that we outlasted most of the other tenants who were there with us since day one. Many went bust during the Sub-Prime and others simply couldn’t hold out as greedy landlords raised the rentals through the bullish years of 2011 and 2013. Of the many tenants there today, only three (including ourselves) remain since day 1. Now we leave that record behind. *sigh*.

So we start the new year with new beginnings here in Singapore and in K.L. with spanking new facilities and new chapters to write and new friendships to be forged. Here’s a sneak peek at our Singapore facilities at 51 Cuppage Road, #06-16 Starhub Centre, Singapore 229469.

My first engagement there will be this Thursday’s 7:00pm Preview for the January intake of the Tutorial. Please send your queries to patterntrader@akltg.com if you intend to attend.

In the last weeks of December, I rewarded myself with a holiday to Italy. In so doing, I set a new record for myself by (technically) visiting four countries in three days – Dubai, UAE to Nice, France to Monte Carlo, Monaco to Genoa, Italy. Three days later, we made it five countries by going to Vatican City. We ended our trip in Pompeii and Rome to make it one of my most historical holidays ever. I have always been a student of history especially in ancient Greek and Roman history and this was such a treat.

I will be going back for a second round – a more leisurely second round – to cover everything else I missed during this tour.

Amongst the things I will be looking to improve this year is the way I reach out to more people by means of social media and new media avenues. Conventional advertising just doesn’t work the way it used to and I can’t stay stubborn if I want to grow this year. I will be looking to work with Owl City, a business development company that specialises in online advertising, marketing through various methods like social networking, email and web-browsing. You can visit them at www.facebook.com/owlcitysg if you’re looking at new avenues of marketing. You can also give me feedback via this posting in the comments.

MY  GOALS FOR 2015

I wrote in Facebook that I don’t make resolutions. But I did set myself up for one heck of a series of quantum achievements …

I relish the opportunities that lie before me as I embark on my 10th year of teaching and my ninth year at AKLTG.

MARKET MATTERS

Not the best start to the year with DOW barely squeezing out a gain while the S&P500 (-0.04%) and NASDAQ (-0.19%) both registered losses on the first day of trading.

Let’s not forget that we’ve started 2015 on the back of some foreboding prophecies … no sell-off in May 2014, terrible Black Friday numbers and now, no Santa Claus Rally … all signs that 2015 is going to be a rough and tough year. The last time we had these prophecies all lined up perfectly was in January of 2006 and January of 2007. I reckon you’ll know the significance of those years.

The yield curve has also been showing us foreboding signs by falling in a flattening fashion. This signifies a massive run on monies into safety – yields fall as bond prices get bought up – in spite of the many dovish reports emerging from news networks that this rally still has legs.

Volumes across the board have weakened throughout the year in spite of the rally. In fact, the higher the equity markets rose, the lower volumes became – not a sign of a greedy market at all.

(For NYSE volume references, go to:
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/factbook/viewer_edition.asp?mode=table&key=3141&category=3)

Although the VIX came down a bit before Christmas, it is still relatively high at 17.79 after Friday’s close.

Remembering what happened last January, I will be keeping a keen eye out for hints that the big boys may be hedging ahead of a major tanker.

This is going to be a tricky 2015 starting with a tricky January. Unlike last year, I suspect the first half of the year will be rocky and extremely volatile but the second half from September onward should see the market return to normalcy.

January Preview

January 2015 has 20 trading sessions and two holidays. January is usually a bullish month and is famous for its January Barometer prophecy – “As goes January, so goes the year”. This implies that is January closes with a gain, so will the rest of the year. But if January closes with a loss, we’re in for a tough year.

Also watch for the “First Five Days” indicator which is as reliable as the January Barometer – if the first five sessions of the year finishes with a gain, the year is often bullish. If they lose, the year will likely be bearish.

January is the last month in the “Best Three Consecutive Months” in a trading year – November, December and January – that has seen the DOW make gains 15 of the last 20 years.

January Trivia

Commodities

SUMMARY

I will be a feature in this year’s SIM Youth Financial Symposium 2015. The Youth Financial Symposium is a full day event with a series of financial seminars and networking lunch with professionals in the industry.

Date: 17th January 2015
Time: 10.00am to 5.00pm
Venue: SIM HQ – Performing Arts Theatre

Use this link to register if you intend to attend: SIM Youth Financial Symposium 2015

As always, stay defensive and hedged. There are more reasons to be careful now than aggressive.

Trade Safe & Happy Hunting Always!

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