January 2013 Review, February Preview

January came and went like a whirlwind and everything happened so fast. Before I knew it, I am staring at the calendar that read “February 2013” … where did January go? I wasn’t that busy as I only had one batch of WAT and not much travelling. WAT63 finished their tutorial with me on 29 January 2013. This was a weekend batch and it was a great batch to start the new year with. Thanks 63 for a joyous time and for the energy you fed back all through the tutorial. Now onto the next step of your journey – be safe and be diligent!

I guess the house move was what really kept me busy as we finished up the renovations at my new place and packed up to move. As of today, we’ve been living in our new home for exactly two weeks.

The new home marks the complete end to the most volatile periods of my life and puts to bed a life-long dream that I had been chasing. Its been a long, tiring and sometimes very painful ride. With two little kids in tow and a determined wife, we weathered the storms, rode out the wild rides, cried through the pains and made the most of everything we had. We always stayed positive and faithful to the belief that things will get better. We prayed, we worked hard, we saved and scrimped, we lived from hand to foot but we always stayed happy with what we had. We were thankful for the little things we had and the love we shared.

I am still very sorry for putting my family through that seven-year (bankruptcy) ordeal but I am thankful that they stayed faithful to my beliefs and my visions. I thank them for the love and motivation that has seen us climb out of that rut into something better. Its been a long, tiring and sometimes very painful 12 years but everything happened for a reason and I am thankful they did.

MARKET MATTERS


In spite of the last two down days in the month, January 2013 finished as the best January since 1994. The DOW is now a mere 303.95 points away from its all time high of 14,164.53 in October of 2007. The S&P is a little way back with 67.04 points to gain before hitting its October 2007 high of 1,565.15. The NASDAQ, already above its 2007 high, is starting to look very shaky (thanks to AAPL) and has formed a Head and Shoulders Pattern that is always a reliable indication that the tech-heavy index is about to capitulate.

On the major indices, it would seem like this is the 5th wave (orange line) since 2009’s bottom and the 3rd and final wave of the current trend since the September 2012 bottom (green line wave 0 to 1). If the Elliot Wave has its way, we’re in for a tanker once this run tops out.

The 2007 historical high of 14,164 is likely to be the catalyst to watch for as well as the traditionally un-bullish month of February. Even my PHIb-XOP points to that historical level as the most probable catalyst.

Having said that, the good news is that the First Five Day Indicator and the January Barometer are pointing to 2013 being a bullish rather than a bearish year. This marries well to the Santa Claus Rally which only managed to squeeze out a gain in its last four sessions. Well, better to have it than not … at least the bulls will be happy about that.

On the macro front, the U.S. just confirmed that its economy shrank for the first time in more than three years with its contraction of Q4 (which was widely unexpected). This will put pressure on other countries that have been fighting to keep their growth above the waterline. Singapore is one such country. With the government already warnings its public of a possible slowdown in 2013, it seems inevitable that Singapore’s Q4 growth will contract for a second consecutive quarter and put the Little Red Dot in a technical recession … not that it matters anyway because the island’s growth has been on a constant decline since 2010 anyway with the numbers barely cheating a consecutive contraction every time since then.

Looks like tough times ahead. Whether we tank in February or extend the run into April and then tank in May, I will be conservative and prepared. The idea will be to increase my hedges and go defensive on my portfolio for now. I don’t want to be left behind if the tanker never comes and at the same time, I don’t want to be left with my ass hanging in the wind if it happens sooner rather than later.

FEBRUARY PREVIEW

February 2013 is the shortest trading month of the year with only 19 trading sessions and a public holiday. February usually opens well but finishes poorly. February is the worst of the three months in quarter one and tends to be flat-to-bearish is most years past. The month is also known as “the weakest link” in the best six month on the DOW and S&P from November to April.

February Trivia

Commodities

SUMMARY

I haven’t had a break since mid-2011 and now I want to take a breather in my new home and enjoy the luxuries and spoils of my hard work and my family’s sacrifices. It’s going to be a grand Chinese New Year as I say “Thanks” and bid farewell to the Dragon and welcome the Snake. The Dragon has been good to me and I will miss it for another 12 years. I look forward to welcoming it back again on my 60th year.

Here’s wishing all my readers a very Happy and Profitable Chinese New Year. May your dreams and aspirations be realized and may you stay humble and prudent with each progressive step to success.

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