November 2012 Review, December Preview

It was a short month but a damn busy month. Even as I write this out, I am tired as hell and needing a break badly. Amongst the many things that happened in November, we put the 11 November Candlestick and Breakout Patterns Workshop down on video to update the clips on www.patterntradertools.com. The new clips should be up on the site by early next year.

On 14th November, the weekend batch, WAT62 finished their intensive tutorial along with more than 20 re-sitting graduates.

Then on 23 November, we broke tradition for the first time in six years to have our Annual Christmas Gathering in November instead of December because of scheduling difficulties. About 300 graduates returned to listen to Jason’s paper on the Fiscal Cliff and Leon’s metaphysical outlook for 2013, It was a great night to catch up with old friends and make new ones at our second home, Klapson’s.

Between all that, I was busy with coach training, private mentoring, booster lessons in KL and renovations to my apartment. This is my first year since my bankruptcy discharge that I didn’t take a break at all.

I am very tired.

MARKET MATTERS

I began closing out my positions in October and slowed my trading down in November seeing that I was going to be very busy and would not have time to monitor the market. I even stopped writing the Daily Market Analysis a week ago so that I could have more time to rest. Since then, the market has been looking like starting its year-end rally. Black Friday’s numbers were impressively better than 2011’s numbers but the stress in Europe continues to dog the risk markets in the U.S.

The housing sector in America is still churning out dovish numbers, hinting that the economy could be at a turning point but I wouldn’t want to dive into this just yet until we get a clearer outcome of the impending Fiscal Cliff threat in 31 days.

At the time of writing this (30 November, AMC) the DOW and NASDAQ have fought their way back above their 20DSMA and the critical 200DSMA. They also managed closes above their respective critical levels of 13,000 and 3,000 which will give the bulls more confidence about the year end rally. SPX went one better by getting above its 100DSMA before getting rejected at its 50DSMA. Now all that remains is a break above the stubborn 1,420 retracement before it makes another run for its 1,465 year-high close. November 2012 was DOW’s consecutive monthly loss since May – September last year.

Volumes have been returning slowly but surely and the internals are supporting the bulls for now. Frankly, I have a bull feeling about all this.

December Trivia

Commodities

SUMMARY

I know this is a short posting, the shortest monthly update yet. But there’s really nothing to discuss, write about or analyze as the market lollygaggers its way into the year end, anticipating the Fiscal Cliff. It has become highly headline sensitive to economic news most of which have been hawkish around the world. Having said that, the hawkishness seems to be abating somewhat but I can’t say that the economies have turned the corner to become dovish yet. Remember that most economies are hiding the fact that they are actually in recession.

I’ll be staying out of the market till the start of next year. But I won’t be out completely because I will be a spectator … and a keen what at that.

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