Three Years On …

I started a forum on trading around mid 2005 at patterntrader.proboards.com. That forum became a wealth of information and my personal archive. Upon teaching at AKLTG, the forum was migrated to www.wealthacademyinvestor.com/forum towards the end of 2007 to facilitate the growing number of members as well as the Investors from Wealth Academy (WA) and later on, Traders from Wealth Academy Forex (WAF).

In early 2008, six months after the market started falling as a result of the Sub-Prime debacle, our then new forum (www.wealthacademyinvestor.com/forum) crashed and much of the data was lost forever. But thanks to our dedicated and selfless community, many traders re-posted whatever they had saved to revive the forum again. Many had backed-up certain parts of the forum for personal reasons and were able to restore up to 70% of what was lost. I was also able to retrieve some of the data from the old proboards forum and all these combined efforts brought our forum back online in no time at all. It was like it never crashed.

The forum has since migrated and it is almost one year to the day that this PatternTraderTools forum was born. This was to facilitate the ever-growing number of graduates from the Pattern Trader Tutorial and to make it absolutely private and exclusive. Looking back through all those forums is like a going back in a time machine to see its evolution and the growth of the success of what we’ve built. It also reveals how each and everyone of us has evolved from amateur traders to savvy financiers in the way we asked and answered questions.

And one truly amazing fact is that it has captured our outlooks on the market to vindicate the accuracy of our analyses since 2006 through to the current situation. It sends a chill down my spine that we could have been this accurate during a time when we were simple, unsophisticated and used simple common sense analysis to prepare us for the worst to come.

In October of 2007, before the market started sliding, I mentioned in the WA forum that the market was going to take a huge slide and that it wouldn’t be far-fetched to imagine getting from from 14,000 to 9,500 within the coming year. Of course I was slammed and ridiculed. But I kept my focus regardless if that analysis turned out right or wrong.

Then the forum crashed before the market tanked in January of 2008.

Upon restoration, after the market made its spectacular drop from 14,000 to 12,000, I made this first posting …

Originally Posted by Conrad on Monday 21 January, 2008 View Post

Its a pity the forum got slammed because at the start of October last year, this is exactly what I said was going to happen. Going back further (in my old forum) I mentioned that the end of 2007 was going to be soft and this softness would carry into the middle of 2008. The longer term future, if you think all this is bad news, is that we are going to be soft for the long term … how long? I suspect till 2010. Any sort of recovery will probably be around mid to late 2011 to mid 2012.

Visionary or smart analysis? … Or blind luck?

Either way, every one of my analyses have panned out accurately in the last five years. My only regret is that I wish I wasn’t so damn accurate.

Going forward, I am still keeping the view that this pain is going to get worse before it gets better. This will drag into next year and will probably find a bottom by the middle of 2012, give or take a quarter. And the low? … well, its a long shot but the call in 2007 was also a long shot – 9,500 on the DOW. And if the world doesn’t end by 21 December 2012, we should get into a massive rally that will go all the way into 2016.

I am not a fortune teller and there is no way I can guarantee that this will be the actual outcome. This analysis, as with all my analysis, is based on macroeconomics, technical analysis, historical patterns and economic models, market time-lines and plain ol’ common sense.

And just to scare the living shit out of everyone, I will leave you with these two charts from 2008 and the current one.

Sweet Dreams, Have a lovely weekend and Happy Hunting!

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Comments

hi conrad, thanks for sharing.. i still thinking of going this month.. your chart make me think twice.. lol

Yep. Even after I finished the previous WATMY .. I still realize there is a lot to learn. Keep on doing your great job, Conrad ! :)

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