April 2010 In Review, May Preview
APRIL IN REVIEW
The month began with the Technical Analysis Masterclass in K.L. between 2 and 4 April with a Shareinvestor/CIMB event at Bursa Malaysia on the 3rd.
On Wednesday 14 April, WAT Batch 37 graduated after 8 weeks. I am going to miss teaching this class. The energy and camaraderie is truly amazing.
WAT37
On Thursday 15 April, I did a talk at CIMB in Singapore to about 80+ investors. I thoroughly enjoyed that session as the crowd proved to be very savvy and the questions and exchanges were really fruitful.
16 April saw WAT having the Scalp Night Gathering. 120 grads attended this gathering that was hosted first by Henry then by me.
That was a memorable night for everyone because it’s not often you get to see Goldman Sachs tank like this:
On the weekend of 16 to 19 April, Adam and I graduated 85 newly minted investors in Jakarta at the 6th intake of Wealth Academy.
Sunday 25 April saw my good buddy, G.M Teoh and myself conduct the “Crash” Course at CIMB in Malaysia. Sorry, someone forgot to take pictures of that event.
Yes, it was a really busy month. Between all those events, there were also the usual Candlestick Workshops and Breakout Patterns Workshops and the ongoing tutorials and gatherings in all three countries. I am not complaining … yet … because my May calendar is looking busier!
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MAY IN PREVIEW
This is what my May weekends looks like;
- 30 Apr – 3 May; Pattern Trader Tutorial in K.L.
- 8 – 9 May ; Technical Analysis Masterclass in Singapore
- 14 – 17 May ; Pattern Trader Tutorial in JKT.
- 22 – 23 May ; Wealth Academy Expo at Singapore Expo
- 28 May ; Pattern Trader Tutorial Follow-up Session in K.L.
- 29 May ; Pattern Trader Tutorial Preview Session in K.L.
And that’s just the weekends! I won’t bore you with the weekday engagements except for starting WAT (SG) 39 on 5 May and graduating WAT (SG) 38 on 19 May.
Now on to market matters … May - That famous sell-off. Before we get all bearish and everything, let’s take a closer look at the stats for this month;
- The first two days of May are traditionally the most bullish of the month (9 out of the last 11 years)
- This is usually followed by three of the most bearish days (that famous sell-off).
- May starts the worst 6 months on the DOW and S&P500.
- May also represents one of the most prolific months for short term gains as bargain hunters always pick up stocks after the sell-off and sends the market back up in a hurry.
- The rest of the month is fairly bullish.
- Expiration Friday is usually bearish.
- Grains tend to peak out in May.
- Precious metals get weak after peaking out earlier than grains.
- Copper also reliably tops out in May.
- Energy traders begins consolidating their positions in anticipation of the seasonal sell-down in June.
The last trading day of May will be Friday 28 May as Monday 31 May is a trading holiday in observance of Memorial Day. This makes the 28th an interesting prospect as the eve of a three-day weekend should rally and when the market returns on 1 June, the rally should continue as the first day of June is the most bullish of that month (9 out of the last 10 years).
Market Or PIGS Sty?
April 2010 will be remembered as the month Greece, Portugal and Spain hit the markets real hard and for the harder hit that Goldman Sachs was accused for taking America for suckers. So where to now?
Well China has been sneakily tanking without anyone raising alarm bells … yet. This looks like the start of a slow bleed. This is the kind of slow bleed that started the decline in the U.S. in September and October of 2007. I hope we don’t get the same thing from China.
Personally, I’ve been making on Puts in the U.S. and have taken all my short term long positions off the table and drilled my SG account down to the minimum. I am not taking chances. After all, I will be busy in May and will be taking a break in June so all the reason to not be in the market with so much risk.
So bring on May, already! I can still trade it whenever I have time and I love how profitable May always is.
Happy Hunting and Trade Safe!
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great post as usual!