February 2010 In Review – March Preview
This is going to be a short post because February was quite uneventful in spite of the Chinese New Year celebrations. February was also my last chance to get as much rest and family time before the mad season began – which always happens the week after Chinese New Year. From this day forward, I can count the number of free weekends on half a hand all the way to November.
But I ain’t complaining … yet.
For the third year running, INVEST Magazine has chosen to feature an article from me. With this article, they’ve also requested that I write another piece for the next issue too. Looks like I might become a regular feature.
Amidst all the other usual activities, on the 20 and 21 March weekend, the ATIC Asia Trader & Investor Convention will be held at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre, Kuala Lumpur City Centre.
My spot will be on Sunday 21 March at 4:45pm in the NextVIEW room.
And that’s all I want to highlight for now … it’s just too messy to talk about everything else that March is about to throw at me.
But I ain’t complaining … yet.
MARKET PREVIEW FOR MARCH 2010
For the first time after three consecutive years, February has closed positively. And now we watch that extremely crucial December-low level of 10,235.63 and pray like mad that DOW doesn’t break below that by the end of March.
The DOW looks to have completed a Pennant and that Doji might just prompt some sort of break-out next week. 10,400 will become the next level of contention with a soft resistance at 10,440. On weekly candles, DOW wears a Hanging Man which implies a week of consolidation to come. Monthly candles give DOW a Bullish Harami (Inside Bar) – a break above the high of February could indicate some upside for March.
This leaves the DOW and S&P below their respective 50DSMAs leaving only the NASDAQ above all its major MAs. This fight against the 50DSMA is going to be a key battle in the coming week. If the market is to gain higher ground in the weeks to come, it will have to hold above the 20DSMA first.
March has a tradition of opening with a modestly bullish week. The second week of March tends to be the most bullish of the month while the third week goes into some major corrections and finishes badly in the closing week.
March is the longest trading month of the 2010 calendar with 23 trading session and no holidays. March Expiration is the first Triple Witching Friday of the year and is highly unpredictable.
The 14th of March (Sunday) will see Daylight Savings resume and will bring the clocks of Singapore and the U.S. closer by an hour. Local traders will welcome the favored 9:30pm (SG) opening bell in the U.S. starting on the Ides of March.
Remembering that we had a bearish January Barometer, investors will be watching the close of March for the quarter-ending December Low indicator. In recent years, March has failed to close with the usual end-of-quarter window dressing rally. Since 2005, the only time the last week of March was bullish was, ironically, the worse year in recent stock market history – 2008.
Following on the past week’s volatility and the end of earning season, normalcy should resume. Greece will continue to be a drag, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday will be keenly watched, the dollar will continue to be a fear indicator, Wednesday’s Beige Book report will be highly anticipated and the market will continue its roller-coaster ride, albeit with less volatility.
SUMMARY
For now, I am going to take a deep breath and suck it all in and brace myself for the next 10 months. With everything else that’s going on, it’s going to be busy, it’s going to be rough and it’s going to be one helluva roller coaster … and that’s just the market I’m talking about.
And after all that, I’ll complain.
Happy Hunting!
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