Where’s The War?

On 27 April 2009, in “What Now Brown Cow? … Bull Run or Bull S**T?”, I wrote:

Didn’t I write somewhere on this blog that three things normally accompany a recession?

  1. Pandemic
  2. Natural Disasters on a national/international scale
  3. War

Well, one down, two to go.

That was in April last year at the end of the H1N1 scare. Since then, we’ve gone through massive floods, multiple earthquakes on a weekly basis, unusually heavy weather and cyclonic storms. Some deaths were reported and destruction was massive as were the financial losses.

Two down, one to go.

In my Monthly Report on the Defense sector back in May 2009, I listed in detail, all the times the market went into distress and war led it out into recovery.

So if this recovery is to be complete and if patterns are to repeat themselves, where is the war and how likely is it to be this year, 2010, that it happens?

In an interesting conversation with a Fengshui practitioner, I discovered another “statistic” that support the possibility of war, conflict or unrest in 2010, the year of the Tiger. I went to the Times of Fengshui and picked up a brochure on the Flying Stars Chart for the Year of the Metal Tiger and found this …

Looking back in history, the Korean War and the US and Soviet Union’s race to build the first nuclear bombs in 1950, Cuba’s Missile Crisis and the Chinese-Indian border war in 1962, Turkey’s invasion of Cyprus in 1974, the Soviet Union’s Chernobyl accident in 1986, US and UK’s bombing of Iraq in 1998 …

… all conflicts and unrest that came with the Tiger year.

Tension is building in several hot-spots and history has proven time and again that war happens where you least expect it. The current obvious candidates are Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and North Korea. Unlikely places that could reach boiling point are Myanmar, Somalia (again) and Nigeria.

Where ever it happens, we know one thing for a fact … war is good business and America, being the world’s superpower, stands to make the most money from war.

I have said that America used to be a great economy when they were building stuff, innovating, manufacturing and producing world class products for the world. Today they don’t make anything anymore (save AAPL, MSFT, etc) but they are still the world’s premier producers of war and all that supports this business, mechanically, logistically and administratively. There is no doubt that the biggest producer of war technology and ordnance will stand to make great gains from conflict and war.

And right now, America could use a healthy boost in the business of making  money from production instead of the sickeningly tired Wall Street way of making a (dirty) buck.

Definitely a sector to watch in the Year of the Metal Tiger.

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