What a Unique Monday … 14 Sep 09
If this morning is anything to go by, this week is going to be a really “Boomz” week for me! Already, now at 16:00hrs (SG), everything seems to be falling into place right from the time I woke up.
After sending my kids (who weren’t late for a change) to school, Lucy and I decided to do our weekly visit to Mac’s at East Coast for breakfast. No, I didn’t go there to look at chics in “biginis“. I have a habit of visiting the East Coast at least once a week to see the state of our shipping industry by checking out the “parking lot” in front of Marine Parade.
By sheer coincidence, Lucy and I bump into Bernard and Serene, both students of mine. Bernard is a very close friend who is also in my SBG (Skills Builder Group) and a former school mate from St. Patrick’s. He and Serene had also just dropped their kids off at school and decided on the same venue for breakfast. It was really good to catch up with a man who has a busier schedule than me and be able to spend time just chit-chatting and talking shop. Believe me … for two of us to do this is really a luxury, granted our schedules – we can’t even get a date to make our SBG most of the time, much to the frustration of our other 6 members!
About an hour into our chance get-together, my sister, Gwen comes blading by. What are the chances. And it gets sweeter – she tells me that my friend is sitting just round the corner at Coffee Bean. Friend? Which friend? It turns out to be another guy with a schedule that’s busier than Bernard’s and mine combined – Adam Khoo.
Adam and his wife, Sally, joined us at Mac’s and here is a typical case of a small world that just became that little bit smaller – Bernard and Serene are both grads of WA so they both know Adam plus they are also active practitioners of Adam’s POE program and they had sent their three kids to Adam’s kid’s programs in the past. So yes, Adam knows them well. Gwen is currently tutoring Bernard’s kids at the center she trains at and in the middle of all this networking, I am the common factor for all the parties. What a really small world.
The cris-crossing conversations between the men and the wives ranged from market matters to maid matters to property prices to public perceptions. My sister made the comment of the morning by stating, “Now I know what retrenched people and millionaires do on Monday mornings.“
In the middle of all this, I am spying on the ships parked out front and over the last couple of months, there has been some activity – some ships have left their parking lots. Whether they left to re-park elsewhere or left on assignments, I don’t know but feedback from my insiders indicate a small increase in shipping activity and a small but growing number of charters heading into the end of the year. Not quite a sign of recovery and probably just anticipating a pick up in shipping that the year end usually experiences. At this point in time, it is prudent to note that although transports have been moving up the charts, it may be too soon to say that they are in recovery mode. The short term trend and strength in this sector can be a profitable trade but definitely too soon to jump in with guns blazing in a buy-and-hold investment strategy.
Check out this very timely posting I found after returning from breakfast:
“Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession“
A timely reminder that defense is the best attitude now was a short but exciting scenario that played out right before my eyes, there at Mac’s in the middle of our conversations.
I watched a cat (with leopard-like “preens“) stealthily prowl up to the next table and prance expertly onto the chair. There it crouched quietly and slowly raised its head so that only its ears and eyes were above the top of the table. A bird (Minah) was busily foraging the left-overs on the table, oblivious to the cat’s presence. The bird was so pre-occupied with getting at the left-over bread in a wrapper that it failed to keep a clear sight of its surroundings, leaving it “blind” on the side where the cat was perched and watching. Then in a lighting-quick leap, very much like what you’d see in a wildlife documentary on Nat Geo, the cat was on the Minah and a life-and-death struggle ensued. The Minah frantically clawed and pecked at the cat’s vunerable nose while the cat stubbornly hung on to the bird with claws and jaws. It was quite a noisy, feathery and messy struggle as the two creatures tangled and rolled off the table onto another chair. In the middle of the drop, the Minah got a split-second reprieve and managed to struggle free. It promptly took flight as the cat instinctively released the bird to land on its paws.
Lessons learned; the Minah represented Greed and how it can blind us to obvious dangers that can strike us when we’re most vunerable. The cat represented Fear and how in protecting one’s self in a moment of danger (falling) we can lose a prize catch. Both creatures ended up as losers after that fight – the bird lost a few feathers and never got its bread while the cat lost its catch but prevented getting its back broken while getting a nastily pecked nose for its troubles.
This is so similar to the daily fight I take to the market. Sometimes you get caught up in a trade and ignore the dangers only to get hurt. Sometimes you get complacent and get hurt bad. Sometimes you take your eye off the ball and get punished for it and sometimes it works out with a little luck.
Now, to top the morning off, it looks like the small-time property flippers’ days are numbered – the government has passed a bill to stop the Interest Absorbtion Scheme (IAS) and the Interest-Only Housing Loans (IOL) with immediate effect.
“Measures to ensure a stable and sustainable property market.“
This and the reinstatement of the Confirmed List for the 1st Half 2010 Government Land Sales (GLS) Programme plus the non-extension of the Jan 2009 Budget assistance measures are going to be a HUGE problem for the property players. Those flippers who can’t afford to play the game and have been taking advantage of easy credit to make easy money at the expense of an unreasonably priced property market are going to be hardest hit. This is also going to put a damper on developers’ and financial institutions’ greed amist a wild and frenzied and hyped-up bubble.
As of the time of this report, property related equities are taking a beating.
Maybe this might bring some sanity to the property market? Maybe I might get that October pull-back I was harping about? Or maybe its too little too late? Whatever happens, it’s still too steep to consider buying anything now or in the immediate near future.
But this could prompt some selling if there are buyers who are dumb enough to take the sellers’ price. If the buyers play it smart, they are likely to take advatage of a squeeze down on prices as some novice flippers panic-sell their holdings. Whatever happens, the tide has turned.
Its been quite a day already and we still have the night trading to come after most of Asia sold off and Europe starts off bearish. DOW futures are down -63.00. I am thankful I took off most of my positions on Friday and kept my shorts on xxx, xx, and xxxx. Happy Anniversary of Lehman’s failure.
Oh, and how did the Morning Breakfast Club end?
The sun rose and starting baking the tent we were under. So by 10:30, we went our separate ways to continue our errands and live out our lives and get back to our busy schedules.
“It just goes to show you that no matter how full your life may seem, there’s always room for a couple of cups of coffee with a friend.” - The Mayonnaise Jar and 2 Cups of Coffee.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider to visit Pattern Trader Tools, leave a comment or subscribe to the feed and get future articles delivered to your feed reader.
The stars nust be aligned for you today I say.
Am thinking when I will be able to head down to Mackkers on a Monday morning for breakkie instead of being stuck in my canned air office..well, at least I have a job and think i should stop bitc***g and be grateful.
Anyhow, nice one on the cat and bird bit…simple yet visually powerful analogy.