What A Weekend!
What a way to celebrate Chinese New Year … “Profit from the Panic” retained its #5 ranking, “Secret Psychology of Millionaire Traders” has hit the bookstores in a big way and is selling like hot cakes (according to my distributor) and I am about to finish the first draft of my next book (no, its not about trading) which should help a lot of people in this time of crisis and help those already affected by it. Having been there and done it more than once, I am hoping to give these people something I didn’t have when I was down – the knowledge to do something for themselves. The book should be due out in May (and I promise it won’t be late!)
Chinese New Year is one of my favorite times of the year because it give me an excuse to GAMBLE! Yup, yours truly made a modest killing at the tables this New Year by winning at Ban Luck (aka Singapore 21). Must have been all the Lo Hei I had tossed leading up to my gamling spree! Must toss more before Chap Go Meh.
The market has been hell too. The week started out optimistically but ended dramatically. I had hoped to finish January 2009 with a little positive run but all that unwound in the last two days of trading to post an average 7% loss for the month on the major benchmarks. This is bad … I mean Bear. Now the January Barometer is leading the year down and the once optimistic analysts and economists are now singing songs of doom and gloom. This is good news! The more they sing of doom, the more likely we are to bloom. Well, that’s the Trader’s opinion at least. But it is bad and it will get much worse before it gets better.
On the economic front, SIngapore is still in denial as residents still have not yet felt the full pinch (or should I say, “grab”) of the situation. More and more are getting hit and feeling the pain but the majority are still living it up as witnessed by their spending habits and daily rituals. In New York, some of the best restaurants have closed down but the same can’t be said for our local culinary scene. Maybe it’s the Chinese New Year’s festive spirit that is creating this illusion or maybe it is denial. We’ll soon find out in the coming weeks.
Remember that I mentioned in a previous post that the number of bankruptcies are an indication of where we are in the economic scale of things? Well, we aren’t even close to the numbers that indicate an economic bottom yet. In fact, the decline hasn’t even started its real potential because bankrupts are either being spared by the insitutions or they have become smarter. But history has proven that sooner or later, the writs of seizures and insolvency declarations will increase and as sure as the sun will rise, bankrupts will repopulate our economy. When this happens, it confirms that we are on the road to economic recovery.
The road to that recovery is going to be long and it will get more difficult as time wears on in this recession. Pray we don’t go into Depression for it will lengthen that journey to recovery.
But with every crisis there is opportunity. And every boom is fraught with danger. There are positives and negatives whereever you look, whenever you look. What do you see?
More importantly, in every crisis, there are winners and losers. Who will you be when we emerge from this, the most drastic downturn in 80 years, a victor or a victim?
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