Conrad’s Christmas Wish List
Dear Santa,
We’ve missed you over the last two years. I’m hoping that you’ll at least pop by for a visit this year to say “Hi!” … it would mean so much to Wall Street.
For two years straight, in 2006 and 2007, after you didn’t come calling, we had IYCs which made everyone so scared. Consumer Sentiment fell into hell and Manufacturing and Production ground to an almost standstill. I stopped being a Bull at the start of 2007 and became a Bear in November that same year. I am still a Bear and won’t stop being one till you grant me 4 wishes for 2009 …
1. Uncle Ben to stop bailing & stimulating
2. A Beautiful Curve that’s not too steep on the T-Bond Yields
3. Manufacturing & Production to stop falling
4. Consumer Expectation to start recovering
But the truth is; even if you popped in today and immediately granted those wishes by some miraculous feat, I still can’t become a Bull for at least 6 months to a year yet. I will stop being a Bear but the Bullish transformation will take some time and will require another list of wishes to come true …
1. A drop or stall in Job Cuts and Foreclosures
2. Consecutive increases in Non-Farm Payrolls into Positives
3. Technology Companies to start producing
4. Financials & HMOs to start stabalizing
Granting this second list of wishes will give me hope that by Christmas next year, I can become a Bull again … but only if you can make my first list happen with a snap of your White Gloved Fingers. I guess it’s impossible so I won’t be unreasonable about it … but just spare a though for Asians wearing Bear suits in S.E. Asia … ITS HOT IN HERE!!
Assuming you take your time and I get my entire first wish list by next Christmas at the earliest, I may have a reason to take off my Bear suit and start dusting off the Bull tux. I can’t put on the Bull tux till probably April 2010 or after May of 2010. Assuming you grant me my second list in June of 2010, I might think about putting on that Bull tux.
But before I start thinking of becoming a Bull again, I need your help in fulfilling my last list of wishes. Here’s my list of 8 Lucky Wishes for X’mas 2010 …
1. Consistently Increasing Volumes on Bullish Days
2. The 200DSMA to fall below all Benchmarks Indices
3. A 15 to 20 Point VIX
4. Slow ‘n’ Steady GDP Growth
5. A Steady-to-Normal T-Bond Yield Curve
6. The Start of Interest Rate Hikes
7. Steady Growth in Manufacturing & Production
8. Rising Consumer Expectations
When I do get these final 8 wishes, I will become a Bull again in about 3 to 6 months later. And if I do, I know I will be wearing the Bull Tux for at least 4 years till the end of 2015. But none of my wishes will come true, Santa, if you give Wall Street a miss again this year for the third year running. My Bearish state will remain for another year and all my Bullish transformational plans will be for nought till you choose to visit us again.
We miss you Santa.
With all my Bullish hopes pinned on you …
Conrad Alvin Lim
P.S. If you’ve been laid off or have been experiencing pay-cuts or bonus depravation … or if you’ve been retrenched, I’ll understand if you don’t visit us this year again. But there’s always hope! Now, all you have to do is send an email to: where’s_santa’s_bailout?@bailmeoutobama.com
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